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We consider a time-varying first-order autoregressive model with irregular innovations, where we assume that the coefficient function is H\"{o}lder continuous. To estimate this function, we use a quasi-maximum likelihood based approach. A…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-28 Hanna Gruber , Moritz Jirak

Classic estimation methods for Hawkes processes rely on the assumption that observed event times are indeed a realisation of a Hawkes process, without considering any potential perturbation of the model. However, in practice, observations…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-21 Anna Bonnet , Felix Cheysson , Miguel Martinez Herrera , Maxime Sangnier

We study the asymptotic properties of the solutions of a nonlinear renewal equation. The main contribution of the present article is to provide stability and convergence results around equilibrium solutions, under some local subcritical…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-12-17 Céline Duval , Eric Luçon

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties. Hawkes process has been widely applied in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-05 Fuqing Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

We introduce a model for limit order book of a certain security with two main features: First, both the limit orders and market orders for the given asset are allowed to appear and interact with each other. Second, the high frequency…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2024-12-24 Yun Chen-Shue , Yukun Li , Jiongmin Yong

The Hawkes process models self-exciting event streams, requiring a strictly non-negative and stable stochastic intensity. Standard identification methods enforce these properties using non-negative causal bases, yielding conservative…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-19 Xinhui Rong , Girish N. Nair

The analysis of high-frequency financial data is often impeded by the presence of noise. This article is motivated by intraday return data in which market microstructure noise appears to be rough, that is, best captured by a continuous-time…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-12 Carsten H. Chong , Thomas Delerue , Guoying Li

In this work, several convergence results are established for nearly critical self-excited systems in which event arrivals are described by multivariate marked Hawkes point processes. Under some mild high-frequency assumptions, the rescaled…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-31 Wei Xu

The Hawkes self-excited point process provides an efficient representation of the bursty intermittent dynamics of many physical, biological, geological and economic systems. By expressing the probability for the next event per unit time…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-09-23 Kiyoshi Kanazawa , Didier Sornette

Constraint based causal structure learning for point processes require empirical tests of local independence. Existing tests require strong model assumptions, e.g. that the true data generating model is a Hawkes process with no latent…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-26 Nikolaj Thams , Niels Richard Hansen

We derive quantitative bounds in the Wasserstein distance for the approximation of stochastic integrals with respect to Hawkes processes by a normally distributed random variable. In the case of deterministic and non-negative integrands,…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-09 Mahmoud Khabou , Nicolas Privault , Anthony Reveillac

We propose a simulation method for multidimensional Hawkes processes based on superposition theory of point processes. This formulation allows us to design efficient simulations for Hawkes processes with differing exponentially decaying…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-14 Kar Wai Lim , Young Lee , Leif Hanlen , Hongbiao Zhao

Genuinely critical dynamics have been proposed to organize many natural and social systems, yet exact criticality is usually thought to preclude stationarity because the mean activity diverges. I show that this conclusion is not generally…

General Physics · Physics 2026-05-26 Didier Sornette

A Hawkes process model with a time-varying background rate is developed for analyzing the high-frequency financial data. In our model, the logarithm of the background rate is modeled by a linear model with a relatively large number of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-07-24 Takahiro Omi , Yoshito Hirata , Kazuyuki Aihara

We obtain general weak existence and stability results for stochastic convolution equations with jumps under mild regularity assumptions, allowing for non-Lipschitz coefficients and singular kernels. Our approach relies on weak convergence…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-22 Eduardo Abi Jaber , Christa Cuchiero , Martin Larsson , Sergio Pulido

We study how to construct a stochastic process on a finite interval with given `roughness' and finite joint moments of marginal distributions. We first extend Ciesielski's isomorphism along a general sequence of partitions, and provide a…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-28 Erhan Bayraktar , Purba Das , Donghan Kim

The dynamics of hexagon patterns in rotating systems are investigated within the framework of modified Swift-Hohenberg equations that can be considered as simple models for rotating convection with broken up-down symmetry, e.g.…

patt-sol · Physics 2007-05-23 Filip Sain , Hermann Riecke

In this paper, we establish a large deviations principle for a multivariate compound process induced by a multivariate Hawkes process with random marks. Our proof hinges on showing essential smoothness of the limiting cumulant of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-29 Raviar S. Karim , Roger J. A. Laeven , Michel R. H. Mandjes

The Heston stochastic volatility model is a standard model for valuing financial derivatives, since it can be calibrated using semi-analytical formulas and captures the most basic structure of the market for financial derivatives with…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2019-01-29 Daniel Guterding , Wolfram Boenkost

We study hysteresis for a two-dimensional, spin-1/2, nearest-neighbor, kinetic Ising ferromagnet in an oscillating field, using Monte Carlo simulations and analytical theory. Attention is focused on small systems and weak field amplitudes…

Materials Science · Physics 2009-10-30 S. W. Sides , P. A. Rikvold , M. A. Novotny