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Existing evaluations of conformal prediction, such as prediction efficiency and test-conditional coverage, are defined in expectation over the calibration data. In practice, when only one calibration set of limited size is available,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-05 Yinjie Min , Liuhua Peng , Changliang Zou

Conventional frequentist learning is known to yield poorly calibrated models that fail to reliably quantify the uncertainty of their decisions. Bayesian learning can improve calibration, but formal guarantees apply only under restrictive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-07 Sangwoo Park , Kfir M. Cohen , Osvaldo Simeone

This study introduces a significance testing-enhanced conformal prediction (CP) framework to improve trustworthiness of large language models (LLMs) in multiple-choice question answering (MCQA). While LLMs have been increasingly deployed in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-15 Yuanchang Ye

Uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying machine learning models in high-stakes domains such as scientific discovery and healthcare. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides finite-sample coverage guarantees under exchangeability, an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Siddhartha Laghuvarapu , Rohan Deb , Jimeng Sun

Precise estimation of predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks is a critical requirement for reliable decision-making in machine learning and statistical modeling, particularly in the context of medical AI. Conformal Prediction (CP)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-05 Hamed Karimi , Reza Samavi

Conformal Prediction is a robust framework that ensures reliable coverage across machine learning tasks. Although recent studies have applied conformal prediction to graph neural networks, they have largely emphasized post-hoc prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Yuntian He , Pranav Maneriker , Anutam Srinivasan , Aditya T. Vadlamani , Srinivasan Parthasarathy

Conformal prediction provides model-agnostic and distribution-free uncertainty quantification through prediction sets that are guaranteed to include the ground truth with any user-specified probability. Yet, conformal prediction is not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Yan Scholten , Stephan Günnemann

Graphs play a crucial role in data mining and machine learning, representing real-world objects and interactions. As graph datasets grow, managing large, decentralized subgraphs becomes essential, particularly within federated learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-21 Ömer Faruk Akgül , Rajgopal Kannan , Viktor Prasanna

Scene Graph Generation (SGG) aims to represent visual scenes by identifying objects and their pairwise relationships, providing a structured understanding of image content. However, inherent challenges like long-tailed class distributions…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-04-14 Sayak Nag , Udita Ghosh , Calvin-Khang Ta , Sarosij Bose , Jiachen Li , Amit K Roy Chowdhury

Conformal prediction is a framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets for previously unseen data, guaranteeing coverage of the true label with a specified probability. However, the efficiency of these prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

A cryptographic protocol (CP) is a distributed algorithm designed to provide a secure communication in an insecure environment. CPs are used, for example, in electronic payments, electronic voting procedures, database access systems, etc.…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2020-11-25 A. M. Mironov

The rapid advancement of large language models has raised significant concerns regarding their potential misuse by malicious actors. As a result, developing effective detectors to mitigate these risks has become a critical priority.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-15 Xiaowei Zhu , Yubing Ren , Yanan Cao , Xixun Lin , Fang Fang , Yangxi Li

Conformal prediction provides rigorous distribution-free finite-sample guarantees for marginal coverage under the assumption of exchangeability, but may exhibit systematic undercoverage or overcoverage for specific subpopulations. Assessing…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-24 Zheng Zhou , Xiangfei Zhang , Chongguang Tao , Yuhong Yang

Large language models (LLMs) are empowering decision-making in several applications, including tool or API usage and answering multiple-choice questions (MCQs). However, incorrect outputs pose significant risks in high-stakes domains like…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-15 Harit Vishwakarma , Alan Mishler , Thomas Cook , Niccolò Dalmasso , Natraj Raman , Sumitra Ganesh

Passive operating system fingerprinting reveals valuable information to the defenders of heterogeneous private networks; at the same time, attackers can use fingerprinting to reconnoiter networks, so defenders need obfuscation techniques to…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2017-06-27 Blake Anderson , David McGrew

Conformal prediction (CP) was developed to provide finite-sample probabilistic prediction guarantees. While CP algorithms are a relatively general-purpose approach to uncertainty quantification, with finite-sample guarantees, they lack…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-08 Jonathan P Williams

We introduce a framework for robust uncertainty quantification in situations where labeled training data are corrupted, through noisy or missing labels. We build on conformal prediction, a statistical tool for generating prediction sets…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Shai Feldman , Stephen Bates , Yaniv Romano

Conformal prediction is a learning framework controlling prediction coverage of prediction sets, which can be built on any learning algorithm for point prediction. This work proposes a learning framework named conformal loss-controlling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Di Wang , Ping Wang , Zhong Ji , Xiaojun Yang , Hongyue Li

In this paper we apply Conformal Prediction (CP) to the k-Nearest Neighbours Regression (k-NNR) algorithm and propose ways of extending the typical nonconformity measure used for regression so far. Unlike traditional regression methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-01-17 Harris Papadopoulos , Vladimir Vovk , Alex Gammerman

In predictive modeling for high-stake decision-making, predictors must be not only accurate but also reliable. Conformal prediction (CP) is a promising approach for obtaining the confidence of prediction results with fewer theoretical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-02 Diptesh Das , Eugene Ndiaye , Ichiro Takeuchi