Related papers: Fiscal Dynamics in Japan under Demographic Pressur…
This study develops a statistical model that integrates economic agglomeration theory and power-law distributions of city sizes to project future population distribution on 1-km grid cells. We focus on Japan -- a country at the forefront of…
We develop a Bayesian state-space model for analyzing the dynamic evolution of income distributions using grouped income data. The model combines the generalized beta distribution of the second kind (GB2) with latent time-varying parameters…
Standard macroeconomic frameworks have correctly identified Japan's government debt - now exceeding 240% of GDP - as carrying substantial fiscal risk. Yet FRED data from 2013 to 2026 present an empirical record inviting a complementary…
The evolution of the rate of price inflation and unemployment in Japan has been modeled within the Phillips curve framework. As an extension to the Phillips curve, we represent both variables as linear functions of the change rate of labor…
We consider the relationship between economic activity and intervention, including monetary and fiscal policy, using a universal dynamic framework. Central bank policies are designed for growth without excess inflation. However,…
Do governments adjust budgetary policy to rising public debt, precluding fiscal unsustainability? Using budget data for 52 industrial and emerging economies since 1990, we apply panel methods accounting for cross-sectional dependence and…
Older male workers exhibit diverse retirement behaviors across occupations and respond differently to policy changes, influenced significantly by the part-time penalty-wage reduction faced by part-time workers compared to their full-time…
This paper investigates the barriers to gender convergence using Japan as a salient environment to explore the interactive effects of labor market structures and social norms. I develop a quantitative model of household labor supply where…
In Japan, the increase in the consumption tax rate, a measure of balanced public finance, reduces the inequality of fiscal burden between the present and future generations. This study estimates the effect of grandchildren on an older…
We examine the effects of monetary policy on income inequality in Japan using a novel econometric approach that jointly estimates the Gini coefficient based on micro-level grouped data of households and the dynamics of macroeconomic…
We quantitatively explore the impact of social security reforms in Japan, which is facing rapid aging and the highest government debt among developed countries, using an overlapping generations model with four types of agents distinguished…
Measures of wealth and production have been found to scale superlinearly with the population of a city. Therefore, it makes economic sense for humans to congregate together in dense settlements. A recent model of population dynamics showed…
We analyze the problem of optimal reduction of the debt-to-GDP ratio in a stochastic control setting. The debt-to-GDP dynamics are modeled through a stochastic differential equation in which fiscal policy simultaneously affects both debt…
The sustainability of the academic ecosystem relies on researcher demographics and gender balance, yet assessing these dynamics in a timely manner for policy is challenging. Here, we propose a researcher population pyramid framework for…
Concerns about declining or ageing populations often centre on the fear that fewer people will translate to a weaker economy and lower living standards. But these fears are frequently based on oversimplified or misapplied interpretations of…
The evolution of inflation, p(t), and unemployment, UE(t), in Japan has been modeled. Both variables were represented as linear functions of the change rate of labor force, dLF/LF. These models provide an accurate description of…
This paper investigates how executive demographics particularly age and gender influence artificial intelligence (AI) investment decisions and subsequent firm productivity using comprehensive data from over 500 Japanese enterprises spanning…
We introduce the logistic model of consumption growth, which captures a negative feedback loop preventing an unlimited growth of consumption due to finite biophysical resources of our planet. This simple dynamic model allows for derivation…
This study demonstrates how to construct the solutions of a more general form of population dynamics models via a blend of variational iterative method with Sumudu transform. In this paper, population growth models are formulated in the…
Low total fertility rates throughout the world have lead to concerns about economic growth, military security, international political power, environment impacts, and quality of life. Overall total fertility rates of today's societies are…