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We consider the problem of robustly maximizing the growth rate of investor wealth in the presence of model uncertainty. Possible models are all those under which the assets' region $E$ and instantaneous covariation $c$ are known, and where…
This paper focuses on modeling the dynamic attributes of a dynamic network with a fixed number of vertices. These attributes are considered as time series which dependency structure is influenced by the underlying network. They are modeled…
We study the estimation of the value function for continuous-time Markov diffusion processes using a single, discretely observed ergodic trajectory. Our work provides non-asymptotic statistical guarantees for the least-squares…
We present a generic epidemic model with stochastic parameters, in which the dynamics self-organize to a critical state with suppressed exponential growth. More precisely, the dynamics evolve into a quasi-steady-state, where the effective…
Vector autoregression is an essential tool in empirical macroeconomics and finance for understanding the dynamic interdependencies among multivariate time series. In this study, we expand the scope of vector autoregression by incorporating…
This paper introduces a novel stochastic model for credit spreads. The stochastic approach leverages the diffusion of default intensities via a CIR++ model and is formulated within a risk-neutral probability space. Our research primarily…
The stochastic processes underlying the growth and stability of biological and psychological systems reveal themselves when far from equilibrium. Far from equilibrium, nonergodicity reigns. Nonergodicity implies that the average outcome for…
We consider a two-sided singular stochastic control problem with a risk-sensitive ergodic criterion. In particular, we consider a stochastic system whose uncontrolled dynamics are modelled by a linear diffusion. The control that can be…
We study the evolution of distributions under the action of an ergodic dynamical system, which may be stochastic in nature. By employing tools from Koopman and transfer operator theory one can evolve any initial distribution of the state…
Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erd\H{o}s Renyi network models where each node, representing bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use…
Standard macroeconomic frameworks have correctly identified Japan's government debt - now exceeding 240% of GDP - as carrying substantial fiscal risk. Yet FRED data from 2013 to 2026 present an empirical record inviting a complementary…
We consider the ergodicity and consensus problem for a discrete-time linear dynamic model driven by random stochastic matrices, which is equivalent to studying these concepts for the product of such matrices. Our focus is on the model where…
This paper introduces a novel stochastic framework for modelling tax evasion dynamics by extending the deterministic model of Bertotti and Modanese (2018) through the use of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs). A key limitation…
This paper proposes a simple technical approach for the analytical derivation of Point-in-Time PD (probability of default) forecasts, with minimal data requirements. The inputs required are the current and future Through-the-Cycle PDs of…
We consider a structural credit model for a large portfolio of credit risky assets where the correlation is due to a market factor. By considering the large portfolio limit of this system we show the existence of a density process for the…
This paper introduces a novel framework to study default dependence and systemic risk in a financial network that evolves over time. We analyse several indicators of risk, and develop a new latent space model to assess the health of key…
We consider a finite dimensional approximation of the stochastic nonlinear Schr\"odinger equation driven by multiplicative noise, which is derived by applying a symplectic method to the original equation in spatial direction. Both the…
Stochastic reduced-order models are widely used to represent the effective dynamics of complex systems, but estimating their drift and diffusion coefficients from data remains challenging. Standard approaches often rely on short-time…
Using elements from the theory of ergodic backward stochastic differential equations (BSDE), we study the behavior of forward entropic risk measures. We provide their general representation results (via both BSDE and convex duality) and…
We propose a dynamic model of dependence structure between financial institutions within a financial system and we construct measures for dependence and financial instability. Employing Markov structures of joint credit migrations, our…