Related papers: A Laplace-based perspective on conditional mean ri…
We present large sample results for partitioning-based least squares nonparametric regression, a popular method for approximating conditional expectation functions in statistics, econometrics, and machine learning. First, we obtain a…
We propose a new family of error distributions for model-based quantile regression, which is constructed through a structured mixture of normal distributions. The construction enables fixing specific percentiles of the distribution while,…
Generative models are powerful tools for sampling from a learned distribution $\mathcal{P}(Y \mid X)$, and inverse-design methods invert this map to find an input $x$ that produces a desired point output $y^*$. However, many design goals…
In this note, we consider the performance of the classic method of moments for parameter estimation of symmetric variance-gamma (generalized Laplace) distributions. We do this through both theoretical analysis (multivariate delta method)…
We introduce a class of continuous-time bivariate phase-type distributions for modeling dependencies from common shocks. The construction uses continuous-time Markov processes that evolve identically until an internal common-shock event,…
State-space models are pivotal for dynamic system analysis but often struggle with outlier data that deviates from Gaussian distributions, frequently exhibiting skewness and heavy tails. This paper introduces a robust extension utilizing…
We propose a novel framework to solve risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) problems where the agent optimises time-consistent dynamic spectral risk measures. Based on the notion of conditional elicitability, our methodology constructs…
In this paper, we discuss the utilization of perturbed risk levels (PRLs) for the solution of chance-constrained problems via sampling-based approaches. PRLs allow the consideration of distributional ambiguity by rescaling the risk level of…
In Bayesian inference, predictive distributions are typically in the form of samples generated via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or related algorithms. In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of how to make and evaluate…
We propose a new framework of XGBoost that predicts the entire conditional distribution of a univariate response variable. In particular, XGBoostLSS models all moments of a parametric distribution (i.e., mean, location, scale and shape…
Conditional Mutual Information (CMI) is a measure of conditional dependence between random variables X and Y, given another random variable Z. It can be used to quantify conditional dependence among variables in many data-driven inference…
In this article we develop a new method for summarizing a ranking distribution, \textit{i.e.} a probability distribution on the symmetric group $\mathfrak{S}_n$, beyond the classical theory of consensus and Kemeny medians. Based on the…
In this paper, we consider risk-sensitive sequential decision-making in Reinforcement Learning (RL). Our contributions are two-fold. First, we introduce a novel and coherent quantification of risk, namely composite risk, which quantifies…
Determining risk contributions of unit exposures to portfolio-wide economic capital is an important task in financial risk management. Computing risk contributions involves difficulties caused by rare-event simulations. In this study, we…
Motivated by the need to analyze continuously updated data sets in the context of time-to-event modeling, we propose a novel nonparametric approach to estimate the conditional hazard function given a set of continuous and discrete…
A new notion of stochastic ordering is introduced to compare multivariate stochastic risk models with respect to extreme portfolio losses. In the framework of multivariate regular variation comparison criteria are derived in terms of…
Optimizing risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of a general loss distribution is usually difficult, because 1) the loss function might lack structural properties such as convexity or…
Recent studies about cryptocurrency returns show that its distribution can be highly-peaked, skewed, and heavy-tailed, with a large excess kurtosis. To accommodate all these peculiarities, we propose the asymmetric Laplace scale mixture…
Beyond conditional average treatment effects, treatments may impact the entire outcome distribution in covariate-dependent ways, for example, by altering the variance or tail risks for specific subpopulations. We propose a novel estimand to…
The systematic collection of longitudinal data is very common in practice, making mixed models widely used. Most developments around these models focus on modeling the mean trajectory of repeated measurements, typically under the assumption…