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Inferring the heterogeneous treatment effect is a fundamental problem in the sciences and commercial applications. In this paper, we focus on estimating Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE), that is, the difference in the conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-23 Haomiao Meng , Xingye Qiao

Encountering shifted data at test time is a ubiquitous challenge when deploying predictive models. Test-time adaptation (TTA) methods address this issue by continuously adapting a deployed model using only unlabeled test data. While TTA can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Mona Schirmer , Metod Jazbec , Christian A. Naesseth , Eric Nalisnick

Randomized experiments are the gold standard for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE). While covariate adjustment can reduce the asymptotic variances of the unbiased Horvitz-Thompson estimators for the ATE, it suffers from…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-22 Xin Lu , Lei Shi , Hanzhong Liu , Peng Ding

In performative prediction, the deployment of a predictive model triggers a shift in the data distribution. As these shifts are typically unknown ahead of time, the learner needs to deploy a model to get feedback about the distribution it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Meena Jagadeesan , Tijana Zrnic , Celestine Mendler-Dünner

Regression prediction plays a crucial role in practical applications and strongly relies on data annotation. However, due to prohibitive annotation costs or domain-specific constraints, labeled data in the target domain is often scarce,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-25 Bingbing Wang , Jiaqi Wang , Yu Tang

In causal inference, a fundamental task is to estimate the effect resulting from a specific treatment, which is often handled with inverse probability weighting. Despite an abundance of attention to the advancement of this task, most…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-30 Kuan-Hsun Wu

Robust estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects is a fundamental challenge for optimal decision-making in domains ranging from personalized medicine to educational policy. In recent years, predictive machine learning has emerged as a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-23 Maximilian Schuessler , Erik Sverdrup , Robert Tibshirani

Detecting drifts in data is essential for machine learning applications, as changes in the statistics of processed data typically has a profound influence on the performance of trained models. Most of the available drift detection methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Andrea Castellani , Sebastian Schmitt , Barbara Hammer

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for evaluating causal effects but are often costly and difficult to scale; consequently, they are frequently augmented with auxiliary external controls in many applications. Prior…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-28 Jiawei Shan , Yiteng Tu , Guanbo Wang , Chao Ying , Jiwei Zhao

Unsupervised Domain Adaptation aims to learn a model on a source domain with labeled data in order to perform well on unlabeled data of a target domain. Current approaches focus on learning \textit{Domain Invariant Representations}. It…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-30 Victor Bouvier , Philippe Very , Céline Hudelot , Clément Chastagnol

Enhancing the performance of trajectory planners for lane - changing vehicles is one of the key challenges in autonomous driving within human - machine mixed traffic. Most existing studies have not incorporated human drivers' prior…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-12-23 Cailin Lei , Haiyang Wu , Yuxiong Ji , Xiaoyu Cai , Yuchuan Du

Many training data attribution (TDA) methods aim to estimate how a model's behavior would change if one or more data points were removed from the training set. Methods based on implicit differentiation, such as influence functions, can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-22 Juhan Bae , Wu Lin , Jonathan Lorraine , Roger Grosse

Trajectory prediction models that can infer both finite future trajectories and their associated uncertainties of the target vehicles in an online setting (e.g., real-world application scenarios) is crucial for ensuring the safe and robust…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-05 Huiqun Huang , Sihong He , Fei Miao

The triple-differences (TD) design is a popular identification strategy for causal effects in settings where researchers do not believe the parallel trends assumption of conventional difference-in-differences (DiD) is satisfied. TD designs…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-11 Anton Strezhnev

This paper focuses on the estimation of distributional treatment effects in randomized experiments that use covariate-adaptive randomization (CAR). These include designs such as Efron's biased-coin design and stratified block randomization,…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-09 Undral Byambadalai , Tomu Hirata , Tatsushi Oka , Shota Yasui

To apply reinforcement learning to safety-critical applications, we ought to provide safety guarantees during both policy training and deployment. In this work, we present theoretical results that place a bound on the probability of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-24 Jacques Cloete , Nikolaus Vertovec , Alessandro Abate

Inferring individualised treatment effects from observational data can unlock the potential for targeted interventions. It is, however, hard to infer these effects from observational data. One major problem that can arise is covariate shift…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-25 Damian Machlanski , Spyros Samothrakis , Paul Clarke

Many existing approaches to generalizing statistical inference amidst distribution shift operate under the covariate shift assumption, which posits that the conditional distribution of unobserved variables given observable ones is invariant…

Applications · Statistics 2024-12-13 Ying Jin , Naoki Egami , Dominik Rothenhäusler

In this paper, we focus on estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) of a target population when individual-level data from a source population and summary-level data (e.g., first or second moments of certain covariates) from the target…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-18 Rui Chen , Guanhua Chen , Menggang Yu

Imputing missing values in spatial-temporal traffic data is essential for intelligent transportation systems. Among advanced imputation methods, score-based diffusion models have demonstrated competitive performance. These models generate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-09 Xiaowei Mao , Huihu Ding , Yan Lin , Tingrui Wu , Shengnan Guo , Dazhuo Qiu , Feiling Fang , Jilin Hu , Huaiyu Wan
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