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Related papers: Drift Localization using Conformal Predictions

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We consider the problem of function estimation in the case where the data distribution may shift between training and test time, and additional information about it may be available at test time. This relates to popular scenarios such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-06-05 Bernhard Schölkopf , Dominik Janzing , Jonas Peters , Kun Zhang

Concept drift is a phenomenon in which the distribution of a data stream changes over time in unforeseen ways, causing prediction models built on historical data to become inaccurate. While a variety of automated methods have been developed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-10 Weikai Yang , Zhen Li , Mengchen Liu , Yafeng Lu , Kelei Cao , Ross Maciejewski , Shixia Liu

Urban time series data forecasting featuring significant contributions to sustainable development is widely studied as an essential task of the smart city. However, with the dramatic and rapid changes in the world environment, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-27 Zekun Cai , Renhe Jiang , Xinyu Yang , Zhaonan Wang , Diansheng Guo , Hiroki Kobayashi , Xuan Song , Ryosuke Shibasaki

Conformal prediction is a learning framework controlling prediction coverage of prediction sets, which can be built on any learning algorithm for point prediction. This work proposes a learning framework named conformal loss-controlling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Di Wang , Ping Wang , Zhong Ji , Xiaojun Yang , Hongyue Li

The dynamicity of real-world systems poses a significant challenge to deployed predictive machine learning (ML) models. Changes in the system on which the ML model has been trained may lead to performance degradation during the system's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-22 Firas Bayram , Bestoun S. Ahmed , Andreas Kassler

Facing climate change, the already limited availability of drinking water will decrease in the future rendering drinking water an increasingly scarce resource. Considerable amounts of it are lost through leakages in water transportation and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-08 Valerie Vaquet , Fabian Hinder , Jonas Vaquet , Kathrin Lammers , Lars Quakernack , Barbara Hammer

Federated Learning (FL) under distributed concept drift is a largely unexplored area. Although concept drift is itself a well-studied phenomenon, it poses particular challenges for FL, because drifts arise staggered in time and space…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-01 Ellango Jothimurugesan , Kevin Hsieh , Jianyu Wang , Gauri Joshi , Phillip B. Gibbons

We develop and analyze a general technique for learning with an unknown distribution drift. Given a sequence of independent observations from the last $T$ steps of a drifting distribution, our algorithm agnostically learns a family of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Alessio Mazzetto , Eli Upfal

Conformal prediction has emerged as a rigorous means of providing deep learning models with reliable uncertainty estimates and safety guarantees. Yet, its performance is known to degrade under distribution shift and long-tailed class…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-06 Kevin Kasa , Graham W. Taylor

Continuous machine learning pipelines are common in industrial settings where models are periodically trained on data streams. Unfortunately, concept drifts may occur in data streams where the joint distribution of the data X and label y,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-18 Minsu Kim , Seong-Hyeon Hwang , Steven Euijong Whang

Existing drift detection methods focus on designing sensitive test statistics. They treat the detection threshold as a fixed hyperparameter, set once to balance false alarms and late detections, and applied uniformly across all datasets and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-14 Pengqian Lu , Jie Lu , Anjin Liu , En Yu , Guangquan Zhang

We develop methods for forming prediction sets in an online setting where the data generating distribution is allowed to vary over time in an unknown fashion. Our framework builds on ideas from conformal inference to provide a general…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-10 Isaac Gibbs , Emmanuel Candès

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification method that has gained popularity in the machine learning community due to its finite-sample guarantees and ease of use. Its most common variant, dubbed split conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Alvaro H. C. Correia , Christos Louizos

Distribution shifts are problems where the distribution of data changes between training and testing, which can significantly degrade the performance of a model deployed in the real world. Recent studies suggest that one reason for the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-10 Takuro Kutsuna

Data drift is the change in model input data that is one of the key factors leading to machine learning models performance degradation over time. Monitoring drift helps detecting these issues and preventing their harmful consequences.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-05-30 Ella Rabinovich , Matan Vetzler , Samuel Ackerman , Ateret Anaby-Tavor

The ability to detect and adapt to changes in data distributions is crucial to maintain the accuracy and reliability of machine learning models. Detection is generally approached by observing the drift of model performance from a global…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Flavio Giobergia , Eliana Pastor , Luca de Alfaro , Elena Baralis

Leakages are a major risk in water distribution networks as they cause water loss and increase contamination risks. Leakage detection is a difficult task due to the complex dynamics of water distribution networks. In particular, small…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-04 Valerie Vaquet , Fabian Hinder , Barbara Hammer

Non-stationarity of an underlying data generating process that leads to distributional changes over time is a key characteristic of Data Streams. This phenomenon, commonly referred to as Concept Drift, has been intensively studied, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-09 Brandon Gower-Winter , Misja Groen , Georg Krempl

Concept drift detection has attracted considerable attention due to its importance in many real-world applications such as health monitoring and fault diagnosis. Conventionally, most advanced approaches will be of poor performance when the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-31 Songqiao Hu , Zeyi Liu , Xiao He

Adapting to concept drift is a challenging task in machine learning, which is usually tackled using incremental learning techniques that periodically re-fit a learning model leveraging newly available data. A primary limitation of these…