Related papers: Inspectorch: Efficient rare event exploration in s…
Recent observations from Parker Solar Probe have revealed that the solar wind has a highly variable structure. How this complex behaviour is formed in the solar corona is not yet known, since it requires omnipresent fluctuations, which…
We present a Bayesian hierarchical framework for a principled data analysis pipeline of peculiar velocity surveys, which makes explicit the inference problem of constraining cosmological parameters from redshift-independent distance…
Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more. Despite the intrinsic differences between these…
Every field of Science is undergoing unprecedented changes in the discovery process, and Astronomy has been a main player in this transition since the beginning. The ongoing and future large and complex multi-messenger sky surveys impose a…
Regular variation provides a convenient theoretical framework to study large events. In the multivariate setting, the dependence structure of the positive extremes is characterized by a measure - the spectral measure - defined on the…
The plethora of space-borne and ground-based observatories has provided astrophysicists with an unprecedented volume of data, which can only be processed at scale using advanced computing algorithms. Consequently, ensuring the quality of…
We develop a method for the evaluation of extreme event statistics associated with nonlinear dynamical systems, using a small number of samples. From an initial dataset of design points, we formulate a sequential strategy that provides the…
Rare events arising in nonlinear atmospheric dynamics remain hard to predict and attribute. We address the problem of forecasting rare events in a prototypical example, Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs). Approximately once every other…
In the never-ending quest for tools that enable an ISP to smooth troubleshooting and improve awareness of network behavior, very much effort has been devoted in the collection of data by active and passive measurement at the data plane and…
Then detection and identification of extreme weather events in large-scale climate simulations is an important problem for risk management, informing governmental policy decisions and advancing our basic understanding of the climate system.…
Atmospheric blocking events are quasi-stationary high-pressure systems that disrupt the typical paths of polar and subtropical air currents, often producing prolonged extreme weather events such as summer heat waves or winter cold spells.…
Radial velocity surveys for extra-solar planets generally require substantial amounts of large telescope time in order to monitor a sufficient number of stars. Two of the aspects which can limit such surveys are the single-object…
Estimating density ratios between pairs of intractable data distributions is a core problem in probabilistic modeling, enabling principled comparisons of sample likelihoods under different data-generating processes across conditions and…
In this paper we develop a methodology that we call split sampling methods to estimate high dimensional expectations and rare event probabilities. Split sampling uses an auxiliary variable MCMC simulation and expresses the expectation of…
Stokes inversion techniques are very powerful methods for obtaining information on the thermodynamic and magnetic properties of solar and stellar atmospheres. In recent years, very sophisticated inversion codes have been developed that are…
Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) form a critical component of Space Weather. The complex, intertwined dynamics of SEP sources, acceleration, and transport make their forecasting very challenging. Yet, information about SEP arrival and their…
Accounting for the annual climatic variability is a well-known issue for simulation-based studies of environmental models. It often requires intensive sampling (e.g., averaging the simulation outputs over many climatic series), which…
The solar wind is a dynamic plasma outflow that shapes heliospheric conditions and drives space weather. Identifying its large-scale phenomena is crucial, yet the increasing volume of high-cadence Parker Solar Probe (PSP) observations poses…
Normalizing flows are a class of generative models that enable exact likelihood evaluation. While these models have already found various applications in particle physics, normalizing flows are not flexible enough to model many of the…
The task of simplifying the complex spatio-temporal variables associated with climate modeling is of utmost importance and comes with significant challenges. In this research, our primary objective is to tailor clustering techniques to…