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Deep neural networks have achieved remarkable success across a variety of tasks, yet they often suffer from unreliable probability estimates. As a result, they can be overconfident in their predictions. Conformal Prediction (CP) offers a…

Conformal prediction (CP) provides finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, but standard conformal regression intervals can be inefficient under heteroscedasticity and skewness. In particular, popular constructions such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-03 Xiaoyi Su , Zhixin Zhou , Rui Luo

Conformal prediction is a powerful tool to generate uncertainty sets with guaranteed coverage using any predictive model, under the assumption that the training and test data are i.i.d.. Recently, it has been shown that adversarial examples…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-01 Ge Yan , Yaniv Romano , Tsui-Wei Weng

Large language models are increasingly deployed in settings where reliability matters, yet output-level uncertainty signals such as token probabilities, entropy, and self-consistency can become brittle under calibration--deployment…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-20 Yanli Wang , Peng Kuang , Xiaoyu Han , Kaidi Xu , Haohan Wang

Conformal prediction (CP) is a promising uncertainty quantification framework which works as a wrapper around a black-box classifier to construct prediction sets (i.e., subset of candidate classes) with provable guarantees. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Yuanjie Shi , Hooman Shahrokhi , Xuesong Jia , Xiongzhi Chen , Janardhan Rao Doppa , Yan Yan

Learning with noisy labels can significantly hinder the generalization performance of deep neural networks (DNNs). Existing approaches address this issue through loss correction or example selection methods. However, these methods often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Chen-Chen Zong , Ye-Wen Wang , Ming-Kun Xie , Sheng-Jun Huang

A key property of reasoning systems is the ability to make sharp decisions on their input data. For contemporary AI systems, a key carrier of sharp behaviour is the softmax function, with its capability to perform differentiable query-key…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Petar Veličković , Christos Perivolaropoulos , Federico Barbero , Razvan Pascanu

Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound. For forecasting problems in supervised learning, most CP methods focus on building…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-24 Chen Xu , Hanyang Jiang , Yao Xie

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular uncertainty quantification method that provides distribution-free, statistically valid prediction sets, assuming that training and test data are exchangeable. In such a case, CP's prediction sets are…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Linus Jeary , Tom Kuipers , Mehran Hosseini , Nicola Paoletti

Conformal prediction (CP) is a method for constructing a prediction interval around the output of a fitted model, whose validity does not rely on the model being correct--the CP interval offers a coverage guarantee that is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-17 Aabesh Bhattacharyya , Rina Foygel Barber

Conformal prediction, a post-hoc, distribution-free, finite-sample method of uncertainty quantification that offers formal coverage guarantees under the assumption of data exchangeability. Unfortunately, the resulting uncertainty regions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Nikolaos Bousias , Lars Lindemann , George Pappas

Uncertainty estimation is critical for cost-sensitive deep-learning applications (i.e. disease diagnosis). It is very challenging partly due to the inaccessibility of uncertainty groundtruth in most datasets. Previous works proposed to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-18 Bolian Li , Zige Zheng , Changqing Zhang

Conformal prediction is a framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets for previously unseen data, guaranteeing coverage of the true label with a specified probability. However, the efficiency of these prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

Conformal Prediction (CP) has emerged as a powerful statistical framework for high-stakes classification applications. Instead of predicting a single class, CP generates a prediction set, guaranteed to include the true label with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Ariel Fargion , Lahav Dabah , Tom Tirer

In this paper, we present a novel approach for conformal prediction (CP), in which we aim to identify a set of promising prediction candidates -- in place of a single prediction. This set is guaranteed to contain a correct answer with high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-03 Adam Fisch , Tal Schuster , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

Conformal prediction (CP) is a popular frequentist framework for representing uncertainty by providing prediction sets that guarantee coverage of the true label with a user-adjustable probability. In most applications, CP operates on…

Hyperdimensional Computing (HDC) offers a computationally efficient paradigm for neuromorphic learning. Yet, it lacks rigorous uncertainty quantification, leading to open decision boundaries and, consequently, vulnerability to outliers,…

Conformal prediction is a statistical framework that generates prediction sets containing ground-truth labels with a desired coverage guarantee. The predicted probabilities produced by machine learning models are generally miscalibrated,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-07 Jianguo Huang , Huajun Xi , Linjun Zhang , Huaxiu Yao , Yue Qiu , Hongxin Wei

Time series forecasting is critical for many applications, where deep learning-based point prediction models have demonstrated strong performance. However, in practical scenarios, there is also a need to quantify predictive uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-14 Xiannan Huang , Shuhan Qiu

Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free uncertainty quantification for machine learning models, yet its interplay with fairness in downstream decision-making remains underexplored. Moving beyond CP as a standalone operation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-20 Pengqi Liu , Zijun Yu , Mouloud Belbahri , Arthur Charpentier , Masoud Asgharian , Jesse C. Cresswell