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We hypothesize that optimal system responses emerge from adaptive strategies grounded in causal and counterfactual knowledge. Counterfactual inference allows us to create hypothetical scenarios to examine the effects of alternative system…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Donghuo Zeng , Roberto Legaspi , Yuewen Sun , Xinshuai Dong , Kazushi Ikeda , Peter Spirtes , Kun Zhang

This research addresses the challenge of conducting interpretable causal inference between a binary treatment and its resulting outcome when not all confounders are known. Confounders are factors that have an influence on both the treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Sohaib Kiani , Jared Barton , Jon Sushinsky , Lynda Heimbach , Bo Luo

No unmeasured confounding is a common assumption when reasoning about counterfactual outcomes, but such an assumption may not be plausible in observational studies. Sensitivity analysis is often employed to assess the robustness of causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-20 Abhinandan Dalal , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

The field of explainability in artificial intelligence (AI) has witnessed a growing number of studies and increasing scholarly interest. However, the lack of human-friendly and individual interpretations in explaining the outcomes of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Toygar Tanyel , Serkan Ayvaz , Bilgin Keserci

Along with the increasing availability of health data has come the rise of data-driven models to inform decision-making and policy. These models have the potential to benefit both patients and health care providers but can also exacerbate…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-16 Solvejg Wastvedt , Jared Huling , Julian Wolfson

Causal effect identification typically requires a fully specified causal graph, which can be difficult to obtain in practice. We provide a sufficient criterion for identifying causal effects from a candidate set of Markov equivalence…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-19 Kai Z. Teh , Kayvan Sadeghi , Terry Soo

Modern Artificial Intelligence achieves remarkable predictive power by optimizing statistical risk functionals over vast corpora. Yet a gap separates this from genuine intelligence: the inability to distinguish correlation from causation.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-26 Ernest Fokoué

To act safely and ethically in the real world, agents must be able to reason about harm and avoid harmful actions. However, to date there is no statistical method for measuring harm and factoring it into algorithmic decisions. In this paper…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-11-03 Jonathan G. Richens , Rory Beard , Daniel H. Thompson

While recent years have witnessed the emergence of various explainable methods in machine learning, to what degree the explanations really represent the reasoning process behind the model prediction -- namely, the faithfulness of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-09-07 Yingqiang Ge , Shuchang Liu , Zelong Li , Shuyuan Xu , Shijie Geng , Yunqi Li , Juntao Tan , Fei Sun , Yongfeng Zhang

Providing effective guidance for users has long been an important and challenging task for efficient exploratory visual analytics, especially when selecting variables for visualization in high-dimensional datasets. Correlation is the most…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-10-18 Arran Zeyu Wang , David Borland , David Gotz

Machine learning promises to revolutionize clinical decision making and diagnosis. In medical diagnosis a doctor aims to explain a patient's symptoms by determining the diseases \emph{causing} them. However, existing diagnostic algorithms…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-17 Jonathan G. Richens , Ciaran M. Lee , Saurabh Johri

Data fusion techniques integrate information from heterogeneous data sources to improve learning, generalization, and decision making across data sciences. In causal inference, these methods leverage rich observational data to improve…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-02 Quinn Lanners , Cynthia Rudin , Alexander Volfovsky , Harsh Parikh

Answering counterfactual queries has important applications such as explainability, robustness, and fairness but is challenging when the causal variables are unobserved and the observations are non-linear mixtures of these latent variables,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-16 Zeyu Zhou , Ruqi Bai , Sean Kulinski , Murat Kocaoglu , David I. Inouye

Causal structure discovery methods are commonly applied to structured data where the causal variables are known and where statistical testing can be used to assess the causal relationships. By contrast, recovering a causal structure from…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Gaël Gendron , Jože M. Rožanec , Michael Witbrock , Gillian Dobbie

Judea Pearl's do-calculus provides a foundation for causal inference, but its translation to continuous generative models remains fraught with geometric challenges. We establish the fundamental limits of such interventions. We define the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-19 Rui Wu , Hong Xie , Yongjun Li

We consider identification and inference about a counterfactual outcome mean when there is unmeasured confounding using tools from proximal causal inference (Miao et al. [2018], Tchetgen Tchetgen et al. [2020]). Proximal causal inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-03 Jeffrey Zhang , Wei Li , Wang Miao , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Counterfactual reasoning, a hallmark of intelligence, consists of three steps: inferring latent variables from observations (abduction), constructing alternatives (interventions), and predicting their outcomes (prediction). This skill is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-03 Aniket Vashishtha , Qirun Dai , Hongyuan Mei , Amit Sharma , Chenhao Tan , Hao Peng

Estimating counterfactual distributions under interventions is central to treatment risk assessment and counterfactual generation tasks. Existing approaches model the counterfactual distribution as a standalone generative target, without…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-11 Hugh Dance , Johnny Xi , Peter Orbanz , Benjamin Bloem-Reddy

Counterfactual explanations are a widely used approach in Explainable AI, offering actionable insights into decision-making by illustrating how small changes to input data can lead to different outcomes. Despite their importance, evaluating…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2025-04-22 Marharyta Domnich , Rasmus Moorits Veski , Julius Välja , Kadi Tulver , Raul Vicente

The fusion of causal models with deep learning introducing increasingly intricate data sets, such as the causal associations within images or between textual components, has surfaced as a focal research area. Nonetheless, the broadening of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-03 Hang Chen , Keqing Du , Chenguang Li , Xinyu Yang
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