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Spatial-Temporal Graph (STG) forecasting on large-scale networks has garnered significant attention. However, existing models predominantly focus on short-horizon predictions and suffer from notorious computational costs and memory…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-09 Yiji Zhao , Zihao Zhong , Ao Wang , Haomin Wen , Ming Jin , Yuxuan Liang , Huaiyu Wan , Hao Wu

Surrogate models provide compact relations between user-defined input parameters and output quantities of interest, enabling the efficient evaluation of complex parametric systems in many-query settings. Such capabilities are essential in a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-03-16 Matteo Giacomini , Pedro Díez

We address the challenge of constructing noise-robust surrogate models for quantities of interest (QoIs) arising from parametric partial differential equations (PDEs), using multi-fidelity collocation techniques; specifically, the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-02-17 Benjamin M. Kent , Lorenzo Tamellini , Matteo Giacomini , Antonio Huerta

Machine learning surrogates are increasingly used in engineering to accelerate costly simulations, yet distribution shifts between training and deployment often cause severe performance degradation (e.g., unseen geometries or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-18 Anna Zimmel , Paul Setinek , Gianluca Galletti , Johannes Brandstetter , Werner Zellinger

We propose a novel approach to allocating resources for expensive simulations of high fidelity models when used in a multifidelity framework. Allocation decisions that distribute computational resources across several simulation models…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-01-01 Daniel J. Perry , Robert M. Kirby , Akil Narayan , Ross T. Whitaker

In the present work, we consider multi-fidelity surrogate modelling to fuse the output of multiple aero-servo-elastic computer simulators of varying complexity. In many instances, predictions from multiple simulators for the same quantity…

Computation · Statistics 2017-09-25 I. Abdallah , C. Lataniotis , B. Sudret

Image-based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling enables derivation of hemodynamic information, which has become a paradigm in cardiovascular research and healthcare. Nonetheless, the predictive accuracy largely depends on precisely…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2021-07-20 Han Gao , Xueyu Zhu , Jian-Xun Wang

Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for probabilistic reasoning. If inference is performed in two steps, uncertainty propagation plays a crucial role in accounting for all sources of uncertainty and variability. This becomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-16 Svenja Jedhoff , Hadi Kutabi , Anne Meyer , Paul-Christian Bürkner

High-Performance Computing (HPC) schedulers must balance user performance with facility-wide resource constraints. The task boils down to selecting the optimal number of nodes for a given job. We present a surrogate-assisted multi-objective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-23 Ashna Nawar Ahmed , Banooqa Banday , Terry Jones , Tanzima Z. Islam

Efficient optimization remains a fundamental challenge across numerous scientific and engineering domains, especially when objective function and gradient evaluations are computationally expensive. While zeroth-order optimization methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Nuojin Cheng , Alireza Doostan , Stephen Becker

The complex and computationally expensive nature of landscape evolution models pose significant challenges in the inference and optimisation of unknown parameters. Bayesian inference provides a methodology for estimation and uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-30 Rohitash Chandra , Danial Azam , Arpit Kapoor , R. Dietmar Müller

Numerical models are widely used to simulate the earth system, but they are computationally expensive and often depend on many uncertain input parameters. Their effective use requires calibration and uncertainty quantification, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-06 Tristan Contant , Yawen Guan , Ander Wilson , Adrian K. Turner , Deborah Sulsky

We give the first mathematically rigorous analysis of an emerging approach to finite element analysis (see, e.g., Bauer et al. [Appl. Numer. Math., 2017]), which we hereby refer to as the surrogate matrix methodology. This methodology is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-08-11 Daniel Drzisga , Brendan Keith , Barbara Wohlmuth

Spatiotemporal data mining (STDM) has a wide range of applications in various complex physical systems (CPS), i.e., transportation, manufacturing, healthcare, etc. Among all the proposed methods, the Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-19 Junfeng Wu , Hadjer Benmeziane , Kaoutar El Maghraoui , Liu Liu , Yinan Wang

Explicit quantification of uncertainty in engineering simulations is being increasingly used to inform robust and reliable design practices. In the aerospace industry, computationally-feasible analyses for design optimization purposes often…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2019-11-13 Jayant Mukhopadhaya , Brian T. Whitehead , John F. Quindlen , Juan J. Alonso

The challenge of quantifying uncertainty propagation in real-world systems is rooted in the high-dimensionality of the stochastic input and the frequent lack of explicit knowledge of its probability distribution. Traditional approaches show…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-05-01 Huan Lei , Jing Li , Peiyuan Gao , Panos Stinis , Nathan Baker

Transmission expansion planning (TEP) plays a critical role in ensuring power system reliability and facilitating the integration of renewable energy resources. However, this process requires planners to constantly deal with significant…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-21 Victor Schmitt , Farzaneh Pourahmadi , Angela Flores-Quiroz , Pablo Apablaza , Pierluigi Mancarella

Multiscale modeling is a systematic approach to describe the behavior of complex systems by coupling models from different scales. The approach has been demonstrated to be very effective in areas of science as diverse as materials science,…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-01-08 Ting Wang , Kenneth W. Leiter , Petr Plechac , Jaroslaw Knap

Traffic prediction is a cornerstone of modern intelligent transportation systems and a critical task in spatio-temporal forecasting. Although advanced Spatio-temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNs) and pre-trained models have achieved…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-01 Weilin Ruan , Xilin Dang , Ziyu Zhou , Sisuo Lyu , Yuxuan Liang

Fatigue crack growth is one of the most common types of deterioration in metal structures with significant implications on their reliability. Recent advances in Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) have motivated the use of structural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-12 Nicholas E. Silionis , Konstantinos N. Anyfantis