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Related papers: Large Causal Models for Temporal Causal Discovery

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Existing causal discovery methods based on combinatorial optimization or search are slow, prohibiting their application on large-scale datasets. In response, more recent methods attempt to address this limitation by formulating causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-07 Victor Akinwande , J. Zico Kolter

Causal inference from observational data following the restricted structural causal model (SCM) framework hinges largely on the asymmetry between cause and effect from the data generating mechanisms, such as non-Gaussianity or nonlinearity.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-06 Kang Du , Yu Xiang

Understanding the factors that trigger or prevent undesirable health outcomes across patient subpopulations is essential for designing targeted interventions. While randomized controlled trials and expert-led patient interviews are standard…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Shishir Adhikari , Guido Muscioni , Mark Shapiro , Plamen Petrov , Elena Zheleva

Supervised Causal Learning (SCL) has shown promise in causal discovery by framing it as a supervised learning problem. However, it suffers from significant out-of-distribution generalization challenges. We reveal three limitations of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Zizhen Deng , Jiaru Zhang , Rui Ding , Huang Bojun , Jinzhuo Wang , Qiang Fu , Shi Han , Dongmei Zhang

We introduce a new paradigm for building large causal models (LCMs) that exploits the enormous potential latent in today's large language models (LLMs). We describe our ongoing experiments with an implemented system called DEMOCRITUS…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-12-09 Sridhar Mahadevan

Causal representation learning aims to unveil latent high-level causal representations from observed low-level data. One of its primary tasks is to provide reliable assurance of identifying these latent causal models, known as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-02 Yuhang Liu , Zhen Zhang , Dong Gong , Mingming Gong , Biwei Huang , Anton van den Hengel , Kun Zhang , Javen Qinfeng Shi

Causal machine learning (ML) recovers graphical structures that inform us about potential cause-and-effect relationships. Most progress has focused on cross-sectional data with no explicit time order, whereas recovering causal structures…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Bruno Petrungaro , Anthony C. Constantinou

The safe deployment of large language models (LLMs) in high-stakes fields like biomedicine, requires them to be able to reason about cause and effect. We investigate this ability by testing 13 open-source LLMs on a fundamental task:…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Sydney Anuyah , Sneha Shajee-Mohan , Ankit-Singh Chauhan , Sunandan Chakraborty

The aim in many sciences is to understand the mechanisms that underlie the observed distribution of variables, starting from a set of initial hypotheses. Causal discovery allows us to infer mechanisms as sets of cause and effect…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-05 Ashka Shah , Adela DePavia , Nathaniel Hudson , Ian Foster , Rick Stevens

Progress in probabilistic generative models has accelerated, developing richer models with neural architectures, implicit densities, and with scalable algorithms for their Bayesian inference. However, there has been limited progress in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-31 Dustin Tran , David M. Blei

Inferring causal relationships from observed data is an important task, yet it becomes challenging when the data is subject to various external interferences. Most of these interferences are the additional effects of external factors on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-14 Ruichu Cai , Xiaokai Huang , Wei Chen , Zijian Li , Zhifeng Hao

Latent variables pose a fundamental challenge to causal discovery and inference. Conventional local methods focus on direct neighbors but fail to provide macro level insights. Cluster level methods enable macro causal reasoning but either…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-27 Zongyu Li

Uncovering hidden symbolic laws from time series data, as an aspiration dating back to Kepler's discovery of planetary motion, remains a core challenge in scientific discovery and artificial intelligence. While Large Language Models show…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-27 Zewen Liu , Juntong Ni , Xianfeng Tang , Max S. Y. Lau , Qi He , Wenpeng Yin , Wei Jin

Large language model (LLM) agents-especially smaller, open-source models-often produce causally invalid or incoherent actions in collaborative tasks due to their reliance on surface-level correlations rather than grounded causal reasoning.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Minh Hoang Nguyen , Van Dai Do , Dung Nguyen , Thin Nguyen , Hung Le

Synthetic datasets generated by structural causal models (SCMs) are commonly used for benchmarking causal structure learning algorithms. However, the variances and pairwise correlations in SCM data tend to increase along the causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Weronika Ormaniec , Scott Sussex , Lars Lorch , Bernhard Schölkopf , Andreas Krause

Causal discovery uncovers complex relationships between variables, enhancing predictions, decision-making, and insights into real-world systems, especially in nonlinear multivariate time series. However, most existing methods primarily…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-30 Wasim Ahmad , Joachim Denzler , Maha Shadaydeh

Causal analysis has become an essential component in understanding the underlying causes of phenomena across various fields. Despite its significance, existing literature on causal discovery algorithms is fragmented, with inconsistent…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-09-05 Wenjin Niu , Zijun Gao , Liyan Song , Lingbo Li

Discovering causal relationships from time series data is significant in fields such as finance, climate science, and neuroscience. However, contemporary techniques rely on the simplifying assumption that data originates from the same…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-25 Sumanth Varambally , Yi-An Ma , Rose Yu

For a given causal question, it is important to efficiently decide which causal inference method to use for a given dataset. This is challenging because causal methods typically rely on complex and difficult-to-verify assumptions, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-09 Shantanu Gupta , Cheng Zhang , Agrin Hilmkil

We present a constraint-based algorithm for learning causal structures from observational time-series data, in the presence of latent confounders. We assume a discrete-time, stationary structural vector autoregressive process, with both…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-06-02 Raanan Y. Rohekar , Shami Nisimov , Yaniv Gurwicz , Gal Novik