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We tackle the problem of system identification, where we select inputs, observe the corresponding outputs from the true system, and optimize the parameters of our model to best fit the data. We propose a practical and computationally…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-02 Alexandros E. Tzikas , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently regained a significant amount of attention in the deep learning community due to the development of scalable approximate Bayesian inference techniques. There are several advantages of using a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-02 Aliaksandr Hubin , Geir Storvik

Graphical models describe associations between variables through the notion of conditional independence. Gaussian graphical models are a widely used class of such models where the relationships are formalized by non-null entries of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-08 Sagnik Bhadury , Riten Mitra , Jeremy T. Gaskins

Bayesian inference has many advantages in robotic motion planning over four perspectives: The uncertainty quantification of the policy, safety (risk-aware) and optimum guarantees of robot motions, data-efficiency in training of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-07-18 Chengmin Zhou , Chao Wang , Haseeb Hassan , Himat Shah , Bingding Huang , Pasi Fränti

It is argued that the Calibrated Bayesian (CB) approach to statistical inference capitalizes on the strength of Bayesian and frequentist approaches to statistical inference. In the CB approach, inferences under a particular model are…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-08-10 Roderick Little

Models with intractable normalizing functions arise frequently in statistics. Common examples of such models include exponential random graph models for social networks and Markov point processes for ecology and disease modeling. Inference…

Computation · Statistics 2018-08-03 Jaewoo Park , Murali Haran

Computer experiments are becoming increasingly important in scientific investigations. In the presence of uncertainty, analysts employ probabilistic sensitivity methods to identify the key-drivers of change in the quantities of interest.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-02 Isadora Antoniano-Villalobos , Emanuele Borgonovo , Xuefei Lu

The recent article "A Bayesian conjugate gradient method" by Cockayne, Oates, Ipsen, and Girolami proposes an approximately Bayesian iterative procedure for the solution of a system of linear equations, based on the conjugate gradient…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-06-26 T. J. Sullivan

Approximate Bayesian computing is a powerful likelihood-free method that has grown increasingly popular since early applications in population genetics. However, complications arise in the theoretical justification for Bayesian inference…

Computation · Statistics 2018-12-03 Suzanne Thornton , Wentao Li , Min-ge Xie

Bayesian optimization is a sample-efficient method for solving expensive, black-box optimization problems. Stochastic programming concerns optimization under uncertainty where, typically, average performance is the quantity of interest. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-19 Jack M. Buckingham , Ivo Couckuyt , Juergen Branke

Benchmarking estimation and its risk evaluation is a practically important issue in small area estimation. While Bayesian methods have been widely adopted in small area estimation, existing benchmarking approaches are often ad-hoc, such as…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-22 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Genya Kobayashi , Yuki Kawakubo

Regression classes modeling more than the mean of the response have found a lot of attention in the last years. Expectile regression is a special and computationally convenient case of this family of models. Expectiles offer a quantile-like…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-19 Elisabeth Waldmann , Fabian Sobotka , Thomas Kneib

The Bayesian evidence is a key tool in model selection, allowing a comparison of models with different numbers of parameters. Its use in analysis of cosmological models has been limited by difficulties in calculating it, with current…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2023-02-01 Juan Garcia-Bellido

Variational inference uses optimization, rather than integration, to approximate the marginal likelihood, and thereby the posterior, in a Bayesian model. Thanks to advances in computational scalability made in the last decade, variational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-04 Jens Sjölund

Bayesian Optimization is a sample-efficient black-box optimization procedure that is typically applied to problems with a small number of independent objectives. However, in practice we often wish to optimize objectives defined over many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-29 Wesley J. Maddox , Maximilian Balandat , Andrew Gordon Wilson , Eytan Bakshy

Rich data generating mechanisms are ubiquitous in this age of information and require complex statistical models to draw meaningful inference. While Bayesian analysis has seen enormous development in the last 30 years, benefitting from the…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-20 Radu V. Craiu , Evgeny Levi

Following the idea of Bayesian learning via Gaussian mixture model, we organically combine the backward-looking information contained in the historical data and the forward-looking information implied by the market portfolio, which is…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-05-30 Yi Huang , Wei Zhu , Duan Li , Shushang Zhu , Shikun Wang

Although Bayesian density estimation using discrete mixtures has good performance in modest dimensions, there is a lack of statistical and computational scalability to high-dimensional multivariate cases. To combat the curse of…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-29 Ye Wang , Antonio Canale , David Dunson

This survey provides an exposition of a suite of techniques based on the theory of polynomials, collectively referred to as polynomial methods, which have recently been applied to address several challenging problems in statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-22 Yihong Wu , Pengkun Yang

Although Bayesian methods are robust and principled, their application in practice could be limited since they typically rely on computationally intensive Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms for their implementation. One possible solution…

Computation · Statistics 2015-10-06 Tian Chen , Jeffrey Streets , Babak Shahbaba
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