English
Related papers

Related papers: Expected Shortfall Regression via Optimization

200 papers

Regression problems with bounded continuous outcomes frequently arise in real-world statistical and machine learning applications, such as the analysis of rates and proportions. A central challenge in this setting is predicting a response…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-21 Zhanli Wu , Fabrizio Leisen , F. Javier Rubio

This paper proposes a specification test for the conventional distributional assumptions of error terms in binary choice models, focusing on its tail properties. Based on extreme value theory, we first establish that the tail index of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-31 Ting Ji , Laura Liu , Yulong Wang , Jiahe Xing

The dramatic growth of big datasets presents a new challenge to data storage and analysis. Data reduction, or subsampling, that extracts useful information from datasets is a crucial step in big data analysis. We propose an orthogonal…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-01 Lin Wang , Jake Elmstedt , Weng Kee Wong , Hongquan Xu

Streaming data often exhibit heterogeneity due to heteroscedastic variances or inhomogeneous covariate effects. Online renewable quantile and expectile regression methods provide valuable tools for detecting such heteroscedasticity by…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-27 Wei Cao , Shanshan Wanga , Xiaoxue Hua

Big data can easily be contaminated by outliers or contain variables with heavy-tailed distributions, which makes many conventional methods inadequate. To address this challenge, we propose the adaptive Huber regression for robust…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-11 Qiang Sun , Wenxin Zhou , Jianqing Fan

In this paper, we focus on distributed estimation and support recovery for high-dimensional linear quantile regression. Quantile regression is a popular alternative tool to the least squares regression for robustness against outliers and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-04 Caixing Wang , Ziliang Shen

Worst-case bounds on the expected shortfall risk given only limited information on the distribution of the random variables has been studied extensively in the literature. In this paper, we develop a new worst-case bound on the expected…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-02-12 Anulekha Dhara , Bikramjit Das , Karthik Natarajan

Generalized linear models are a popular tool in applied statistics, with their maximum likelihood estimators enjoying asymptotic Gaussianity and efficiency. As all models are wrong, it is desirable to understand these estimators' behaviours…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-10 Elliot H. Young , Rajen D. Shah

Count data frequently arises in biomedical applications, such as the length of hospital stay. However, their discrete nature poses significant challenges for appropriately modeling conditional quantiles, which are crucial for understanding…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-28 Yuta Yamauchi , Genya Kobayashi , Shonosuke Sugasawa

We introduce a semiparametric approach for forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) by modeling the conditional scale of financial returns, defined as the difference between two specified quantiles, via restricted…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-18 Xiaochun Liu , Richard Luger

In stochastic finance, one traditionally considers the return as a competitive measure of an asset, {\it i.e.}, the profit generated by that asset after some fixed time span $\Delta t$, say one week or one year. This measures how well (or…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-02 Ingve Simonsen , Mogens H. Jensen , Anders Johansen

Randomized controlled experiment has long been accepted as the golden standard for establishing causal link and estimating causal effect in various scientific fields. Average treatment effect is often used to summarize the effect…

Applications · Statistics 2016-10-14 Alex Deng , Pengchuan Zhang , Shouyuan Chen , Dong Woo Kim , Jiannan Lu

Capital allocation is a procedure for quantifying the contribution of each source of risk to aggregated risk. The gradient allocation rule, also known as the Euler principle, is a prevalent rule of capital allocation under which the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-06-28 Takaaki Koike , Cathy W. S. Chen , Edward M. H. Lin

Forecast combination methods have traditionally emphasized symmetric loss functions, particularly squared error loss, with equally weighted combinations often justified as a robust approach under such criteria. However, these justifications…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-08 Henry D. van Eijk , Sujit K. Ghosh

The concept of univariate Range Value-at-Risk, presented by Cont et al. (2010), is extended in the multidimensional setting. Traditional risk measures are not well suited when dealing with heavy-tail distributions and infinite tail…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-05-27 Roba Bairakdar , Lu Cao , Melina Mailhot

Compared to mean regression and quantile regression, the literature on modal regression is very sparse. A unifying framework for Bayesian modal regression is proposed, based on a family of unimodal distributions indexed by the mode, along…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-02 Qingyang Liu , Xianzheng Huang , Rai Bai

We consider the task of heavy-tailed statistical estimation given streaming $p$-dimensional samples. This could also be viewed as stochastic optimization under heavy-tailed distributions, with an additional $O(p)$ space complexity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-28 Che-Ping Tsai , Adarsh Prasad , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Pradeep Ravikumar

We derive new approximations for the Value at Risk and the Expected Shortfall at high levels of loss distributions with positive skewness and excess kurtosis, and we describe their precisions for notable ones such as for exponential, Pareto…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-12-25 Matyas Barczy , Adam Dudas , Jozsef Gall

We provide a statistical analysis of regularization-based continual learning on a sequence of linear regression tasks, with emphasis on how different regularization terms affect the model performance. We first derive the convergence rate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-11 Xuyang Zhao , Huiyuan Wang , Weiran Huang , Wei Lin

We consider outlier-robust and sparse estimation of linear regression coefficients, when the covariates and the noises are contaminated by adversarial outliers and noises are sampled from a heavy-tailed distribution. Our results present…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-27 Takeyuki Sasai , Hironori Fujisawa