English
Related papers

Related papers: Testing For Distribution Shifts with Conditional C…

200 papers

Unsupervised tabular anomaly detection methods typically learn feature patterns from normal samples during training and subsequently identify samples that deviate from these patterns as anomalies during testing. However, in practical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Wei Huang , Hezhe Qiao , Kailai Zhang , Zaisheng Ye , Yu-Ming Shang , Xiangling Fu

We study the problem of quickest detection of a change in the mean of an observation sequence, under the assumption that both the pre- and post-change distributions have bounded support. We first study the case where the pre-change…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-01-15 Yuchen Liang , Venugopal V. Veeravalli

Compositional generalization is a crucial step towards developing data-efficient intelligent machines that generalize in human-like ways. In this work, we tackle a challenging form of distribution shift, termed compositional shift, where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-14 Divyat Mahajan , Mohammad Pezeshki , Charles Arnal , Ioannis Mitliagkas , Kartik Ahuja , Pascal Vincent

As artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning (ML) gain widespread adoption, practitioners are increasingly seeking means to quantify and control the risk these systems incur. This challenge is especially salient when such systems have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-06 Drew Prinster , Samuel Stanton , Anqi Liu , Suchi Saria

Conformal prediction is a powerful post-hoc framework for uncertainty quantification that provides distribution-free coverage guarantees. However, these guarantees crucially rely on the assumption of exchangeability. This assumption is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-18 M. Stocker , W. Małgorzewicz , M. Fontana , S. Ben Taieb

We present a novel approach for test-time adaptation via online self-training, consisting of two components. First, we introduce a statistical framework that detects distribution shifts in the classifier's entropy values obtained on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-07 Yarin Bar , Shalev Shaer , Yaniv Romano

The work [8] established memory loss in the time-dependent (non-random) case of uniformly expanding maps of the interval. Here we find conditions under which we have convergence to the normal distribution of the appropriately scaled…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2016-03-25 Peter Nandori , Domokos Szasz , Tamas Varju

Although precision and recall are standard performance measures for anomaly detection, their statistical properties in sequential detection settings are poorly understood. In this work, we formalize a notion of precision and recall with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-14 Erik Scharwächter , Emmanuel Müller

In this paper we introduce the concept of conic martingales}. This class refers to stochastic processes having the martingale property, but that evolve within given (possibly time-dependent) boundaries. We first review some results about…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-25 Frédéric Vrins , Monique Jeanblanc

Conditional independence tests are crucial across various disciplines in determining the independence of an outcome variable $Y$ from a treatment variable $X$, conditioning on a set of confounders $Z$. The Conditional Randomization Test…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-30 Bowen Xu , Yiwen Huang , Chuan Hong , Shuangning Li , Molei Liu

Continual Test-Time Adaptation (CTTA) task investigates effective domain adaptation under the scenario of continuous domain shifts during testing time. Due to the utilization of solely unlabeled samples, there exists significant uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-18 Fan Lyu , Kaile Du , Yuyang Li , Hanyu Zhao , Fuyuan Hu , Zhang Zhang , Guangcan Liu , Liang Wang

Data-driven models are becoming essential parts in modern mechanical systems, commonly used to capture the behavior of various equipment and varying environmental characteristics. Despite the advantages of these data-driven models on…

In prior work we have introduced an asymptotic threshold of sufficient randomness for causal inference from observational data. In this paper we extend that prior work in three main ways. First, we show how to empirically estimate a lower…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-07 Brian Knaeble , Braxton Osting , Placede Tshiaba

In industrial settings, surface defects on steel can significantly compromise its service life and elevate potential safety risks. Traditional defect detection methods predominantly rely on manual inspection, which suffers from low…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-25 Cheng Shen , Yuewei Liu

We introduce the Markov Distributional Conformal Prediction (MDCP) method that extends the distributional conformal prediction (previously developed for regression) to the setting of a strictly stationary Markov process. Instead of relying…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Dehao Dai , Kejin Wu , Dimitris N. Politis

We consider the fundamental problem of matching a template to a signal. We do so by M-estimation, which encompasses procedures that are robust to gross errors (i.e., outliers). Using standard results from empirical process theory, we derive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-10 Ery Arias-Castro , Lin Zheng

We establish a practical and easy-to-implement sequential stopping rule for the martingale central limit theorem, focusing on Monte Carlo methods for estimating the mean of a non-iid sequence of martingale difference type. Starting with an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-24 Jiezhong Wu , Reiichiro Kawai

Distribution shifts between training and test data are inevitable over the lifecycle of a deployed model, leading to performance decay. Adapting a model on test samples can help mitigate this drop in performance. However, most test-time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Mona Schirmer , Dan Zhang , Eric Nalisnick

We investigate the almost sure asymptotic properties of vector martingale transforms. Assuming some appropriate regularity conditions both on the increasing process and on the moments of the martingale, we prove that normalized moments of…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-12-05 Bernard Bercu , Peggy Cénac , Guy Fayolle

The contamination detection problem aims to determine whether a set of observations has been contaminated, i.e. whether it contains points drawn from a distribution different from the reference distribution. Here, we consider a supervised…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-10 Solenne Gaucher , Gilles Blanchard , Frédéric Chazal