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Nonparametric regression is a standard statistical tool with increased importance in the Big Data era. Boundary points pose additional difficulties but local polynomial regression can be used to alleviate them. Local linear regression, for…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2017-04-04 Srinjoy Das , Dimitris N. Politis

Unmeasured confounding is a fundamental obstacle to causal inference from observational data. Latent-variable methods address this challenge by imputing unobserved confounders, yet many lack explicit model-based identification guarantees…

Computation · Statistics 2026-03-03 Yaxin Fang , Faming Liang

The problem of developing binary classifiers from positive and unlabeled data is often encountered in machine learning. A common requirement in this setting is to approximate posterior probabilities of positive and negative classes for a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-01-11 Shantanu Jain , Martha White , Michael W. Trosset , Predrag Radivojac

We study the problem of learning causal representations from unknown, latent interventions in a general setting, where the latent distribution is Gaussian but the mixing function is completely general. We prove strong identifiability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-19 Simon Buchholz , Goutham Rajendran , Elan Rosenfeld , Bryon Aragam , Bernhard Schölkopf , Pradeep Ravikumar

Estimating the distribution of outcomes under counterfactual policies is critical for decision-making in domains such as recommendation, advertising, and healthcare. We propose and analyze a novel framework-Counterfactual Policy Mean…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-29 Houssam Zenati , Bariscan Bozkurt , Arthur Gretton

It is important to draw causal inference from observational studies, which, however, becomes challenging if the confounders have missing values. Generally, causal effects are not identifiable if the confounders are missing not at random. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-04 Shu Yang , Linbo Wang , Peng Ding

Recent approaches to causal inference have focused on causal effects defined as contrasts between the distribution of counterfactual outcomes under hypothetical interventions on the nodes of a graphical model. In this article we develop…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-26 Iván Díaz

Estimating treatment effects from observational data is challenging due to two main reasons: (a) hidden confounding, and (b) covariate mismatch (control and treatment groups not having identical distributions). Long lines of works exist…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-30 Praharsh Nanavati , Ranjitha Prasad , Karthikeyan Shanmugam

We propose a semiparametric framework for causal inference with right-censored survival outcomes and many weak invalid instruments, motivated by Mendelian randomization in biobank studies where classical methods may fail. We adopt an…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-06 Qiushi Bu , Wen Su , Xingqiu Zhao , Zhonghua Liu

The development of modern technology has enabled data collection of unprecedented size, which poses new challenges to many statistical estimation and inference problems. This paper studies the maximum score estimator of a semi-parametric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-25 Xi Chen , Wenbo Jing , Weidong Liu , Yichen Zhang

Clinical machine learning applications are often plagued with confounders that are clinically irrelevant, but can still artificially boost the predictive performance of the algorithms. Confounding is especially problematic in mobile health…

Applications · Statistics 2018-11-29 Elias Chaibub Neto

We study parametric inference for diffusion processes when observations occur nonsynchronously and are contaminated by market microstructure noise. We construct a quasi-likelihood function and study asymptotic mixed normality of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-12-29 Teppei Ogihara

We consider after-study statistical inference for sequentially designed experiments wherein multiple units are assigned treatments for multiple time points using treatment policies that adapt over time. Our goal is to provide inference…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-10 Raaz Dwivedi , Katherine Tian , Sabina Tomkins , Predrag Klasnja , Susan Murphy , Devavrat Shah

We introduce a new approach to probabilistic unsupervised learning based on the recognition-parametrised model (RPM): a normalised semi-parametric hypothesis class for joint distributions over observed and latent variables. Under the key…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-21 William I. Walker , Hugo Soulat , Changmin Yu , Maneesh Sahani

Statistical inference with nonresponse is quite challenging, especially when the response mechanism is nonignorable. In this case, the validity of statistical inference depends on untestable correct specification of the response model. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-15 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Kosuke Morikawa , Keisuke Takahata

Conditional estimation given specific covariate values (i.e., local conditional estimation or functional estimation) is ubiquitously useful with applications in engineering, social and natural sciences. Existing data-driven non-parametric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-13 Viet Anh Nguyen , Fan Zhang , Jose Blanchet , Erick Delage , Yinyu Ye

We study the semiparametric efficient estimation of a class of linear functionals in settings where a complete multivariate dataset is supplemented by additional datasets recording subsets of the variables of interest. These datasets are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-19 Thomas B. Berrett

This paper studies the non-parametric estimation and uniform inference for the conditional quantile regression function (CQRF) with covariates exposed to measurement errors. We consider the case that the distribution of the measurement…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-03 Haoze Hou , Wei Huang , Zheng Zhang

Interference arises when the treatment assigned to one individual affects the outcomes of other individuals. Commonly, individuals are naturally grouped into clusters, and interference occurs only among individuals within the same cluster,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-15 Chao Cheng , Fan Li

We address the problem of estimating causal effects from observational data in the presence of network confounding, a setting where both treatment assignment and observed outcomes of individuals may be influenced by their neighbors within a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Abhishek Dalvi , Neil Ashtekar , Vasant Honavar