Related papers: Targeted Local Projections
Nonlinear vector autoregression (NVAR) and reservoir computing (RC) have shown promise in forecasting chaotic dynamical systems, such as the Lorenz-63 model and El Nino-Southern Oscillation. However, their reliance on fixed nonlinear…
For supervised classification problems, this paper considers estimating the query's label probability through local regression using observed covariates. Well-known nonparametric kernel smoother and $k$-nearest neighbor ($k$-NN) estimator,…
Shuffled linear regression (SLR) seeks to estimate latent features through a linear transformation, complicated by unknown permutations in the measurement dimensions. This problem extends traditional least-squares (LS) and Least Absolute…
The goal of image oversegmentation is to divide an image into several pieces, each of which should ideally be part of an object. One of the simplest and yet most effective oversegmentation algorithms is known as local variation (LV)…
With the dramatic increase of dimensions in the data representation, extracting latent low-dimensional features becomes of the utmost importance for efficient classification. Aiming at the problems of unclear margin representation and…
Recent economic events, including the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic, have exposed limitations in linear Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) models for forecasting and structural analysis. Nonlinear dimension…
Attention-based architectures have become ubiquitous in time series forecasting tasks, including spatio-temporal (STF) and long-term time series forecasting (LTSF). Yet, our understanding of the reasons for their effectiveness remains…
The availability of data on economic uncertainty sparked a lot of interest in models that can timely quantify episodes of international spillovers of uncertainty. This challenging task involves trading off estimation accuracy for more…
The Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) model is fundamental to the study of multivariate time series. Although VAR models are intensively investigated by many researchers, practitioners often show more interest in analyzing VARX models that…
Advancing loss function design is pivotal for optimizing neural network training and performance. This work introduces Random Linear Projections (RLP) loss, a novel approach that enhances training efficiency by leveraging geometric…
Shrinkage estimators that possess the ability to produce sparse solutions have become increasingly important to the analysis of today's complex datasets. Examples include the LASSO, the Elastic-Net and their adaptive counterparts.…
The non-linear autoregressive (NLAR) model plays an important role in modeling and predicting time series. One-step ahead prediction is straightforward using the NLAR model, but the multi-step ahead prediction is cumbersome. For instance,…
State-dependent local projections (LPs) are widely used to estimate how impulse responses to exogenous aggregate shocks vary as a function of observable state variables, yet their causal interpretation remains unclear. We show that LPs…
This paper provides an alternative to penalized estimators for estimation and vari- able selection in high dimensional linear regression models with measurement error or missing covariates. We propose estimation via bias corrected least…
We consider the problem of computationally-efficient prediction from high dimensional and highly correlated predictors in challenging settings where accurate variable selection is effectively impossible. Direct application of penalization…
Asymmetry along with heteroscedasticity or contamination often occurs with the growth of data dimensionality. In ultra-high dimensional data analysis, such irregular settings are usually overlooked for both theoretical and computational…
We consider the problem of computationally-efficient prediction with high dimensional and highly correlated predictors when accurate variable selection is effectively impossible. Direct application of penalization or Bayesian methods…
In this paper, we propose a new nonparametric estimator of time-varying forecast combination weights. When the number of individual forecasts is small, we study the asymptotic properties of the local linear estimator. When the number of…
This paper proposes a multi-step probabilistic forecasting framework using a single neural-network based model to generate simultaneous point and interval forecasts. Our approach ensures non-crossing prediction intervals (PIs) through a…
Efron et al. (2004) introduced least angle regression (LAR) as an algorithm for linear predictions, intended as an alternative to forward selection with connections to penalized regression. However, LAR has remained somewhat of a "black…