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Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification with machine learning models. While conformal prediction provides probabilistic guarantees regarding the coverage of the true label, these guarantees are agnostic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Aditya T. Vadlamani , Anutam Srinivasan , Pranav Maneriker , Ali Payani , Srinivasan Parthasarathy

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty estimation framework that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true answer with a user-specified probability. Intuitively, the size of the prediction set encodes a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Alvaro H. C. Correia , Fabio Valerio Massoli , Christos Louizos , Arash Behboodi

Conformal Prediction (CP) has emerged as a powerful statistical framework for high-stakes classification applications. Instead of predicting a single class, CP generates a prediction set, guaranteed to include the true label with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Ariel Fargion , Lahav Dabah , Tom Tirer

While counterfactual fairness of point predictors is well studied, its extension to prediction sets--central to fair decision-making under uncertainty--remains underexplored. On the other hand, conformal prediction (CP) provides efficient,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Ozgur Guldogan , Neeraj Sarna , Yuanyuan Li , Michael Berger

Conformal prediction (CP) is a powerful framework for uncertainty quantification, generating prediction sets with coverage guarantees. Split conformal prediction relies on labeled data in the calibration procedure. However, the labeled data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-11 Xuanning Zhou , Zihao Shi , Hao Zeng , Xiaobo Xia , Bingyi Jing , Hongxin Wei

Conformal prediction (CP) is a wrapper around traditional machine learning models, giving coverage guarantees under the sole assumption of exchangeability; in classification problems, for a chosen significance level $\varepsilon$, CP…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-23 Javier Abad , Umang Bhatt , Adrian Weller , Giovanni Cherubin

Conformal prediction (CP) is a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models, offering reliable predictions with finite-sample coverage guarantees. When applied to classification, CP produces a prediction set of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Floris den Hengst , Inès Blin , Majid Mohammadi , Syed Ihtesham Hussain Shah , Taraneh Younesian

Machine learning (ML) is transforming healthcare, but safe clinical decisions demand reliable uncertainty estimates that standard ML models fail to provide. Conformal prediction (CP) is a popular tool that allows users to turn heuristic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-18 Klaus-Rudolf Kladny , Bernhard Schölkopf , Lisa Koch , Christian F. Baumgartner , Michael Muehlebach

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a widely used technique for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models. In its standard form, CP offers probabilistic guarantees on the coverage of the true label, but it is agnostic to sensitive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Anutam Srinivasan , Aditya T. Vadlamani , Amin Meghrazi , Srinivasan Parthasarathy

Reliable uncertainty quantification is critical for trustworthy AI. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides prediction sets with distribution-free coverage guarantees, but its two main variants face complementary limitations. Split CP (SCP)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Weicao Deng , Sangwoo Park , Min Li , Osvaldo Simeone

Conformal prediction (CP) is a general framework to quantify the predictive uncertainty of machine learning models that uses a set prediction to include the true label with a valid probability. To align the uncertainty measured by CP,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Xuesong Jia , Yuanjie Shi , Ziquan Liu , Yi Xu , Yan Yan

Large language models are increasingly deployed in settings where reliability matters, yet output-level uncertainty signals such as token probabilities, entropy, and self-consistency can become brittle under calibration--deployment…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-20 Yanli Wang , Peng Kuang , Xiaoyu Han , Kaidi Xu , Haohan Wang

This study aims to address the pervasive challenge of quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) without logit-access. Conformal Prediction (CP), known for its model-agnostic and distribution-free features, is a desired…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-04-05 Jiayuan Su , Jing Luo , Hongwei Wang , Lu Cheng

We introduce a method based on Conformal Prediction (CP) to quantify the uncertainty of full ranking algorithms. We focus on a specific scenario where $n+m$ items are to be ranked by some ``black box'' algorithm. It is assumed that the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-04 Jean-Baptiste Fermanian , Pierre Humbert , Gilles Blanchard

Conformal prediction (CP), a distribution-free uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework, reliably provides valid predictive inference for black-box models. CP constructs prediction sets that contain the true output with a specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Xiaofan Zhou , Baiting Chen , Yu Gui , Lu Cheng

Conformal Prediction (CP) serves as a robust framework that quantifies uncertainty in predictions made by Machine Learning (ML) models. Unlike traditional point predictors, CP generates statistically valid prediction regions, also known as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-29 A. A. Balinsky , A. D. Balinsky

Continual Learning (CL) is essential for enabling self-evolving large language models (LLMs) to adapt and remain effective amid rapid knowledge growth. Yet, despite its importance, little attention has been given to establishing statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Xiaofan Zhou , Lu Cheng

Precise estimation of predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks is a critical requirement for reliable decision-making in machine learning and statistical modeling, particularly in the context of medical AI. Conformal Prediction (CP)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-05 Hamed Karimi , Reza Samavi

Conformal Predictors (CP) are wrappers around ML models, providing error guarantees under weak assumptions on the data distribution. They are suitable for a wide range of problems, from classification and regression to anomaly detection.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-06 Giovanni Cherubin , Konstantinos Chatzikokolakis , Martin Jaggi

Machine-learning techniques are essential in modern collider research, yet their probabilistic outputs often lack calibrated uncertainty estimates and finite-sample guarantees, limiting their direct use in statistical inference and…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2025-12-22 Jack Y. Araz , Michael Spannowsky
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