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We introduce a new test for detection of power-law cross-correlations among a pair of time series - the rescaled covariance test. The test is based on a power-law divergence of the covariance of the partial sums of the long-range…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-10-10 Ladislav Kristoufek

Marginal structural models have been increasingly used by analysts in recent years to account for confounding bias in studies with time-varying treatments. The parameters of these models are often estimated using inverse probability of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-14 David Adenyo , Jason R. Guertin , Bernard Candas , Caroline Sirois , Denis Talbot

Our goal is to recover time-delayed latent causal variables and identify their relations from measured temporal data. Estimating causally-related latent variables from observations is particularly challenging as the latent variables are not…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-10 Weiran Yao , Yuewen Sun , Alex Ho , Changyin Sun , Kun Zhang

The identification of factors associated with mental and behavioral disorders in early childhood is critical both for psychopathology research and the support of primary health care practices. Motivated by the Millennium Cohort Study, in…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-15 Luca Merlo , Lea Petrella , Nikos Tzavidis

Time Varying Functional Connectivity (TVFC) investigates how the interactions among brain regions vary over the course of an fMRI experiment. The transitions between different individual connectivity states can be modulated by changes in…

Deep learning methods achieve remarkable predictive performance in modeling complex, large-scale data. However, assessing the quality of derived models has become increasingly challenging, as more classical statistical assumptions may no…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-02 Daniele Zambon , Cesare Alippi

Understanding covariate-varying interdependencies among features is of great interest in various applications. Motivated by microbiome studies where microbial abundances and interactions vary with environmental factors, we develop a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-16 Shuangjie Zhang , Michael L. Patnode , Juhee Lee

This paper studies the task of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in causal panel data models, in the presence of covariate effects. We propose a novel Covariate-Adjusted Deep Causal Learning (CoDEAL) for panel data models, that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-28 Guanhao Zhou , Yuefeng Han , Xiufan Yu

A proper description of ocean-atmosphere interactions is key for a correct understanding of climate evolution. The interplay among the different variables acting over the climate is complex, often leading to correlations across long spatial…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-10-11 Niclas Rieger , Álvaro Corral , Estrella Olmedo , Antonio Turiel

Estimating treatment effects from observational data is challenging due to two main reasons: (a) hidden confounding, and (b) covariate mismatch (control and treatment groups not having identical distributions). Long lines of works exist…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-30 Praharsh Nanavati , Ranjitha Prasad , Karthikeyan Shanmugam

This work bridges the gap between staggered adoption designs and survival analysis to estimate causal effects in settings with time-varying treatments, addressing a fundamental challenge in medical research exemplified by the Stanford Heart…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-04 Xiang Meng , Iavor Bojinov

Every design choice will have different effects on different units. However traditional A/B tests are often underpowered to identify these heterogeneous effects. This is especially true when the set of unit-level attributes is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-11-09 Alexander Peysakhovich , Akos Lada

We propose a general framework for non-normal multivariate data analysis called multivariate covariance generalized linear models (McGLMs), designed to handle multivariate response variables, along with a wide range of temporal and spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-25 Wagner Hugo Bonat , Bent Jørgensen

The integration of mobile health (mHealth) devices into behavioral health research has fundamentally changed the way researchers and interventionalists are able to collect data as well as deploy and evaluate intervention strategies. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-17 Matthew D. Koslovsky , Emily T. Hebert , Michael S. Businelle , Marina Vannucci

Accurately modeling the correlation structure of errors is critical for reliable uncertainty quantification in probabilistic time series forecasting. While recent deep learning models for multivariate time series have developed efficient…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-11 Vincent Zhihao Zheng , Lijun Sun

The tree-structured varying coefficient model (TSVC) is a flexible regression approach that allows the effects of covariates to vary with the values of the effect modifiers. Relevant effect modifiers are identified inherently using…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-01 Nikolai Spuck , Matthias Schmid , Malte Monin , Moritz Berger

Medication adherence is essential to ensure treatment effectiveness, but too often in routine care non-adherence compromises the desired outcome. We explore longitudinal causal modelling using observational data to estimate the time-varying…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Xiaoran Liang , Deniz Türkmen , Jane A H Masoli , Luke C Pilling , Jack Bowden

Difference-in-differences (DiD) identification relies mainly on a parallel trends assumption about untreated potential outcomes. Researchers often relax this assumption by assuming conditional parallel trends within units with the same…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-05 Daniela Rodrigues , Laura A. Hatfield

In a tie-breaker design (TBD), subjects with high values of a running variable are given some (usually desirable) treatment, subjects with low values are not, and subjects in the middle are randomized. TBDs are intermediate between…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-12 Tim P. Morrison , Art B. Owen

Epidemiologic studies often evaluate the association between an exposure and an event risk. When time-varying, exposure updates usually occur at discrete visits although changes are in continuous time and survival models require values to…