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Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is central to data-driven decision-making, yet industrial applications often face a fundamental tension between limited randomized controlled trial (RCT) budgets and abundant but biased…

We investigate a continuous-time investment-consumption problem with model uncertainty in a general diffusion-based market with random model coefficients. We assume that a power utility investor is ambiguity-averse, with the preference to…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-04 Len Patrick Dominic M. Garces , Yang Shen

This paper studies the bunching identification strategy for an elasticity parameter that summarizes agents' responses to changes in slope (kink) or intercept (notch) of a schedule of incentives. We show that current bunching methods may be…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-06-27 Marinho Bertanha , Andrew H. McCallum , Nathan Seegert

We address the problem of learning a decision policy from observational data of past decisions in contexts with features and associated outcomes. The past policy maybe unknown and in safety-critical applications, such as medical decision…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-04 Muhammad Osama , Dave Zachariah , Peter Stoica

We design mechanisms for online procurement of data held by strategic agents for machine learning tasks. The challenge is to use past data to actively price future data and give learning guarantees even when an agent's cost for revealing…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2015-06-09 Jacob Abernethy , Yiling Chen , Chien-Ju Ho , Bo Waggoner

Conjoint experiments randomize multidimensional profiles, offering a powerful design for recovering structural preference parameters -- including marginal rates of substitution, willingness to pay, and the distribution of preferences across…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Avidit Acharya , Jens Hainmueller , Yiqing Xu

We introduce two data-driven procedures for optimal estimation and inference in nonparametric models using instrumental variables. The first is a data-driven choice of sieve dimension for a popular class of sieve two-stage least squares…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-01-09 Xiaohong Chen , Timothy Christensen , Sid Kankanala

We introduce a novel, biologically plausible local learning rule that provably increases the robustness of neural dynamics to noise in nonlinear recurrent neural networks with homogeneous nonlinearities. Our learning rule achieves higher…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2022-10-12 Christopher H. Stock , Sarah E. Harvey , Samuel A. Ocko , Surya Ganguli

We consider a model of optimal investment and consumption with both habit formation and partial observations in incomplete It\^{o} processes market. The investor chooses his consumption under the addictive habits constraint while only…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-08-12 Xiang Yu

The Random Utility Maximization model is by far the most adopted framework to estimate consumer choice behavior. However, behavioral economics has provided strong empirical evidence of irrational choice behavior, such as halo effects, that…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-09-10 Sanjay Dominik Jena , Andrea Lodi , Claudio Sole

When tracking user-specific online activities, each user's preference is revealed in the form of choices and comparisons. For example, a user's purchase history is a record of her choices, i.e. which item was chosen among a subset of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-01 Sahand Negahban , Sewoong Oh , Kiran K. Thekumparampil , Jiaming Xu

First-price auctions have recently gained significant traction in digital advertising markets, exemplified by Google's transition from second-price to first-price auctions. Unlike in second-price auctions, where bidding one's private…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Zihao Hu , Xiaoyu Fan , Yuan Yao , Jiheng Zhang , Zhengyuan Zhou

We study risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) based on an entropic risk measure in episodic non-stationary Markov decision processes (MDPs). Both the reward functions and the state transition kernels are unknown and allowed to vary…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-22 Yuhao Ding , Ming Jin , Javad Lavaei

A dynamical model is introduced for the formation of a bullish or bearish trends driving an asset price in a given market. Initially, each agent decides to buy or sell according to its personal opinion, which results from the combination of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2011-06-09 Serge Galam

Studies of human decision-making demonstrate that environmental regularities, such as natural image statistics or intentionally nonuniform stimulus probabilities, can be exploited to improve efficiency (termed `efficient-coding').…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2025-09-30 Holly Kular , Robert Kim , John Serences , Nuttida Rungratsameetaweemana

We consider un-discounted reinforcement learning (RL) in Markov decision processes (MDPs) under temporal drifts, ie, both the reward and state transition distributions are allowed to evolve over time, as long as their respective total…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-19 Wang Chi Cheung , David Simchi-Levi , Ruihao Zhu

We propose a simple and general framework for nonparametric estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects under fairness constraints. Under standard regularity conditions, we show that the resulting estimators possess the double robustness…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-21 Kwangho Kim , José R. Zubizarreta

In this paper, we study the contextual dynamic pricing problem where the market value of a product is linear in its observed features plus some market noise. Products are sold one at a time, and only a binary response indicating success or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-05 Jianqing Fan , Yongyi Guo , Mengxin Yu

Primates utilize distributed neural circuits to learn habits in uncertain environments, but the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. We propose a formal theory of network energetics explaining how brain states influence…

We study how a decision-maker (DM) learns from data of unknown quality to form robust, ''general-purpose'' posterior beliefs. We develop a framework for robust learning and belief formation under a minimax-regret criterion, cast as a…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-02-18 Yeon-Koo Che , Longjian Li , Tianling Luo
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