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In this paper we present a discussion of the basic aspects of the well-known problem of prediction and inference in physics, with specific attention to the role of models, the use of data and the application of recent developments in…

General Physics · Physics 2024-10-07 Luca Gammaitoni , Angelo Vulpiani

Inference amortization methods share information across multiple posterior-inference problems, allowing each to be carried out more efficiently. Generally, they require the inversion of the dependency structure in the generative model, as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-30 Stefan Webb , Adam Golinski , Robert Zinkov , N. Siddharth , Tom Rainforth , Yee Whye Teh , Frank Wood

The notion of uncertainty is of major importance in machine learning and constitutes a key element of machine learning methodology. In line with the statistical tradition, uncertainty has long been perceived as almost synonymous with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-24 Eyke Hüllermeier , Willem Waegeman

The diffusion of AI and big data is reshaping decision-making processes by increasing the amount of information that supports decisions while reducing direct interaction with data and empirical evidence. This paradigm shift introduces new…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Mario Angelelli , Massimiliano Gervasi

Modern learning systems increasingly rely on amortized learning - the idea of reusing computation or inductive biases shared across tasks to enable rapid generalization to novel problems. This principle spans a range of approaches,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Sarthak Mittal , Divyat Mahajan , Guillaume Lajoie , Mohammad Pezeshki

The rapid adoption of generative artificial intelligence (AI) is accelerating content creation and modification. For example, variations of a given content, be it text or images, can be created almost instantly and at a low cost. This will…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Javier Conde , Miguel González , Gonzalo Martínez , Fernando Moral , Elena Merino-Gómez , Pedro Reviriego

Attention mechanism is effective in both focusing the deep learning models on relevant features and interpreting them. However, attentions may be unreliable since the networks that generate them are often trained in a weakly-supervised…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-11 Jay Heo , Hae Beom Lee , Saehoon Kim , Juho Lee , Kwang Joon Kim , Eunho Yang , Sung Ju Hwang

Bayesian inference promises to ground and improve the performance of deep neural networks. It promises to be robust to overfitting, to simplify the training procedure and the space of hyperparameters, and to provide a calibrated measure of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-12 Jonathan Heek , Nal Kalchbrenner

We suggest a general approach to quantification of different forms of aleatoric uncertainty in regression tasks performed by artificial neural networks. It is based on the simultaneous training of two neural networks with a joint loss…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-05 Pavel Gurevich , Hannes Stuke

We consider the Ensemble Kalman Inversion which has been recently introduced as an efficient, gradient-free optimisation method to estimate unknown parameters in an inverse setting. In the case of large data sets, the Ensemble Kalman…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-12-05 Matei Hanu , Jonas Latz , Claudia Schillings

We develop a technique for automatically detecting the classification errors of a pre-trained visual classifier. Our method is agnostic to the form of the classifier, requiring access only to classifier responses to a set of inputs. We…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-04-04 Yuval Bahat , Gregory Shakhnarovich

Self-supervised learning is a powerful paradigm for representation learning on unlabelled images. A wealth of effective new methods based on instance matching rely on data-augmentation to drive learning, and these have reached a rough…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-10-11 Linus Ericsson , Henry Gouk , Timothy M. Hospedales

Machine learning models that are developed with invariance to certain types of data transformations have demonstrated superior generalization performance in practice. However, the underlying mechanism that explains why invariance leads to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-24 Sicheng Zhu , Bang An , Furong Huang

The framework of reinforcement learning or optimal control provides a mathematical formalization of intelligent decision making that is powerful and broadly applicable. While the general form of the reinforcement learning problem enables…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-22 Sergey Levine

Aleatoric uncertainty is an intrinsic property of ill-posed inverse and imaging problems. Its quantification is vital for assessing the reliability of relevant point estimates. In this paper, we propose an efficient framework for…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-01-16 Chen Zhang , Bangti Jin

Inverse problems and, in particular, inferring unknown or latent parameters from data are ubiquitous in engineering simulations. A predominant viewpoint in identifying unknown parameters is Bayesian inference where both prior information…

Computation · Statistics 2022-08-31 Vahid Keshavarzzadeh , Robert M. Kirby , Akil Narayan

The Bayesian uncertainty quantification technique has become well established in turbulence modeling over the past few years. However, it is computationally expensive to construct a globally accurate surrogate model for Bayesian inference…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-03-16 Fanzhi Zeng , Wei Zhang , Jinping Li , Tianxin Zhang , Chao Yan

Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying…

Study samples often differ from the target populations of inference and policy decisions in non-random ways. Researchers typically believe that such departures from random sampling -- due to changes in the population over time and space, or…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-20 Tamara Broderick , Ryan Giordano , Rachael Meager

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have achieved state-of-the-art results on many visual recognition tasks. However, current CNN models still exhibit a poor ability to be invariant to spatial transformations of images. Intuitively, with…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-12-04 Xu Shen , Xinmei Tian , Anfeng He , Shaoyan Sun , Dacheng Tao
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