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Data assimilation (DA) improves prediction of chaotic systems by combining model forecasts with sparse, noisy observations. Many DA methods are inherently probabilistic, but accurate probabilistic DA is often computationally expensive…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2026-04-24 Aditya Sai Pranith Ayapilla , Kazuya Miyashita , Yuki Yasuda , Ryo Onishi

Fast surrogate models for expensive simulations are now essential across the sciences, yet they typically operate as black boxes. We present \texttt{GWAgent}, a large language model (LLM)-based workflow that constructs interpretable…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2026-05-13 Tousif Islam , Digvijay Wadekar , Tejaswi Venumadhav , Matias Zaldarriaga , Ajit Kumar Mehta , Javier Roulet , Barak Zackay

Recent advancements in video generation have demonstrated the potential of using video diffusion models as world models, with autoregressive generation of infinitely long videos through masked conditioning. However, such models, usually…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Taiye Chen , Zihan Ding , Anjian Li , Christina Zhang , Zeqi Xiao , Yisen Wang , Chi Jin

Super-resolving the coarse outputs of global climate simulations, termed downscaling, is crucial in making political and social decisions on systems requiring long-term climate change projections. Existing fast super-resolution techniques,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-04-18 Norihiro Oyama , Noriko N. Ishizaki , Satoshi Koide , Hiroaki Yoshida

The use of surrogate models instead of computationally expensive simulation codes is very convenient in engineering. Roughly speaking, there are two kinds of surrogate models: the deterministic and the probabilistic ones. These last are…

Applications · Statistics 2015-12-24 Malek Ben Salem , Olivier Roustant , Fabrice Gamboa , Lionel Tomaso

Accurate and predictive scale-resolving simulations of laser-ignited rocket engines are highly time-consuming because the problem includes turbulent fuel-oxidizer mixing dynamics, laser-induced energy deposition, and high-speed flame…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Tony Zahtila , Ettore Saetta , Murray Cutforth , Davy Brouzet , Diego Rossinelli , Gianluca Iaccarino

For autoregressive modeling of chaotic dynamical systems over long time horizons, the stability of both training and inference is a major challenge in building scientific foundation models. We present a hybrid technique in which an…

Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are increasingly popular as predictive models in machine learning (ML) for their non-stationary flexibility and ability to cope with abrupt regime changes in training data. Here we explore DGPs as surrogates…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-27 Annie Sauer , Robert B. Gramacy , David Higdon

The dominant paradigm for power system dynamic simulation is to build system-level simulations by combining physics-based models of individual components. The sheer size of the system along with the rapid integration of inverter-based…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-10-24 Matthew Bossart , Jose Daniel Lara , Ciaran Roberts , Rodrigo Henriquez-Auba , Duncan Callaway , Bri-Mathias Hodge

We develop a recurrent gamma belief network (rGBN) for radar automatic target recognition (RATR) based on high-resolution range profile (HRRP), which characterizes the temporal dependence across the range cells of HRRP. The proposed rGBN…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-02 Dandan Guo , Bo Chen , Wenchao Chen , Chaojie Wang , Hongwei Liu , Mingyuan Zhou

While time series diffusion models have received considerable focus from many recent works, the performance of existing models remains highly unstable. Factors limiting time series diffusion models include insufficient time series datasets…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-25 Jingwei Liu , Ling Yang , Hongyan Li , Shenda Hong

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) provides high-fidelity simulations of fluid flows but remains computationally expensive for many-query applications. In recent years deep learning (DL) has been used to construct data-driven fluid-dynamic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-13 David Ramos , Lucas Lacasa , Fermín Gutiérrez , Eusebio Valero , Gonzalo Rubio

We present GKFieldFlow, a novel three-dimensional autoregressive deep learning surrogate model for nonlinear gyrokinetic turbulence. Based on the architecture FieldFlow-Net, this model combines a multi-resolution 3D U-Net encoder-decoder…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2026-01-07 Arash Ashourvan

This paper develops a surrogate model refinement approach for the simulation of dynamical systems and the solution of optimization problems governed by dynamical systems in which surrogates replace expensive-to-compute state- and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-08 Jonathan R. Cangelosi , Matthias Heinkenschloss

Predicting precipitation maps is a highly complex spatiotemporal modeling task, critical for mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events. Short-term precipitation forecasting, or nowcasting, requires models that are not only accurate…

We introduce a method to construct a stochastic surrogate model from the results of dimensionality reduction in forward uncertainty quantification. The hypothesis is that the high-dimensional input augmented by the output of a computational…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-12 Jungho Kim , Sang-ri Yi , Ziqi Wang

Researchers in urban and regional studies increasingly deal with spatial data that reflects geographic location and spatial relationships. As a framework for dealing with the unique nature of spatial data, various spatial regression models…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-17 Michael Balzer

Machine learning models struggle with generalization when encountering out-of-distribution (OOD) samples with unexpected distribution shifts. For vision tasks, recent studies have shown that test-time adaptation employing diffusion models…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-04-03 Yun-Yun Tsai , Fu-Chen Chen , Albert Y. C. Chen , Junfeng Yang , Che-Chun Su , Min Sun , Cheng-Hao Kuo

The optimal and robust design of structures has gained much attention in the past ten years due to the ever increasing need for manufacturers to build robust systems at the lowest cost. Reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) allows…

Applications · Statistics 2017-04-12 Vincent Dubourg , Jean-Marc Bourinet , Bruno Sudret

The reliable deployment of deep reinforcement learning in real-world settings requires the ability to generalize across a variety of conditions, including both in-distribution scenarios seen during training as well as novel…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-26 James Queeney , Xiaoyi Cai , Alexander Schperberg , Radu Corcodel , Mouhacine Benosman , Jonathan P. How