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Satellite and ground-based observations are used to explore the composite oceanic - atmospheric link known as the El Ni\~no/La Ni\~na Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which is closely associated with extreme weather events (e.g. heat…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-08-22 Costas A. Varotsos , Arthur P. Cracknell

Complex network theory provides a powerful toolbox for studying the structure of statistical interrelationships between multiple time series in various scientific disciplines. In this work, we apply the recently proposed climate network…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-11-26 Alexander Radebach , Reik V. Donner , Jakob Runge , Jonathan F. Donges , Jürgen Kurths

An information-theoretic framework is developed to assess the predictability of ENSO complexity, which is a central problem in contemporary meteorology with large societal impacts. The information theory advances a unique way to quantify…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-04-05 Xianghui Fang , Nan Chen

The skill of the statistical as well as physics-based coupled climate models in predicting the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is limited by their inability to represent the observed ENSO nonlinearity. A promising alternative, namely…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-09-11 Shivsai Ajit Dixit , B N Goswami

El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most predominant interannual variability in the tropics, significantly impacting global weather and climate. In this paper, a framework of low-order conceptual models for the ENSO is…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-08-09 Nan Chen , Yinling Zhang

This paper proposes a novel framework for enhancing the prediction accuracy and lead time of El Ni\~no events, crucial for mitigating their global climatic, economic, and societal impacts. Traditional prediction models often rely on oceanic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Viet Trinh , Ha-Vy Luu , Quoc-Khiem Nguyen-Pham , Hung Tong , Thanh-Huyen Tran , Hoai-Nam Nguyen Dang

The El Ni{~n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts profound influence on global climate variability, yet its prediction remains a grand challenge. Recent advances in deep learning have significantly improved forecasting skill, but the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Yanhai Gan , Yipeng Chen , Ning Li , Xingguo Liu , Junyu Dong , Xianyao Chen

El Ni\~{n}o is a typical example of a coupled atmosphere--ocean phenomenon, but it is unclear whether it can be described quantitatively by a correlation between relevant climate events. To provide clarity on this issue, we developed a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-02-14 Nozomi Sugiura , Shinya Kouketsu

The quantification of the interannual component of variability in climatological time series is essential for the assessment and prediction of the El Ni\~{n}o - Southern Oscillation phenomenon. This is achieved by estimating the deviation…

Applications · Statistics 2025-11-14 Tommaso Proietti , Alessandro Giovannelli

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a semi-periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean that influences interannual variability in regional hydrology across the world…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-01-24 Yumin Liu , Kate Duffy , Jennifer G. Dy , Auroop R. Ganguly

Recent work has provided ample evidence that global climate dynamics at time-scales between multiple weeks and several years can be severely affected by the episodic occurrence of both, internal (climatic) and external (non-climatic)…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-11-15 Tim Kittel , Catrin Ciemer , Nastaran Lotfi , Thomas Peron , Francisco Rodrigues , Jürgen Kurths , Reik V. Donner

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic sector, influencing temperature and precipitation across Europe. While the NAO's impact on North Atlantic sea surface temperatures…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-18 Elena Provenzano , Guillaume Gastineau , Carlos Mejia , Didier Swingedouw , Sylvie Thiria

Recent studies have shown that deep learning (DL) models can skillfully predict the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts over 1.5 years ahead. However, concerns regarding the reliability of predictions made by DL methods persist,…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-12-19 Pumeng Lyu , Tao Tang , Fenghua Ling , Jing-Jia Luo , Niklas Boers , Wanli Ouyang , Lei Bai

The Earth's climate system is a classical example of a multiscale, multiphysics dynamical system with an extremely large number of active degrees of freedom, exhibiting variability on scales ranging from micrometers and seconds in cloud…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-01-19 Gary Froyland , Dimitrios Giannakis , Benjamin Lintner , Maxwell Pike , Joanna Slawinska

We construct directed and weighted climate networks based on near surface air temperature to investigate the global impacts of El Nino and La Nina. We find that regions which are characterized by higher positive or negative network in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-09-05 Jingfang Fan , Jun Meng , Yosef Ashkenazy , Shlomo Havlin

While deep-learning models have demonstrated skillful El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts up to one year in advance, they are predominantly trained on climate model simulations that provide thousands of years of training data at…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-29 Jakob Schloer , Matthew Newman , Jannik Thuemmel , Antonietta Capotondi , Bedartha Goswami

El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diversity is characterized based on the longitudinal location of maximum sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and amplitude in the tropical Pacific, as Central Pacific (CP) events are typically…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-05-15 Jakob Schlör , Felix Strnad , Antonietta Capotondi , Bedartha Goswami

El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the Earth's strongest source of interannual climate variability. Although its center of action is in the tropical Pacific, it has significant influences on the climate at the planetary scale. ENSO is…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-05 Gian Luca Eusebi Borzelli , Cosimo Enrico Carniel , Sandro Carniel , Mauro Sclavo

The main objective of this article is to establish a new mechanism of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as a self-organizing and self-excitation system, with two highly coupled processes. The first is the oscillation between the two…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2010-05-14 Tian Ma , Shouhong Wang

Although anomalous episodical warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific, dubbed El Ni\~no by Peruvian fishermen, has major (and occasionally devastating) impacts around the globe, robust forecasting is still limited to about six months…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-06-15 Josef Ludescher , Avi Gozolchiani , Mikhail I. Bogachev , Armin Bunde , Shlomo Havlin , Hans Joachim Schellnhuber