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Recently, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has worked with other federal agencies to identify counties with increasing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence (hotspots) and offers support to local health…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-05-04 Shixiang Zhu , Alexander Bukharin , Liyan Xie , Khurram Yamin , Shihao Yang , Pinar Keskinocak , Yao Xie

Stochastic infectious disease models capture uncertainty in public health outcomes and have become increasingly popular in epidemiological practice. However, calibrating these models to observed data is challenging with existing methods for…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-18 Prayag Chatha , Fan Bu , Jeffrey Regier , Evan Snitkin , Jon Zelner

Traditional epidemic detection algorithms make decisions using only local information. We propose a novel approach that explicitly models spatial information fusion from several metapopulations. Our method also takes into account…

Computation · Statistics 2015-09-15 Michael Ludkovski , Katherine Shatskikh

Timely and robust influenza incidence forecasting is critical for public health decision-making. This paper presents MAESTRO (Multi-modal Adaptive Estimation for Temporal Respiratory Disease Outbreak), a novel, unified framework that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-22 Hong Liu , Kerui Cen , Yanxing Chen , Zige Liu , Dong Chen , Zifeng Yang , Chitin Hon

Spatiotemporal forecasting is critical for real-world applications like traffic management, yet capturing reliable interactions remains challenging under noisy and non-stationary conditions. Existing methods primarily rely on historical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Yinghao Ai , Yukai Zhou , Ruoxi Jiang , Junyi An , Chao Qu , Zhijian Zhou , Shiyu Wang , Fenglei Cao , Zenglin Xu , Furao Shen , Yuan Qi

Traffic time series forecasting is challenging due to complex spatio-temporal dynamics time series from different locations often have distinct patterns; and for the same time series, patterns may vary across time, where, for example, there…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-06 Razvan-Gabriel Cirstea , Bin Yang , Chenjuan Guo , Tung Kieu , Shirui Pan

Forecasting epileptic seizures from multivariate EEG signals represents a critical challenge in healthcare time series prediction, requiring high sensitivity, low false alarm rates, and subject-specific adaptability. We present STAN, an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-04 Zan Li , Kyongmin Yeo , Wesley Gifford , Lara Marcuse , Madeline Fields , Bülent Yener

The COVID-19 pandemic's severe impact highlighted the need for accurate and timely hospitalization forecasting to support effective healthcare planning. However, most forecasting models struggled, particularly during variant surges, when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-17 Zhongying Wang , Thoai D. Ngo , Hamidreza Zoraghein , Benjamin Lucas , Morteza Karimzadeh

Accuracy and timeliness are indeed often conflicting goals in prediction tasks. Premature predictions may yield a higher rate of false alarms, whereas delaying predictions to gather more information can render them too late to be useful. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-19 Wei Shao , Yufan Kang , Ziyan Peng , Xiao Xiao , Lei Wang , Yuhui Yang , Flora D Salim

Spatial epidemiology identifies the drivers of elevated population-level disease risks, using disease counts, exposures and known confounders at the areal unit level. Poisson regression models are typically used for inference, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Duncan Lee , Vinny Davies

Early prediction of patients at risk of clinical deterioration can help physicians intervene and alter their clinical course towards better outcomes. In addition to the accuracy requirement, early warning systems must make the predictions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-16 Ibrahim Hammoud , Prateek Prasanna , IV Ramakrishnan , Adam Singer , Mark Henry , Henry Thode

A novel predictive modeling framework for the spread of infectious diseases using high dimensional partial differential equations is developed and implemented. A scalar function representing the infected population is defined on a…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-07-06 Sashikumaar Ganesan , Deepak Subramani

Spatio-temporal forecasting is an open research field whose interest is growing exponentially. In this work we focus on creating a complex deep neural framework for spatio-temporal traffic forecasting with comparatively very good…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-22 Rodrigo de Medrano , José L. Aznarte

Flu circulates all over the world. The worldwide infection places a substantial burden on people's health every year. Regardless of the characteristic of the worldwide circulation of flu, most previous studies focused on regional prediction…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2021-02-17 Jie Zhang , Kazumitsu Nawata , Hongyan Wu

Spatio-temporal prediction is a crucial research area in data-driven urban computing, with implications for transportation, public safety, and environmental monitoring. However, scalability and generalization challenges remain significant…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-12 Jiabin Tang , Wei Wei , Lianghao Xia , Chao Huang

Stochastic epidemic models which incorporate interactions between space and human mobility are a key tool to inform prioritisation of outbreak control to appropriate locations. However, methods for fitting such models to national-level…

Accurate and reliable forecasting of epidemic incidences is critical for public health preparedness, yet it remains a challenging task due to complex nonlinear temporal dependencies and heterogeneous spatial interactions. Often, point…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-10 Rajdeep Pathak , Tanujit Chakraborty

The COVID-19 pandemic provided many modeling challenges to investigate the evolution of an epidemic process over areal units. A suitable encompassing model must describe the spatio-temporal variations of the disease infection rate of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-20 Pierfrancesco Alaimo Di Loro , Dankmar Boehning , Sujit Sahu

Accurate spatiotemporal pattern analysis is critical in fields such as urban traffic, meteorology, and public health monitoring. However, existing methods face performance bottlenecks, typically yielding only incremental gains and often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Jing Chen , Shixiang Pan , Yujie Fan , Haocheng Ye , Haitao Xu , Wenqiang Xu

We study the problem of traffic forecasting, aiming to predict the inflow and outflow of a region in the subsequent time slot. The problem is complex due to the intricate spatial and temporal interdependence among regions. Prior works study…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-11-12 Zheng Chenghong , Zongyin Deng , Liu Cheng , Xiong Simin , Di Deshi , Li Guanyao