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Specimens are collected from $N$ different sources. Each specimen has probability $p$ of being contaminated (e.g., in the case of an infectious disease, $p$ is the prevalence rate), independently of the other specimens. In many cases group…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-31 Vassilis G. Papanicolaou

How should researchers analyze randomized experiments in which the main outcome is latent and measured in multiple ways but each measure contains some degree of error? We first identify a critical study-specific noncomparability problem in…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-13 Jiawei Fu , Donald P. Green

In this paper we explore partial coherence as a tool for evaluating causal influence of one signal sequence on another. In some cases the signal sequence is sampled from a time- or space-series. The key idea is to establish a connection…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-12-09 Louis L. Scharf , Yuan Wang

Most of the metrics used for detecting a causal relationship among multiple time series ignore the effects of practical measurement impairments, such as finite sample effects, undersampling and measurement noise. It has been shown that…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-03 Rahul Devendra , Ribhu Chopra , Kumar Appaiah

Causal inference from observational data can be viewed as a missing data problem arising from a hypothetical population-scale randomized trial matched to the observational study. This links a target trial protocol with a corresponding…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-27 Andrew Yiu , Edwin Fong , Stephen Walker , Chris Holmes

Prior work applying semiparametric theory to causal inference has primarily focused on deriving estimators that exhibit statistical robustness under a prespecified causal model that permits identification of a desired causal parameter.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-02 Junhui Yang , Rohit Bhattacharya , Youjin Lee , Ted Westling

Observational studies are valuable for estimating the effects of various medical interventions, but are notoriously difficult to evaluate because the methods used in observational studies require many untestable assumptions. This lack of…

Applications · Statistics 2022-09-14 Ethan Steinberg , Nikolaos Ignatiadis , Steve Yadlowsky , Yizhe Xu , Nigam H. Shah

Probabilities of causation play a crucial role in modern decision-making. Pearl defined three binary probabilities of causation, the probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS), the probability of sufficiency (PS), and the probability of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-10-18 Ang Li , Judea Pearl

We show how binary classification methods developed to work on i.i.d. data can be used for solving statistical problems that are seemingly unrelated to classification and concern highly-dependent time series. Specifically, the problems of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-06-10 Daniil Ryabko , Jérémie Mary

We study the adversarial binary hypothesis testing problem in the sequential setting. Associated with each hypothesis is a closed, convex set of distributions. Given the hypothesis, each observation is generated according to a distribution…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2025-11-14 Eeshan Modak , Mayank Bakshi , Bikash Kumar Dey , Vinod M. Prabhakaran

Binary classification is a fundamental task in machine learning, with applications spanning various scientific domains. Whether scientists are conducting fundamental research or refining practical applications, they typically assess and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-20 Attila Fazekas , György Kovács

Iterative imputation, in which variables are imputed one at a time each given a model predicting from all the others, is a popular technique that can be convenient and flexible, as it replaces a potentially difficult multivariate modeling…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-04-04 Jingchen Liu , Andrew Gelman , Jennifer Hill , Yu-Sung Su

This paper provides a statistical method to test whether a system that performs a binary sequential hypothesis test is optimal in the sense of minimizing the average decision times while taking decisions with given reliabilities. The…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2018-01-08 Meik Dörpinghaus , Izaak Neri , Édgar Roldán , Heinrich Meyr , Frank Jülicher

In many scenarios, the observational data needed for causal inferences are spread over two data files. In particular, we consider scenarios where one file includes covariates and the treatment measured on one set of individuals, and a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-22 Sharmistha Guha , Jerome P. Reiter , Andrea Mercatanti

Diagnostic tests play a crucial role in medical care. Thus any new diagnostic tests must undergo a thorough evaluation. New diagnostic tests are evaluated in comparison with the respective gold standard tests. The performance of binary…

Applications · Statistics 2025-09-17 Wan Nor Arifin , Umi Kalsom Yusof

Can instrumental variables be found from data? While instrumental variable (IV) methods are widely used to identify causal effect, testing their validity from observed data remains a challenge. This is because validity of an IV depends on…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-05 Amit Sharma

We formulate nonparametric and semiparametric hypothesis testing of multivariate stationary linear time series in a unified fashion and propose new test statistics based on estimators of the spectral density matrix. The limiting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-03 Yoshihiro Yajima , Yasumasa Matsuda

Causal inference is a critical research area with multi-disciplinary origins and applications, ranging from statistics, computer science, economics, psychology to public health. In many scientific research, randomized experiments provide a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-26 Jingying Zeng

We develop new methods to integrate experimental and observational data in causal inference. While randomized controlled trials offer strong internal validity, they are often costly and therefore limited in sample size. Observational data,…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-04 Xuelin Yang , Licong Lin , Susan Athey , Michael I. Jordan , Guido W. Imbens

The use of a hypothetical generative model was been suggested for causal analysis of observational data. The very assumption of a particular model is a commitment to a certain set of variables and therefore to a certain set of possible…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-06-09 Nimrod Megiddo