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Related papers: Distributional Discontinuity Design

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We perform a mathematical and statistical analysis of the Wasserstein least squares problem, a regression method for vector-valued covariates and distribution-valued responses. Our proposal contrasts with other distributional regression…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-29 Uriel Martínez León , Jonathan Niles-Weed

Distributionally-robust optimization is often studied for a fixed set of distributions rather than time-varying distributions that can drift significantly over time (which is, for instance, the case in finance and sociology due to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-10-01 Iman Shames , Farhad Farokhi

We present a novel approach for extrapolating causal effects away from the margin between treatment and non-treatment in sharp regression discontinuity designs with multiple covariates. Our methods apply both to settings in which treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-02 Ben Deaner , Soonwoo Kwon

Modeling observations as random distributions embedded within Wasserstein spaces is becoming increasingly popular across scientific fields, as it captures the variability and geometric structure of the data more effectively. However, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-08 François Bachoc , Alberto González-Sanz , Jean-Michel Loubes , Yisha Yao

We consider a general online stochastic optimization problem with multiple budget constraints over a horizon of finite time periods. In each time period, a reward function and multiple cost functions are revealed, and the decision maker…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-26 Jiashuo Jiang , Xiaocheng Li , Jiawei Zhang

Standard regression approaches assume that some finite number of the response distribution characteristics, such as location and scale, change as a (parametric or nonparametric) function of predictors. However, it is not always appropriate…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-14 Fernand A. Quintana , Peter Mueller , Alejandro Jara , Steven N. MacEachern

We investigate long-time behaviors of empirical measures associated with subordinated Dirichlet diffusion processes on a compact Riemannian manifold $M$ with boundary $\partial M$ to some reference measure, under the quadratic Wasserstein…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-09 Huaiqian Li , Bingyao Wu

In medical settings, treatment assignment may be determined by a clinically important covariate that predicts patients' risk of event. There is a class of methods from the social science literature known as regression discontinuity (RD)…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-13 Youngjoo Cho , Chen Hu , Debashis Ghosh

Distributional effects, captured by quantile frameworks, are well-received for characterizing heterogeneous impacts of economic factors across the unobserved relative ranks. Censored outcome, endogenous regressor and heteroskedastic error…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-06 Xi Wang

In causal inference, interference occurs when the treatment of one unit may affect the outcomes of other units. The goal of this work is to serve as a guide to the use of linear outcome modeling for estimating causal effects in settings…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-01 Eric Tong , Salvador V. Balkus

Tie-breaker designs trade off a statistical design objective with short-term gain from preferentially assigning a binary treatment to those with high values of a running variable $x$. The design objective is any continuous function of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-20 Harrison H. Li , Art B. Owen

In this paper, we show that interventionally robust optimization problems in causal models are continuous under the $G$-causal Wasserstein distance, but may be discontinuous under the standard Wasserstein distance. This highlights the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-20 Gabriele Visentin , Patrick Cheridito

This paper proposes a distributionally robust approach to regret optimal control of discrete-time linear dynamical systems with quadratic costs subject to a stochastic additive disturbance on the state process. The underlying probability…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-08-17 Feras Al Taha , Shuhao Yan , Eilyan Bitar

Clinical risk prediction is a valuable tool for guiding healthcare interventions toward those most likely to benefit. Yet, evaluating the pairing of a risk prediction model with an intervention using randomized controlled trials presents…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-31 Valerie Odeh-Couvertier , Gabriel Zayas-Caban , Brian Patterson , Amy Cochran

In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Yusuf Sale , Viktor Bengs , Michele Caprio , Eyke Hüllermeier

Wasserstein autoregression provides a robust framework for modeling serial dependence among probability distributions, with wide-ranging applications in economics, finance, and climate science. In this paper, we develop portmanteau-type…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Chenxiao Dai , Feiyu Jiang , Dong Li , Xiaofeng Shao

Among dissimilarities between probability distributions, the Kernel Stein Discrepancy (KSD) has received much interest recently. We investigate the properties of its Wasserstein gradient flow to approximate a target probability distribution…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-05-24 Anna Korba , Pierre-Cyril Aubin-Frankowski , Szymon Majewski , Pierre Ablin

In the setting of multi-armed trials, adaptive designs are a popular way to increase estimation efficiency, identify optimal treatments, or maximize rewards to individuals. Recent work has considered the case of estimating the effects of K…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Evan T. R. Rosenman , Kristen B. Hunter

In this paper we study the problems of estimating heterogeneity in causal effects in experimental or observational studies and conducting inference about the magnitude of the differences in treatment effects across subsets of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-08 Susan Athey , Guido Imbens

Many scientific systems, such as cellular populations or economic cohorts, are naturally described by probability distributions that evolve over time. Predicting how such a system would have evolved under different forces or initial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-26 Tristan Luca Saidi , Gonzalo Mena , Larry Wasserman , Florian Gunsilius