Related papers: Using Time Series Measures to Explore Family Plann…
Understanding patterns in mortality across subpopulations is essential for local health policy decision making. One of the key challenges of subnational mortality rate estimation is the presence of small populations and zero or near zero…
This paper proposes a novel framework for multi-group shape analysis relying on a hierarchical graphical statistical model on shapes within a population.The framework represents individual shapes as point setsmodulo translation, rotation,…
Time series that display periodicity can be described with a Fourier expansion. In a similar vein, a recently developed formalism enables description of growth patterns with the optimal number of parameters (Elitzur et al, 2020). The method…
We consider the problem of probabilistic projection of the total fertility rate (TFR) for subnational regions. We seek a method that is consistent with the UN's recently adopted Bayesian method for probabilistic TFR projections for all…
We briefly communicate results of a nonparametric and robust evaluation of effects of \emph{the Fourth Millennium Development Goal of United Nations}. Main aim of the goal was reducing by two thirds, between 1990--2015, the under five…
In the current context of Big Data, the nature of many forecasting problems has changed from predicting isolated time series to predicting many time series from similar sources. This has opened up the opportunity to develop competitive…
In this study, we present a collection of local models, termed geographically weighted (GW) models, that can be found within the GWmodel R package. A GW model suits situations when spatial data are poorly described by the global form, and…
Demographic models built from genetic data play important roles in illuminating prehistorical events and serving as null models in genome scans for selection. We introduce an inference method based on the joint frequency spectrum of genetic…
People are living longer than ever before, and with this arises new complications and challenges for humanity. Among the most pressing of these challenges is of understanding the role of aging in the development of dementia. This paper is…
Abortion is one of the biggest causes of maternal deaths, accounting for 15% of maternal deaths in Southeast Asia. The increase in and effectiveness of using contraception are still considered to be the effective method to reduce abortion…
Global Forecasting Models (GFM) that are trained across a set of multiple time series have shown superior results in many forecasting competitions and real-world applications compared with univariate forecasting approaches. One aspect of…
In low- and middle-income countries, household surveys are the most reliable data source to examine health and demographic indicators at the subnational level, an exercise in small area estimation. Model-based unit-level models are favored…
Evaluating the relevance of an exogenous data series is the first step in improving the prediction capabilities of a forecast algorithm. Inspired by existing metrics for time series similarity, we introduce a new approach named FARM -…
Accurate and timely population data are essential for disaster response and humanitarian planning, but traditional censuses often cannot capture rapid demographic changes. Social media data offer a promising alternative for dynamic…
Using a time series model to mimic an observed time series has a long history. However, with regard to this objective, conventional estimation methods for discrete-time dynamical models are frequently found to be wanting. In fact, they are…
Effective utilization of time series data is often constrained by the scarcity of data quantity that reflects complex dynamics, especially under the condition of distributional shifts. Existing datasets may not encompass the full range of…
In this paper, we introduce and study an age-structured epidemiological compartment model and its respective problem, applied but not limited to the COVID-19 pandemic, in order to investigate the role of the age of the individuals in the…
Emergency Medical Services (EMS) demand load has become a considerable burden for many government authorities, and EMS demand is often an early indicator for stress in communities, a warning sign of emerging problems. In this paper, we…
Ignoring the differences between countries, human reproductive and dispersal behaviors can be described by some standardized models, so whether there is a universal law of population growth hidden in the abundant and unstructured data from…
Recent advancements in deep learning have led to the development of various models for long-term multivariate time-series forecasting (LMTF), many of which have shown promising results. Generally, the focus has been on…