Related papers: A simple integral representation of single-event s…

Proper scoring rules are methods for encouraging honest assessment of probability distributions. Just like likelihood, a proper scoring rule can be applied to supply an unbiased estimating equation for any statistical model, and the theory…

A recently proposed integral representation for permanents is rederived using only elementary combinatorics. For this proof the assumption that the matrix, for which the permanent is calculated, has an inverse is not necessary.

A discrete-event approach, which has already been shown to give a cause-and-effect explanation of many quantum optics experiments, is applied to single-neutron interferometry experiments. The simulation algorithm yields a logically…

Scoring rules are used to evaluate the quality of predictions that take the form of probability distributions. A scoring rule is strictly proper if its expected value is uniquely minimized by the true probability distribution. One of the…

For a single equation in a system of linear equations, estimation by instrumental variables is the standard approach. In practice, however, it is often difficult to find valid instruments. This paper proposes a maximum likelihood method…

This paper shows that sequential statistical analysis techniques can be generalised to the problem of selecting between alternative forecasting methods using scoring rules. A return to basic principles is necessary in order to show that…

Obtaining a non-parametric expression for an interventional distribution is one of the most fundamental tasks in causal inference. Such an expression can be obtained for an identifiable causal effect by an algorithm or by manual application…

We demonstrate the successful use of scattering representations without further compression for simulation-based inference (SBI) with images (i.e. field-level), illustrated with a cosmological case study. Scattering representations provide…

Scoring rules measure the deviation between a probabilistic forecast and reality. Strictly proper scoring rules have the property that for any forecast, the mathematical expectation of the score of a forecast p by the lights of p is…

We discuss a discrete-event simulation approach, which has been shown to give a unified cause-and-effect description of many quantum optics and single-neutron interferometry experiments. The event-based simulation algorithm does not require…

We present a fixpoint semantics of event systems. The semantics is presented in a general framework without concerns of fairness. Soundness and completeness of rules for deriving "leads-to" properties are proved in this general framework.…

We provide self-contained proof of a theorem relating probabilistic coherence of forecasts to their non-domination by rival forecasts with respect to any proper scoring rule. The theorem appears to be new but is closely related to results…

We use recurrence equations (alias difference equations) to enumerate the number of formula-representations of positive integers using only addition and multiplication, and using addition, multiplication, and exponentiation, where all the…

Induction of common sense knowledge about prototypical sequences of events has recently received much attention. Instead of inducing this knowledge in the form of graphs, as in much of the previous work, in our method, distributed…

A discrete-event simulation approach which provides a cause-and-effect description of many experiments with photons and neutrons exhibiting interference and entanglement is applied to a recent single-neutron experiment that tests…

In this talk - based on the results of a forthcoming paper (Coletti, Scozzafava and Vantaggi 2002), presented also by one of us at the Conference on "Non Classical Logic, Approximate Reasoning and Soft-Computing" (Anacapri, Italy, 2001) -…

In previous work the authors found integral formulas for probabilities in the asymmetric simple exclusion process (ASEP) on the integer lattice. The dynamics are uniquely determined once the initial state is specified. In this note we…

We provide a simple approach for the evaluation of inverse integral transforms that does not require any knowledge of complex analysis. The central idea behind the method is to reduce the inverse transform to the solution of an ordinary…

A novel single-frame quaternion estimator processing two vector observations is introduced. The singular cases are examined, and appropriate rotational solutions are provided. Additionally, an alternative method involving sequential…

Simple games cover voting systems in which a single alternative, such as a bill or an amendment, is pitted against the status quo. A simple game or a yes-no voting system is a set of rules that specifies exactly which collections of ``yea''…