Related papers: Modeling plant disease spread via high-resolution …
The rapid worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model which…
This study presents an integrated approach to understanding epidemic dynamics through a stochastic spatio-temporal simulation model on a multiplex network, blending physical and informational layers. The physical layer maps the geographic…
Motivated by the increasing number of COVID-19 cases that have been observed in many countries after the vaccination and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, we propose a mathematical model on time-varying networks for the spread…
Epidemic outbreaks are an important healthcare challenge, especially in developing countries where they represent one of the major causes of mortality. Approaches that can rapidly target subpopulations for surveillance and control are…
Despite their importance for the spread of zoonotic diseases, our understanding of the dynamical aspects characterizing the movements of farmed animal populations remains limited as these systems are traditionally studied as static objects…
The individual-based models constitute a set of widely implemented tools to analyze the incidence of individuals heterogeneities in the spread of an infectious disease. In this work we focus our attention on human contacts heterogeneities…
Despite the enormous relevance of zoonotic infections to world- wide public health, and despite much effort in modeling individual zoonoses, a fundamental understanding of the disease dynamics and the nature of outbreaks arising in such…
Disease propagation between countries strongly depends on their effective distance, a measure derived from the world air transportation network (WAN). It reduces the complex spreading patterns of a pandemic to a wave-like propagation from…
I study the spreading of infectious diseases on heterogeneous populations. I represent the population structure by a contact-graph where vertices represent agents and edges represent disease transmission channels among them. The population…
We report on a data-driven investigation aimed at understanding the dynamics of message spreading in a real-world dynamical network of human proximity. We use data collected by means of a proximity-sensing network of wearable sensors that…
In this work we study the influence of populations mobility on the spread of a vector-borne disease. We focus on the chikungunya epidemic event that occurred in 2005-2006 on the R\'eunion Island, Indian Ocean, France, and validate our…
Daily variation in human mobility modulates the speed and severity of emerging outbreaks, yet most epidemiological studies assume static contact patterns. With a highly mobile population exceeding 24 million people, Shanghai, China is a…
In wireless sensor networks (WSNs), main task of each sensor node is to sense the physical activity (i.e., targets or disaster conditions) and then to report it to the control center for further process. For this, sensor nodes are attached…
Spatio-temporal extensions of familiar compartment models for disease transmission incorporating diffusive behavior, or interactions between individuals at separate locations, are explored. The models considered have the character of…
Background: Animal trade plays an important role for the spread of infectious diseases in livestock populations. As a case study, we consider pig trade in Germany, where trade actors (agricultural premises) form a complex network. The…
Diffusion processes are governed by external triggers and internal dynamics in complex systems. Timely and cost-effective control of infectious disease spread critically relies on uncovering the underlying diffusion mechanisms, which is…
Disease outbreaks, such as those of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in 2003 and the 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) influenza, have highlighted the potential for airborne transmission in indoor environments. Respirable pathogen-carrying droplets…
The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for mathematical models that can project epidemic trends and evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies. To forecast the transmission of COVID-19, a major challenge is the accurate…
The analysis of contagion-diffusion processes in metapopulations is a powerful theoretical tool to study how mobility influences the spread of communicable diseases. Nevertheless, many metapopulation approaches use indistinguishable agents…
This work aims to assess the risks of Covid-19 disease spread in diverse daily-life situations (referred to as scenarios) involving crowds of maskless pedestrians, mostly outdoors. More concretely, we develop a method to infer the global…