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We present a distribution optimization framework that significantly improves confidence bounds for various risk measures compared to previous methods. Our framework encompasses popular risk measures such as the entropic risk measure,…

We present a polynomial-time online algorithm for maximizing the conditional value at risk (CVaR) of a monotone stochastic submodular function. Given $T$ i.i.d. samples from an underlying distribution arriving online, our algorithm produces…

Tail Value-at-Risk (TVaR) is a widely adopted risk measure playing a critically important role in both academic research and industry practice in insurance. In data applications, TVaR is often estimated using the empirical method, owing to…

Value at Risk (VaR) and stress testing are two of the most widely used approaches in portfolio risk management to estimate potential market value losses under adverse market moves. VaR quantifies potential loss in value over a specified…

Systemic risk measures quantify the potential risk to an individual financial constituent arising from the distress of entire financial system. As a generalization of two widely applied risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall,…

Causal discovery from observational data underpins applications in finance, climate modeling, and machine learning. Constraint-based causal discovery reduces structure learning to a sequence of conditional independence (CI) tests, where…

Subspace methods like canonical variate analysis (CVA) are regression based methods for the estimation of linear dynamic state space models. They have been shown to deliver accurate (consistent and asymptotically equivalent to quasi maximum…

Quantum-enhanced (i.e., higher performance by quantum effects than any classical methods) mean value estimation of observables is a fundamental task in various quantum technologies; in particular, it is an essential subroutine in quantum…

We propose a non-asymptotic convergence analysis of a two-step approach to learn a conditional value-at-risk (VaR) and a conditional expected shortfall (ES) using Rademacher bounds, in a non-parametric setup allowing for heavy-tails on the…

Efficient resource allocation is essential for optimizing various tasks in wireless networks, which are usually formulated as generalized assignment problems (GAP). GAP, as a generalized version of the linear sum assignment problem,…

Several authors have recently developed risk-sensitive policy gradient methods that augment the standard expected cost minimization problem with a measure of variability in cost. These studies have focused on specific risk-measures, such as…

Making decisions with respect to just the expected returns in Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) cannot account for the potential range of high-risk, adverse outcomes associated with a decision. To this end, safety-aware MCTS often consider…

Stochastic Analytic Continuation (SAC) of Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) imaginary-time correlation function data is a valuable tool in connecting many-body models to experimentally measurable dynamic response functions. Recent developments of…

Risk measures such as Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) focus on extreme losses, where scarce tail data makes model error unavoidable. To hedge misspecification, one evaluates worst-case tail risk over an ambiguity set. Using Extreme Value…

This paper proposes analytic forms of portfolio CoVaR and CoCVaR on the normal tempered stable market model. Since CoCVaR captures the relative risk of the portfolio with respect to a benchmark return, we apply it to the relative portfolio…

We develop a novel multivariate semi-parametric framework for joint portfolio Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting. Unlike existing univariate semi-parametric approaches, the proposed framework explicitly models the…

Uncertainty modeling has become increasingly important in power system decision-making. The widely-used tractable uncertainty modeling method-chance constraints with Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) approximation, can be overconservative…

Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) is a recently proposed method for constructing prediction intervals for a response $Y$ given covariates $X$, without making distributional assumptions. However, existing constructions of CQR can be…

The autocovariance least squares (ALS) method is a computationally efficient approach for estimating noise covariances in Kalman filters without requiring specific noise models. However, conventional ALS and its variants rely on the classic…

This paper introduces a new extension of the Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk (CAViaR) model aimed at improving tail risk forecasting across assets. The proposed component-based model, CAViaR with Spillover Effects (CAViaR-SE),…