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Faithful evaluation of language model capabilities is crucial for deriving actionable insights that can inform model development. However, rigorous causal evaluations in this domain face significant methodological challenges, including…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-13 Jikai Jin , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Sham Kakade , Hanlin Zhang

Objective: The growing availability of large-scale observational clinical datasets and challenges in conducting randomized controlled trials have spurred enthusiasm in using causal machine learning (ML) for causal inference in observational…

Causal inference is at the heart of empirical research in natural and social sciences and is critical for scientific discovery and informed decision making. The gold standard in causal inference is performing randomized controlled trials;…

Databases · Computer Science 2020-04-09 Babak Salimi , Harsh Parikh , Moe Kayali , Sudeepa Roy , Lise Getoor , Dan Suciu

Detecting anomalies in tabular data is critical for many real-world applications, such as credit card fraud detection. With the rapid advancements in large language models (LLMs), state-of-the-art performance in tabular anomaly detection…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Ruiqi Wang , Ruikang Liu , Runyu Chen , Haoxiang Suo , Zhiyi Peng , Zhuo Tang , Changjian Chen

Constraint-based causal discovery is brittle in finite-sample regimes because erroneous conditional-independence (CI) decisions can cascade into substantial structural errors. We propose Quantitative Argumentation for Causal Discovery…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Sheng Wei , Yulin Chen , Beishui Liao

Language model (LM) agents are increasingly used as autonomous decision-makers which need to actively gather information to guide their decisions. A crucial cognitive skill for such agents is the efficient exploration and understanding of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Anthony GX-Chen , Dongyan Lin , Mandana Samiei , Doina Precup , Blake A. Richards , Rob Fergus , Kenneth Marino

The instrumental variables (IVs) method is a leading empirical strategy for causal inference. Finding IVs is a heuristic and creative process, and justifying its validity -- especially exclusion restrictions -- is largely rhetorical. We…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-06 Sukjin Han

Causal discovery aims to infer causal relationships among variables from observational data, typically represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Most existing methods assume independent and identically distributed observations, an…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Alex Chen , Qing Zhou

Causal representation learning seeks to recover latent factors that generate observational data through a mixing function. Needing assumptions on latent structures or relationships to achieve identifiability in general, prior works often…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Kwonho Kim , Heejeong Nam , Inwoo Hwang , Sanghack Lee

Causal reasoning (CR) is a crucial aspect of intelligence, essential for problem-solving, decision-making, and understanding the world. While language models (LMs) can generate rationales for their outputs, their ability to reliably perform…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-19 Longxuan Yu , Delin Chen , Siheng Xiong , Qingyang Wu , Qingzhen Liu , Dawei Li , Zhikai Chen , Xiaoze Liu , Liangming Pan

Causal reasoning, the ability to identify cause-and-effect relationship, is crucial in human thinking. Although large language models (LLMs) succeed in many NLP tasks, it is still challenging for them to conduct complex causal reasoning…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-05-31 Xiao Liu , Da Yin , Chen Zhang , Yansong Feng , Dongyan Zhao

Despite the recent successes of large, pretrained neural language models (LLMs), comparatively little is known about the representations of linguistic structure they learn during pretraining, which can lead to unexpected behaviors in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-24 Adam Davies , Jize Jiang , ChengXiang Zhai

Causal discovery algorithms aim at untangling complex causal relationships from data. Here, we study causal discovery and inference methods based on staged tree models, which can represent complex and asymmetric causal relationships between…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-02 Manuele Leonelli , Gherardo Varando

Causal reasoning is a core component of intelligence. Large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive capabilities in generating human-like text, raising questions about whether their responses reflect true understanding or statistical…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Hanna M. Dettki , Brenden M. Lake , Charley M. Wu , Bob Rehder

Randomized experiments or randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are gold standards for causal inference, yet cost and sample-size constraints limit power. We introduce CALM (Causal Analysis leveraging Language Models), a statistical framework…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-09 Xinrui Ruan , Xinwei Ma , Yingfei Wang , Waverly Wei , Jingshen Wang

In the field of Artificial Intelligence for Information Technology Operations, causal discovery is pivotal for operation and maintenance of graph construction, facilitating downstream industrial tasks such as root cause analysis. Temporal…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Peiwen Li , Xin Wang , Zeyang Zhang , Yuan Meng , Fang Shen , Yue Li , Jialong Wang , Yang Li , Wenweu Zhu

Causality is receiving increasing attention by the artificial intelligence and machine learning communities. This paper gives an example of modelling a recommender system problem using causal graphs. Specifically, we approached the causal…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-09-17 Emanuele Cavenaghi , Fabio Stella , Markus Zanker

Learning causal structure from observational data is central to scientific modeling and decision-making. Constraint-based methods aim to recover conditional independence (CI) relations in a causal directed acyclic graph (DAG). Classical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Ruiqi Lyu , Alistair Turcan , Martin Jinye Zhang , Bryan Wilder

The need for modelling causal knowledge at different levels of granularity arises in several settings. Causal Abstraction provides a framework for formalizing this problem by relating two Structural Causal Models at different levels of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Riccardo Massidda , Sara Magliacane , Davide Bacciu

This paper addresses the problem of estimating causal directed acyclic graphs in linear non-Gaussian acyclic models with latent confounders (LvLiNGAM). Existing methods assume mutually independent latent confounders or cannot properly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Ming Cai , Penggang Gao , Hisayuki Hara