Related papers: Reciprocal Specific Relative Entropy between Conti…

Distributional regression aims at estimating the conditional distribution of a targetvariable given explanatory co-variates. It is a crucial tool for forecasting whena precise uncertainty quantification is required. A popular methodology…

We show that the naive application of the maximum entropy principle can yield answers which depend on the level of description, i.e. the result is not invariant under coarse-graining. We demonstrate that the correct approach, even for…

In this paper, we consider a class of stochastic optimal control problems with risk constraints that are expressed as bounded probabilities of failure for particular initial states. We present here a martingale approach that diffuses a risk…

In the propositional setting, the marginal problem is to find a (maximum-entropy) distribution that has some given marginals. We study this problem in a relational setting and make the following contributions. First, we compare two…

Distributionally robust optimization has been shown to offer a principled way to regularize learning models. In this paper, we find that Tikhonov regularization is distributionally robust in an optimal transport sense (i.e., if an adversary…

This work shows how exponential concentration inequalities for additive functionals of stochastic processes over a finite time interval can be derived from concentration inequalities for martingales. The approach is entirely probabilistic…

In green security, defenders must forecast adversarial behavior, such as poaching, illegal logging, and illegal fishing, to plan effective patrols. These behavior are often highly uncertain and complex. Prior work has leveraged game theory…

In this paper we propose a Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimation strategy for discretely observed Wright-Fisher diffusions. Our approach provides an unbiased estimator of the likelihood function and is based on exact simulation…

We study optimal covariate balance for causal inferences from observational data when rich covariates and complex relationships necessitate flexible modeling with neural networks. Standard approaches such as propensity weighting and…

We investigate model risk and distributionally robust optimization (DRO) under marginal and martingale constraints. Building on our previous work, we address the previously open case of static hedging with second-period maturity vanilla…

We study the problem of observational causal inference with continuous treatments in the framework of inverse propensity-score weighting. To obtain stable weights, we design a new algorithm based on entropy balancing that learns weights to…

We consider an autonomous navigation problem, whereby a traveler aims at traversing an environment in which an adversary tries to set an ambush. A two players zero sum game is introduced. Players' strategies are computed as random path…

In this paper, we introduce a new method of sampling from transition densities of diffusion processes including those unknown in closed forms by solving a partial differential equation satisfied by the quotient of transition densities. We…

We use the abstract method of (local) martingale problems in order to give criteria for convergence of stochastic processes. Extending previous notions, the formulation we use is neither restricted to Markov processes (or semimartingales),…

In this paper an exact rejection algorithm for simulating paths of the coupled Wright-Fisher diffusion is introduced. The coupled Wright-Fisher diffusion is a family of multidimensional Wright-Fisher diffusions that have drifts depending on…

We consider the problem of finding a real valued martingale fitting specified marginal distributions. For this to be possible, the marginals must be increasing in the convex order and have constant mean. We show that, under the extra…

We study the inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) problem under a transition dynamics mismatch between the expert and the learner. Specifically, we consider the Maximum Causal Entropy (MCE) IRL learner model and provide a tight upper bound…

In this paper, we first establish a weak unique continuation property for time-fractional diffusion-advection equations. The proof is mainly based on the Laplace transform and the unique continuation properties for elliptic and parabolic…

We consider a multimarginal optimal transport, which includes as a particular case the Wasserstein barycenter problem. In this problem one has to find an optimal coupling between $m$ probability measures, which amounts to finding a tensor…

Mixture models are an expressive hypothesis class that can approximate a rich set of policies. However, using mixture policies in the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) framework is not straightforward. The entropy of a mixture model is not equal to…