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One of the most prominent climate tipping elements is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which can potentially collapse due to the input of fresh water in the North Atlantic. Although AMOC collapses have been induced in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-08-04 René M. van Westen , Michael Kliphuis , Henk A. Dijkstra

A statistical indicator for dynamic stability known as the $\Upsilon$ indicator is used to gauge the stability and hence detect approaching tipping points of simulation data from a reduced 5-box model of the North-Atlantic Meridional…

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) is a crucial part of the climate system because of its associated northward heat transport. The present-day MOC is sensitive to freshwater anomalies and may collapse to a state with a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-06-19 Qing Yi Feng , Jan P. Viebahn , Henk A. Dijkstra

Climate variability on centennial timescales has often been linked to internal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, due to the scarceness of suitable paleoclimate proxies and long climate model…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-30 Oliver Mehling , Katinka Bellomo , Jost von Hardenberg

Key components of the Earth system can undergo abrupt and potentially irreversible transitions when the magnitude or rate of external forcing exceeds critical thresholds. In this study, we use the example of the Atlantic Meridional…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Wenjie Zhang , Yu Huang , Sebastian Bathiany , Yechul Shin , Maya Ben-Yami , Suiping Zhou , Niklas Boers

The Global Overturning Circulation (GOC) is a key component of the climate system, transporting heat, carbon, and salt throughout the global ocean. Previous reduced-dimensional models have sought to represent this three-dimensional…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-23 Elian Vanderborght , Henk A. Dijkstra

The Atlantic surface currents associated with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) play a central role in regulating Earth's climate, yet their large scale dynamical response to climate variability remains poorly…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-14 Han Huang , Ningning Tao , Hongyu Wang , Teng Liu , Fei Xie , Xichen Li , Yongwen Zhang , Niklas Boers , Jingfang Fan , Deliang Chen , Xiaosong Chen

The current configuration of the ocean overturning involves upwelling predominantly in the Southern Ocean and sinking predominantly in the Atlantic basin. The reasons for this remain unclear, as both models and paleoclimatic observations…

Projections from global climate models reveal a significant inter-model spread in future rainfall changes in the tropical Atlantic by the end of the 21st century, including alterations to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-12-02 Giada Cerato , Katinka Bellomo , Roberta D Agostino , Jost von Hardenberg

We investigate ocean circulation changes through the lens of data assimilation using a reduced-order model. Our primary interest lies in the Stommel box model which reveals itself to be one of the most practicable models that has the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-09-17 Nathaniel Smith , Anvaya Shiney-Ajay , Emmanuel Fleurantin , Ivo Pasmans

Paleoclimate proxy records and models suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can transition abruptly between a strong and a weak state. Empirical warning signals in observational fingerprints indeed suggest a…

A thorough analysis of the stability of a coupled version of an inter-hemispheric 3-box model of Thermohaline Circulation (THC) is presented. This study follows a similarly structured analysis on an uncoupled version of the same model…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2009-11-10 Valerio Lucarini , Peter H. Stone

A box model of the inter-hemispheric Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is developed, including a variable pycnocline depth for the tropical and subtropical regions. The circulation is forced by winds over a periodic channel in the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2012-11-07 Andrea A. Cimatoribus , Sybren S. Drijfhout , Henk A. Dijkstra

Observations from the RAPID array near 26.5$^\circ$N indicate a linear decline in the AMOC over the past two decades, linked to contrasting boundary changes: a weakening western boundary contribution partly compensated by strengthening at…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-29 Qianjiang Xing , Shane Elipot , William E. Johns , Bablu Sinha , Jules Kajtar , Adam T. Blaker , Tillys Petit , Ben I. Moat , David A. Smeed

Varying one of the governing parameters of a dynamical system may lead to a critical transition, where the new stable state is undesirable. In some cases, there is only a limited range of the bifurcation parameter that corresponds to that…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2018-11-27 Giacomo Bonciolini , Nicolas Noiray

Vertical motions across the ocean are central to processes, like CO$_2$ fixation, heat removal or pollutant transport, which are essential to the Earth's climate. This work explores 3D conveyor routes {associated with} the Atlantic…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-12-24 Renzo Bruera , Jezabel Curbelo , Guillermo Garcia-Sanchez , Ana M. Mancho

There is strong evidence that the present-day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is in a bi-stable regime and hence it is important to determine probabilities and pathways for noise-induced transitions between its…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-08-27 Jelle Soons , Tobias Grafke , Henk A. Dijkstra

We reconsider the problem of the stability of the thermohaline circulation as described by a two-dimensional Boussinesq model with mixed boundary conditions. We determine how the stability properties of the system depend on the intensity of…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2009-11-10 Valerio Lucarini , Sandro Calmanti , Vincenzo Artale

We study the macroscopic profiles of temperature and angular momentum in the stationary state of chains of rotors under a thermo-mechanical forcing applied at the boundaries. These profiles are solutions of a system of diffusive partial…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-07-07 Alessandra Iacobucci , Stefano Olla , Gabriel Stoltz

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and polar ice sheets are coupled tipping elements, allowing for potential cascading tipping events in which tipping is facilitated by their mutual interactions. However, while an AMOC…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-02-25 Sacha Sinet , Anna S. von der Heydt , Henk A. Dijkstra