Related papers: Age Structured Epidemic Model under Vaccination wi…
Arboviral infections, especially dengue, continue to cause significant health burden in their endemic regions. One of the strategies to tackle these infections is to replace the main vector agent, Ae. aegypti, with the ones incapable of…
Infectious diseases often spread faster near their peak than would be predicted given early data on transmission. Despite the commonality of this phenomena, there are no known general mechanisms able to cause an exponentially spreading dis-…
Mathematical and computational modeling approaches are increasingly used as quantitative tools in the analysis and forecasting of infectious disease epidemics. The growing need for realism in addressing complex public health questions is…
Heterogeneity of population is a key factor in modeling the transmission of disease among the population and has huge impact on the outcome of the transmission. In order to investigate the decision making process in the heterogeneous mixing…
In this paper we present a model to estimate the density of aedes mosquitoes in a community affected by dengue. The model is based on the fitting of a continuous function to the incidence of dengue infections, from which the density of…
Public health services are constantly searching for new ways to reduce the spread of infectious diseases, such as public vaccination of asymptomatic individuals, quarantine (isolation) and treatment of symptomatic individuals. Epidemic…
This paper describes an agent-based model of epidemics dynamics. This model is willingly simplified, as its goal is not to predict the evolution of the epidemics, but to explain the underlying mechanisms in an interactive way. This model…
We study an S--I type epidemic model in an age-structured population, with mortality due to the disease. A threshold quantity is found that controls the stability of the disease-free equilibrium and guarantees the existence of an endemic…
The incidence of Dengue epidemiologic disease has grown in recent decades. In this paper an application of optimal control in Dengue epidemics is presented. The mathematical model includes the dynamic of Dengue mosquito, the affected…
Vector-borne diseases often infect multiple host species, increasing the likelihood of disease persistence due to the presence of multiple reservoirs. Vector biting patterns and feeding preferences can shift in response to selective…
We develop and analyze an ordinary differential equation model to assess the potential effectiveness of infecting mosquitoes with the Wolbachia bacteria to control the ongoing mosquito-borne epidemics, such as dengue fever, chikungunya, and…
This paper is a survey paper on stochastic epidemic models. A simple stochastic epidemic model is defined and exact and asymptotic model properties (relying on a large community) are presented. The purpose of modelling is illustrated by…
Confirmed cases during the early stage of the 2009 H1N1 pdm in various countries showed an age shift between importations and local transmission cases, with adults mainly responsible for seeding unaffected regions and children most…
Since the last century, deterministic compartmental models have emerged as powerful tools to predict and control epidemic outbreaks, in many cases helping to mitigate their impacts. A key quantity for these models is the so-called Basic…
If we can lower the number of people needed to vaccinate for a community to be immune against contagious diseases, we can save resources and life. A key to reach such a lower threshold of immunization is to find and vaccinate people who,…
Ross-Macdonald models are the building blocks of most vector-borne disease models. Even for the same disease, different authors use different model formulations, but a study of the dynamical consequences of assuming different hypotheses is…
When the body gets infected by a pathogen or receives a vaccine dose, the immune system develops pathogen-specific immunity. Induced immunity decays in time and years after recovery/vaccination the host might become susceptible again.…
The assumption that vector mortality remains constant with age is used widely to assess malaria transmission risk and predict the public health consequences of vector control strategies. However, laboratory studies commonly demonstrate…
Understanding how age-specific social contact patterns and susceptibility influence infectious disease transmission is crucial for accurate epidemic modeling. This study presents an eigenvector-based sensitivity analysis framework to…
Network--based epidemic models that account for heterogeneous contact patterns are extensively used to predict and control the diffusion of infectious diseases. We use census and survey data to reconstruct a geo--referenced and…