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Large language models are trained to refuse harmful requests, but can they accurately predict when they will refuse before responding? We investigate this question through a systematic study where models first predict their refusal…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-02 Tanay Gondil

Trustworthy evaluations of dangerous capabilities are increasingly crucial for determining whether an AI system is safe to deploy. One empirically demonstrated threat is sandbagging - the strategic underperformance on evaluations by AI…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2025-11-03 Chloe Li , Mary Phuong , Noah Y. Siegel

State-of-the-art efficient model-based Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms typically act by iteratively solving empirical models, i.e., by performing \emph{full-planning} on Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) built by the gathered…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-01 Yonathan Efroni , Nadav Merlis , Mohammad Ghavamzadeh , Shie Mannor

Model developers implement safeguards in frontier models to prevent misuse, for example, by employing classifiers to filter dangerous outputs. In this work, we demonstrate that even robustly safeguarded models can be used to elicit harmful…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Jackson Kaunismaa , Avery Griffin , John Hughes , Christina Q. Knight , Mrinank Sharma , Erik Jones

For an autonomous agent, executing a poor policy may be costly or even dangerous. For such agents, it is desirable to determine confidence interval lower bounds on the performance of any given policy without executing said policy. Current…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-09-25 Josiah P. Hanna , Peter Stone , Scott Niekum

As autonomous agents become more capable of performing real-world tasks, distinguishing scheming behavior from benign task pursuit may become a central AI control problem. Existing monitors often rely on chain-of-thought access or internal…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Aditya Sinha , Akshat Naik , Victor Gillioz , Simon Storf , Kilian Merkelbach , Rich Barton-Cooper , Axel Højmark , Marius Hobbhahn

Advances in training, post-training, and inference-time methods have enabled frontier reasoning models to win gold medals in math competitions and settle challenging open problems. Gaining trust in the responses of these models requires…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-06 Aaditya Naik , Guruprerana Shabadi , Rajeev Alur , Mayur Naik

Despite achieving remarkable performance on many image classification tasks, state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) classifiers remain vulnerable to small input perturbations. Especially, the existence of adversarial examples raises…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-06 David Mickisch , Felix Assion , Florens Greßner , Wiebke Günther , Mariele Motta

In this work, we highlight and perform a comprehensive study on calibration attacks, a form of adversarial attacks that aim to trap victim models to be heavily miscalibrated without altering their predicted labels, hence endangering the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Stephen Obadinma , Xiaodan Zhu , Hongyu Guo

An AI control protocol is a plan for usefully deploying AI systems that aims to prevent an AI from intentionally causing some unacceptable outcome. This paper investigates how well AI systems can generate and act on their own strategies for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-07 Alex Mallen , Charlie Griffin , Misha Wagner , Alessandro Abate , Buck Shlegeris

Imitation learning has enabled robots to perform complex, long-horizon tasks in challenging dexterous manipulation settings. As new methods are developed, they must be rigorously evaluated and compared against corresponding baselines…

In this paper, we analyze the asymptotic behavior of the main characteristics of the mean-variance efficient frontier employing random matrix theory. Our particular interest covers the case when the dimension $p$ and the sample size $n$…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-24 Taras Bodnar , Nikolaus Hautsch , Yarema Okhrin , Nestor Parolya

Most bandit policies are designed to either minimize regret in any problem instance, making very few assumptions about the underlying environment, or in a Bayesian sense, assuming a prior distribution over environment parameters. The former…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-07 Branislav Kveton , Martin Mladenov , Chih-Wei Hsu , Manzil Zaheer , Csaba Szepesvari , Craig Boutilier

An agent must try new behaviors to explore and improve. In high-stakes environments, an agent that violates safety constraints may cause harm and must be taken offline, curtailing any future interaction. Imitating old behavior is safe, but…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-17 Drew Prinster , Clara Fannjiang , Ji Won Park , Kyunghyun Cho , Anqi Liu , Suchi Saria , Samuel Stanton

We introduce a framework for calibrating machine learning models so that their predictions satisfy explicit, finite-sample statistical guarantees. Our calibration algorithms work with any underlying model and (unknown) data-generating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-03 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates , Emmanuel J. Candès , Michael I. Jordan , Lihua Lei

We present swarm-attack, an open-source adversarial testing framework in which multiple lightweight LLM agents coordinate through shared memory, parallel exploration, and evolutionary optimization. Together, our results demonstrate that…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Michael A. Riegler , Inga Strümke

We present a quantitative model for tracking dangerous AI capabilities over time. Our goal is to help the policy and research community visualise how dangerous capability testing can give us an early warning about approaching AI risks. We…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Paolo Bova , Alessandro Di Stefano , The Anh Han

We localize the policy routing mechanism in alignment-trained language models. An intermediate-layer attention gate reads detected content and triggers deeper amplifier heads that boost the signal toward refusal. In smaller models the gate…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-04 Gregory N. Frank

Early-Exit Deep Neural Networks enable adaptive inference by allowing prediction at intermediary layers, significantly reducing computational costs and latency. Most of the early exit strategies greedily exit a sample at an intermediary…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Divya Jyoti Bajpai , Manjesh Kumar Hanawal

When predictions are performative, the choice of which predictor to deploy influences the distribution of future observations. The overarching goal in learning under performativity is to find a predictor that has low \emph{performative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-29 Licong Lin , Tijana Zrnic