Related papers: The SLAM Confidence Trap

Accuracy in spreadsheet modelling systems can be reduced due to difficulties with the inputs, the model itself, or the spreadsheet implementation of the model. When the "true" outputs from the system are unknowable, accuracy is evaluated…

While recent safety guardrails effectively suppress overtly biased outputs, subtler forms of social bias emerge during complex logical reasoning tasks that evade current evaluation benchmarks. To fill this gap, we introduce a new evaluation…

Despite the widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs) for recommendation, we demonstrate that LLMs often exhibit uncertainty in their recommendations. To ensure the trustworthy use of LLMs in generating recommendations, we…

The ability to estimate rich geometry and camera motion from monocular imagery is fundamental to future interactive robotics and augmented reality applications. Different approaches have been proposed that vary in scene geometry…

Uncertainty estimation is critical for deploying reasoning language models, yet remains poorly understood under extended chain-of-thought reasoning. We study parallel sampling as a fully black-box approach using verbalized confidence and…

Classifiers are often tested on relatively small data sets, which should lead to uncertain performance metrics. Nevertheless, these metrics are usually taken at face value. We present an approach to quantify the uncertainty of…

Observability is a key aspect of the state estimation problem of SLAM, However, the dimension and variables of SLAM system might be changed with new features, to which little attention is paid in the previous work. In this paper, a unified…

Multi-armed bandit (MAB) algorithms have achieved significant success in sequential decision-making applications, under the premise that humans perfectly implement the recommended policy. However, existing methods often overlook the crucial…

As neural networks become more popular, the need for accompanying uncertainty estimates increases. There are currently two main approaches to test the quality of these estimates. Most methods output a density. They can be compared by…

Large language models (LLMs) often generate fluent but factually incorrect outputs, known as hallucinations, which undermine their reliability in real-world applications. While uncertainty estimation has emerged as a promising strategy for…

The expanding integration of Large Language Models (LLMs) into recommender systems poses critical challenges to evaluation reliability. This paper identifies and investigates a previously overlooked issue: benchmark data leakage in…

We investigate the calibration of large language models' (LLMs') confidence across diverse tasks. The results of our preregistered study show that the current crop of LLMs are, like people, too sure they are right: confidence exceeds…

The rapid adoption of LLMs in both research and industry highlights the challenges of deploying them safely and reveals a gap in the systematic evaluation of toxicity benchmarks. As organizations increasingly rely on these benchmarks to…

Machine learning (ML) algorithms are increasingly deployed to make critical decisions in socioeconomic applications such as finance, criminal justice, and autonomous driving. However, due to their data-driven and pattern-seeking nature, ML…

Astronomy is entering an era of data-driven discovery, due in part to modern machine learning (ML) techniques enabling powerful new ways to interpret observations. This shift in our scientific approach requires us to consider whether we can…

Recent studies on the safety alignment of large language models (LLMs) have revealed that existing approaches often operate superficially, leaving models vulnerable to various adversarial attacks. Despite their significance, these studies…

Nowadays we are witnessing a transformation of the business processes towards a more computation driven approach. The ever increasing usage of Machine Learning techniques is the clearest example of such trend. This sort of revolution is…

This report examines a novel risk associated with current (and projected) AI tools. Making effective decisions about future actions requires us to reason under uncertainty (RUU), and doing so is essential to many critical real world…

We present extensive empirical evidence showing that current Bayesian simulation-based inference algorithms can produce computationally unfaithful posterior approximations. Our results show that all benchmarked algorithms -- (Sequential)…

Agent skills - structured packages of instructions, scripts, and references that augment a large language model (LLM) without modifying the model itself - have moved from convenience to first-class deployment artifact. The runtime that…