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The paper presents a Bayesian framework for the calibration of financial models using neural stochastic differential equations (neural SDEs), for which we also formulate a global universal approximation theorem based on Barron-type…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-12 Christa Cuchiero , Eva Flonner , Kevin Kurt

While Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) hold the promise of being flexible, well-calibrated statistical models, inference often requires approximations whose consequences are poorly understood. We study the quality of common variational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-26 Andrew Y. K. Foong , David R. Burt , Yingzhen Li , Richard E. Turner

Classical parameter-space Bayesian inference for Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) suffers from several unresolved prior issues, such as knowledge encoding intractability and pathological behaviours in deep networks, which can lead to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-11 Mengjing Wu , Junyu Xuan , Jie Lu

We propose SWA-Gaussian (SWAG), a simple, scalable, and general purpose approach for uncertainty representation and calibration in deep learning. Stochastic Weight Averaging (SWA), which computes the first moment of stochastic gradient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-01 Wesley Maddox , Timur Garipov , Pavel Izmailov , Dmitry Vetrov , Andrew Gordon Wilson

In modern applications such as ECG monitoring, neuroimaging, wearable sensing, and industrial equipment diagnostics, complex and continuously structured data are ubiquitous, presenting both challenges and opportunities for functional data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Xiaoxian Zhu , Yingmeng Li , Shuangge Ma , Mengyun Wu

Variational Learning (VL) has recently gained popularity for training deep neural networks. Part of its empirical success can be explained by theories such as PAC-Bayes bounds, minimum description length and marginal likelihood, but little…

State estimation in heavy-tailed process and measurement noise is an important challenge that must be addressed in, e.g., tracking scenarios with agile targets and outlier-corrupted measurements. The performance of the Kalman filter (KF)…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-08 Michael Roth , Tohid Ardeshiri , Emre Özkan , Fredrik Gustafsson

The discovery of Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) is an essential task for applied science and engineering. However, data-driven discovery of PDEs is generally challenging, primarily stemming from the sensitivity of the discovered…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-27 Aoxue Chen , Yifan Du , Liyao Mars Gao , Guang Lin

We present a novel numerical method for solving McKean-Vlasov forward-backward stochastic differential equations (MV-FBSDEs) with common noise, combining Picard iterations, elicitability and deep learning. The key innovation involves…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-18 Felipe J. P. Antunes , Yuri F. Saporito , Sebastian Jaimungal

The recent literature on deep learning offers new tools to learn a rich probability distribution over high dimensional data such as images or sounds. In this work we investigate the possibility of learning the prior distribution over neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-12-19 Alexandre Lacoste , Thomas Boquet , Negar Rostamzadeh , Boris Oreshkin , Wonchang Chung , David Krueger

We establish in-expectation and tail bounds on the generalization error of representation learning type algorithms. The bounds are in terms of the relative entropy between the distribution of the representations extracted from the training…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-21 Milad Sefidgaran , Abdellatif Zaidi , Piotr Krasnowski

In this work, the uncertainty associated with the finite element discretization error is modeled following the Bayesian paradigm. First, a continuous formulation is derived, where a Gaussian process prior over the solution space is updated…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-03-11 Anne Poot , Pierre Kerfriden , Iuri Rocha , Frans van der Meer

We conduct non-asymptotic analysis on the mean-field variational inference for approximating posterior distributions in complex Bayesian models that may involve latent variables. We show that the mean-field approximation to the posterior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-06 Wei Han , Yun Yang

We formulate natural gradient variational inference (VI), expectation propagation (EP), and posterior linearisation (PL) as extensions of Newton's method for optimising the parameters of a Bayesian posterior distribution. This viewpoint…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-07 William J. Wilkinson , Simo Särkkä , Arno Solin

The main challenge in Bayesian models is to determine the posterior for the model parameters. Already, in models with only one or few parameters, the analytical posterior can only be determined in special settings. In Bayesian neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-02 Sefan Hörtling , Daniel Dold , Oliver Dürr , Beate Sick

This study addresses the problem of discrete signal reconstruction from the perspective of sparse Bayesian learning (SBL). Generally, it is intractable to perform the Bayesian inference with the ideal discretization prior under the SBL…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-04-19 Jisheng Dai , An Liu , Hing Cheung So

Recently, several Bayesian deep learning methods have been proposed for semi-supervised medical image segmentation. Although they have achieved promising results on medical benchmarks, some problems are still existing. Firstly, their…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Jianfeng Wang , Thomas Lukasiewicz

Bayesian deep learning counts on the quality of posterior distribution estimation. However, the posterior of deep neural networks is highly multi-modal in nature, with local modes exhibiting varying generalization performance. Given a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-27 Bolian Li , Ruqi Zhang

A learning-based posterior distribution estimation method, Probabilistic Dipole Inversion (PDI), is proposed to solve quantitative susceptibility mapping (QSM) inverse problem in MRI with uncertainty estimation. A deep convolutional neural…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-04-28 Jinwei Zhang , Hang Zhang , Mert Sabuncu , Pascal Spincemaille , Thanh Nguyen , Yi Wang

The goal of Bayesian deep learning is to provide uncertainty quantification via the posterior distribution. However, exact inference over the weight space is computationally intractable due to the ultra-high dimensions of the neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-25 Xiongwen Ke , Yanan Fan