Related papers: A New Look at Bayesian Testing
We develop a unified framework for goodness-of-fit (GOF) testing through the lens of Bayes risk. Classical GOF procedures are commonly calibrated either at fixed significance level (CLT scale) or through exponential error exponents (LDP…
Bayesian classification labels observations based on given prior information, namely class-a priori and class-conditional probabilities. Bayes' risk is the minimum expected classification cost that is achieved by the Bayes' test, the…
A general class of Bayesian lower bounds when the underlying loss function is a Bregman divergence is demonstrated. This class can be considered as an extension of the Weinstein--Weiss family of bounds for the mean squared error and relies…
The Bayesian Cram\'er-Rao bound (CRB) provides a lower bound on the mean square error of any Bayesian estimator under mild regularity conditions. It can be used to benchmark the performance of statistical estimators, and provides a…
We consider the classical problems of estimating the mean of an $n$-dimensional normally (with identity covariance matrix) or Poisson distributed vector under the squared loss. In a Bayesian setting the optimal estimator is given by the…
In the sparse normal means model, convergence of the Bayesian posterior distribution associated to spike and slab prior distributions is considered. The key sparsity hyperparameter is calibrated via marginal maximum likelihood empirical…
Bayes' Theorem confers inherent limitations on the accuracy of screening tests as a function of disease prevalence. We have shown in previous work that a testing system can tolerate significant drops in prevalence, up until a certain…
We revisit the problem of simultaneously testing the means of $n$ independent normal observations under sparsity. We take a Bayesian approach to this problem by introducing a scale-mixture prior known as the normal-beta prime (NBP) prior.…
Within a Bayesian decision theoretic framework we investigate some asymptotic optimality properties of a large class of multiple testing rules. A parametric setup is considered, in which observations come from a normal scale mixture model…
We derive an asymptotic lower bound on the Bayes risk when N identical quantum systems whose state depends on a vector of unknown parameters are jointly measured in an arbitrary way and the parameters of interest estimated on the basis of…
Good large sample performance is typically a minimum requirement of any model selection criterion. This article focuses on the consistency property of the Bayes factor, a commonly used model comparison tool, which has experienced a recent…
Bayesian tests on the symmetry of the generalized von Mises model for planar directions (Gatto and Jammalamadaka, 2007) are introduced. The generalized von Mises distribution is a flexible model that can be axially symmetric or asymmetric,…
Posterior distributions often feature intractable normalizing constants, called marginal likelihoods or evidence, that are useful for model comparison via Bayes factors. This has motivated a number of methods for estimating ratios of…
The Bayes factor, the data-based updating factor of the prior to posterior odds of two hypotheses, is a natural measure of statistical evidence for one hypothesis over the other. We show how Bayes factors can also be used for parameter…
The sample mean is often used to aggregate different unbiased estimates of a parameter, producing a final estimate that is unbiased but possibly high-variance. This paper introduces the Bayesian median of means, an aggregation rule that…
The naive importance sampling estimator, based on samples from a single importance density, can be numerically unstable. Instead, we consider generalized importance sampling estimators where samples from more than one probability…
This paper provides a general technique for lower bounding the Bayes risk of statistical estimation, applicable to arbitrary loss functions and arbitrary prior distributions. A lower bound on the Bayes risk not only serves as a lower bound…
Data-driven risk analysis involves the inference of probability distributions from measured or simulated data. In the case of a highly reliable system, such as the electricity grid, the amount of relevant data is often exceedingly limited,…
In regular statistical models, the leave-one-out cross-validation is asymptotically equivalent to the Akaike information criterion. However, since many learning machines are singular statistical models, the asymptotic behavior of the…
Bayes factors for composite hypotheses have difficulty in encoding vague prior knowledge, as improper priors cannot be used and objective priors may be subjectively unreasonable. To address these issues I revisit the posterior Bayes factor,…