Related papers: Beyond the Big Jump: A Perturbative Approach to St…
In this paper, we introduce a mathematical apparatus that is relevant for understanding a dynamical system with small random perturbations and coupled with the so-called transmutation process -- where the latter jumps from one mode to…
Condensation phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and are found in condensed matter, disordered systems, networks, finance, etc. In the present work we investigate one of the best frameworks in which condensation phenomena take place, namely,…
Let (Z_n)_{n\in\N_0} be a d-dimensional random walk in random scenery, i.e., Z_n=\sum_{k=0}^{n-1}Y_{S_k} with (S_k)_{k\in\N_0} a random walk in Z^d and (Y_z)_{z\in Z^d} an i.i.d. scenery, independent of the walk. We assume that the random…
The extremes of a univariate Markov chain with regulary varying stationary marginal distribution and asymptotically linear behavior are known to exhibit a multiplicative random walk structure called the tail chain. In this paper, we extend…
The probability and structure of co-occurrences of extreme values in multivariate data may critically depend on auxiliary information provided by covariates. In this contribution, we develop a flexible generalized additive modeling…
We study asymptotic properties of spatially non-homogeneous random walks with non-integrable increments, including transience, almost-sure bounds, and existence and non-existence of moments for first-passage and last-exit times. In our…
For a numerical sequence ${a_n}$ satisfying broad assumptions on its "behaviour on average" and a random walk $S_n=\xi_1 +...+\xi_n$ with i.i.d. jumps $\xi_j$ with positive mean $\mu$, we establish the asymptotic behaviour of the sums…
In this work we propose a model to describe the statistical fluctuations of the self-driven objects (species A) walking against an opposite crowd (species B) in order to simulate the regime characterized by stop-and-go waves in the context…
Despite the successes of probabilistic models based on passing noise through neural networks, recent work has identified that such methods often fail to capture tail behavior accurately, unless the tails of the base distribution are…
We study numerically the distributions of the length $L$ of the longest increasing subsequence (LIS) for the two cases of random permutations and of one-dimensional random walks. Using sophisticated large-deviation algorithms, we are able…
Highly-diverse ecosystems exhibit a broad distribution of population sizes and species turnover, where species at high and low abundances are exchanged over time. We show that these two features generically emerge in the fluctuating phase…
We show that the quotient of Levy processes of jump-diffusion type has a fat-tailed distribution. An application is to price theory in economics. We show that fat tails arise endogenously from modeling of price change based on an excess…
For percolating systems, we propose a universal exponent relation connecting the leading corrections to scaling of the cluster size distribution with the dynamic corrections to the asymptotic transport behaviour at criticality. Our…
In a variety of problems in pure and applied probability, it is of relevant to study the large exceedance probabilities of the perpetuity sequence $Y_n := B_1 + A_1 B_2 + \cdots + (A_1 \cdots A_{n-1}) B_n$, where $(A_i,B_i) \subset…
In this paper we first provide several conditional limit theorems for L\'evy processes with negative drift and regularly varying tail. Then we apply them to study the asymptotic behavior of expectations of some exponential functionals of…
We consider a one-dimensional random walk $S_n$ with i.i.d. increments with zero mean and finite variance. We study the asymptotic expansion for the tail distribution $\mathbf P(\tau_x>n)$ of the first passage times…
Consider a random walk $S=(S_n:n\geq 0)$ that is ``perturbed'' by a stationary sequence $(\xi_n:n\geq 0)$ to produce the process $(S_n+\xi_n:n\geq0)$. This paper is concerned with computing the distribution of the all-time maximum…
This paper considers population processes in which general, not necessarily Markovian, multivariate Hawkes processes dictate the stochastic arrivals. We establish results to determine the corresponding time-dependent joint probability…
We reconsider a classical, well-studied problem from applied probability. This is the max-sum equivalence of randomly weighted sums, and the originality is because we manage to include interdependence among the primary random variables, as…
A mass ejection model in a time-dependent random environment with both temporal and spatial correlations is introduced. When the environment has a finite correlation length, individual particle trajectories are found to diffuse at large…