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Conformal prediction provides finite-sample, distribution-free coverage under exchangeability, but standard constructions may lack robustness in the presence of outliers or heavy tails. We propose a robust conformal method based on a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Alejandro Cholaquidis , Emilien Joly , Leonardo Moreno

Missing data is pervasive in econometric applications, and rarely is it plausible that the data are missing (completely) at random. This paper proposes a methodology for studying the robustness of results drawn from incomplete datasets.…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-29 Daniel Ober-Reynolds

Randomized smoothing has shown promising certified robustness against adversaries in classification tasks. Despite such success with only zeroth-order access to base models, randomized smoothing has not been extended to a general form of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-16 Aref Miri Rekavandi , Olga Ohrimenko , Benjamin I. P. Rubinstein

We evaluate the robustness of several large language models on multiple datasets. Robustness here refers to the relative insensitivity of the model's answers to meaning-preserving variants of their input. Benchmark datasets are constructed…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Samuel Ackerman , Ella Rabinovich , Eitan Farchi , Ateret Anaby-Tavor

We discuss recent work for causal inference and predictive robustness in a unifying way. The key idea relies on a notion of probabilistic invariance or stability: it opens up new insights for formulating causality as a certain risk…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-21 Peter Bühlmann

We introduce Harmonic Robustness, a powerful and intuitive method to test the robustness of any machine-learning model either during training or in black-box real-time inference monitoring without ground-truth labels. It is based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-30 Nicholas S. Kersting , Yi Li , Aman Mohanty , Oyindamola Obisesan , Raphael Okochu

Roughness parameters that characterize contacting surfaces with regard to friction and wear are commonly stated without uncertainties, or with an uncertainty only taking into account a very limited amount of aspects such as repeatability of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-07-20 Dorothee Hüser , Jonathan Hüser , Sebastian Rief , Jörg Seewig , Peter Thomsen-Schmidt

Robustness is often regarded as a critical future challenge for real-world applications, where stability is essential. However, as models often learn tasks in a similar order, we hypothesize that easier tasks will be easier regardless of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Shir Ashury-Tahan , Ariel Gera , Elron Bandel , Michal Shmueli-Scheuer , Leshem Choshen

Quantifying robustness in a single measure for the purposes of model selection, development of adversarial training methods, and anticipating trends has so far been elusive. The simplest metric to consider is the number of trainable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-25 David Khachaturov , Robert Mullins

To ensure reliable causal conclusions from observational (i.e., non-randomized) studies, researchers routinely conduct sensitivity analysis to assess robustness to hidden bias due to unmeasured confounding. In matched observational studies…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-11 Siyu Heng , Elaine K. Chiu , Hyunseung Kang

A confidence distribution is a distribution for a parameter of interest based on a parametric statistical model. As such, it serves the same purpose for frequentist statisticians as a posterior distribution for Bayesians, since it allows to…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-06 Erlis Ruli , Laura Ventura , Monica Musio

In learning problems, the noise inherent to the task at hand hinders the possibility to infer without a certain degree of uncertainty. Quantifying this uncertainty, regardless of its wide use, assumes high relevance for security-sensitive…

The assumption of no unmeasured confounders is a critical but unverifiable assumption required for causal inference yet quantitative sensitivity analyses to assess robustness of real-world evidence remains underutilized. The lack of use is…

Reinforcement learning has received significant interest in recent years, due primarily to the successes of deep reinforcement learning at solving many challenging tasks such as playing Chess, Go and online computer games. However, with the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-24 Laura L. Pullum

In various applications involving complex networks, network measures are employed to assess the relative importance of network nodes. However, the robustness of such measures in the presence of link inaccuracies has not been well…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-01-15 John Platig , Ed Ott , Michelle Girvan

With the introduction of machine learning in high-stakes decision making, ensuring algorithmic fairness has become an increasingly important problem to solve. In response to this, many mathematical definitions of fairness have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Edward Small , Wei Shao , Zeliang Zhang , Peihan Liu , Jeffrey Chan , Kacper Sokol , Flora Salim

Randomized smoothing is a popular certified defense against adversarial attacks. In its essence, we need to solve a problem of statistical estimation which is usually very time-consuming since we need to perform numerous (usually $10^5$)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-22 Vaclav Voracek

In many matching markets--such as athlete recruitment or academic admissions--participants on one side are evaluated by attribute vectors known to the other side, which in turn applies individual \emph{salience vectors} to assign relative…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Amit Ronen , S. S. Ravi , Sarit Kraus

We consider the problem of robustness in large consensus networks that occur in many areas such as distributed optimization. Robustness, in this context, is the scaling of performance measures, e.g. H2-norm, as a function of network…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-02-27 Tuhin Sarkar , Mardavij Roozbehani , Munther A. Dahleh

This paper introduces a new method for testing the statistical significance of estimated parameters in predictive regressions. The approach features a new family of test statistics that are robust to the degree of persistence of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-04 Jean-Yves Pitarakis