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Large language models have achieved impressive performance across diverse tasks. However, their tendency to produce overconfident and factually incorrect outputs, known as hallucinations, poses risks in real world applications. Conformal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-08 Zhexiao Lin , Yuanyuan Li , Neeraj Sarna , Yuanyuan Gao , Michael von Gablenz

Conformal prediction is a useful and versatile alternative to model calibration in machine learning classification. It replaces single-class prediction with prediction sets, guaranteeing that the \textit{a priori} probability of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Sol Erika Boman

Conformal prediction (CP) transforms any model's output into prediction sets guaranteed to include (cover) the true label. CP requires exchangeability, a relaxation of the i.i.d. assumption, to obtain a valid distribution-free coverage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-15 Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Aleksandar Bojchevski

The accurate representation of epistemic uncertainty is a challenging yet essential task in machine learning. A widely used representation corresponds to convex sets of probabilistic predictors, also known as credal sets. One popular way of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Mira Jürgens , Thomas Mortier , Eyke Hüllermeier , Viktor Bengs , Willem Waegeman

Ensembling multiple predictions is a widely used technique for improving the accuracy of various machine learning tasks. One obvious drawback of ensembling is its higher execution cost during inference. In this paper, we first describe our…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-11 Hiroshi Inoue

Classification with Costly Features (CwCF) is a classification problem that includes the cost of features in the optimization criteria. Individually for each sample, its features are sequentially acquired to maximize accuracy while…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-17 Jaromír Janisch , Tomáš Pevný , Viliam Lisý

Conformal prediction (CP) was developed to provide finite-sample probabilistic prediction guarantees. While CP algorithms are a relatively general-purpose approach to uncertainty quantification, with finite-sample guarantees, they lack…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-08 Jonathan P Williams

Prediction under uncertainty is a critical requirement for the deep neural network to succeed responsibly. This paper focuses on selective prediction, which allows DNNs to make informed decisions about when to predict or abstain based on…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Ishan Mishra , Jiajie Li , Deepak Mishra , Jinjun Xiong

Conformal prediction is a statistically rigorous method for quantifying uncertainty in models by having them output sets of predictions, with larger sets indicating more uncertainty. However, prediction sets are not inherently actionable;…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-17 Jesse C. Cresswell , Bhargava Kumar , Yi Sui , Mouloud Belbahri

Conformal Predictors (CP) are wrappers around ML models, providing error guarantees under weak assumptions on the data distribution. They are suitable for a wide range of problems, from classification and regression to anomaly detection.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-06 Giovanni Cherubin , Konstantinos Chatzikokolakis , Martin Jaggi

We propose Bayesian Conformal Prediction (BCP), a framework that combines Bayesian posterior predictive distributions with PAC-style conformal risk control to produce prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Fanyi Wu , Veronika Lohmanova , Samuel Kaski , Michele Caprio

Model mismatch often poses challenges in model-based controller design. This paper investigates model predictive control (MPC) of uncertain linear systems with input constraints, focusing on stability and closed-loop infinite-horizon…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-03-06 Changrui Liu , Shengling Shi , Bart De Schutter

Sampling-based Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a flexible control framework that can reason about non-smooth dynamics and cost functions. Recently, significant work has focused on the use of machine learning to improve the performance of…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-12-07 Jacob Sacks , Byron Boots

We provide a method to design adaptive controllers for nonlinear systems using model predictive control (MPC). By combining a certainty-equivalent MPC formulation with least-mean-square parameter adaptation, we obtain an adaptive controller…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-19 Johannes Köhler

With the advancement of Internet of Things (IoT) technologies, high-precision indoor positioning has become essential for Location-Based Services (LBS) in complex indoor environments. Fingerprint-based localization is popular, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-06 Zhiyi Zhou , Hexin Peng , Hongyu Long

In the past decades, most work in the area of data analysis and machine learning was focused on optimizing predictive models and getting better results than what was possible with existing models. To what extent the metrics with which such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-06 Nicolas Dewolf

Split conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with finite-sample marginal coverage, but produces constant-width intervals that overcover in low-variance regions and undercover in high-variance regions. Existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-16 Shreyas Fadnavis

Conformal prediction (CP) is a powerful framework for uncertainty quantification, generating prediction sets with coverage guarantees. Split conformal prediction relies on labeled data in the calibration procedure. However, the labeled data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-11 Xuanning Zhou , Zihao Shi , Hao Zeng , Xiaobo Xia , Bingyi Jing , Hongxin Wei

This note considers softmax parameter estimation when little/no labeled training data is available, but a priori information about the relative geometry of class label log-odds boundaries is available. It is shown that `data-free' softmax…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-29 Nisar Ahmed

Conformal prediction (CP) has become a cornerstone of distribution-free uncertainty quantification, conventionally evaluated by its coverage and interval length. This work critically examines the sufficiency of these standard metrics. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-30 Yizhou Min , Yizhou Lu , Lanqi Li , Zhen Zhang , Jiaye Teng