English
Related papers

Related papers: Winner's Curse Drives False Promises in Data-Drive…

200 papers

In many fields of scientific research and real-world applications, unbiased estimation of causal effects from non-experimental data is crucial for understanding the mechanism underlying the data and for decision-making on effective…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu , Thuc Duy Le

We provide an approach to exploratory data analysis in matched observational studies with a single intervention and multiple endpoints. In such settings, the researcher would like to explore evidence for actual treatment effects among these…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-10 Mengqi Lin , Colin Fogarty

How do we learn from biased data? Historical datasets often reflect historical prejudices; sensitive or protected attributes may affect the observed treatments and outcomes. Classification algorithms tasked with predicting outcomes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-04 David Madras , Elliot Creager , Toniann Pitassi , Richard Zemel

Data analysis based on information from several sources is common in economic and biomedical studies. This setting is often referred to as the data fusion problem, which differs from traditional missing data problems since no complete data…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-07 Wei Li , Shanshan Luo , Wangli Xu

Encouraged by decision makers' appetite for future information on topics ranging from elections to pandemics, and enabled by the explosion of data and computational methods, model based forecasts have garnered increasing influence on a…

Applications · Statistics 2022-07-22 Carl Boettiger

Reinforcement learning offers the promise of automating the acquisition of complex behavioral skills. However, compared to commonly used and well-understood supervised learning methods, reinforcement learning algorithms can be brittle,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-01 Aviral Kumar , Xue Bin Peng , Sergey Levine

The decision-making process in real-world implementations has been affected by a growing reliance on data-driven models. We investigated the synergetic pattern between the data-driven methods, empirical domain knowledge, and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-09-22 Xia Chen , Ruiji Sun , Ueli Saluz , Stefano Schiavon , Philipp Geyer

Training data influence estimation methods quantify the contribution of training documents to a model's output, making them a promising source of information for example-based explanations. As humans cannot interpret thousands of documents,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-10 Loris Schoenegger , Benjamin Roth

Causal models bring many benefits to decision-making systems (or agents) by making them interpretable, sample-efficient, and robust to changes in the input distribution. However, spurious correlations can lead to wrong causal models and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-09 Sergei Volodin , Nevan Wichers , Jeremy Nixon

As data-driven predictive models are increasingly used to inform decisions, it has been argued that decision makers should provide explanations that help individuals understand what would have to change for these decisions to be beneficial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-15 Stratis Tsirtsis , Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

Previous research has investigated the potential of refugee matching for boosting refugee outcomes, first considered by Bansak et al. (2018). This paper demonstrates the stability of counterfactual impact evaluation results in the context…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Kirk Bansak , Elisabeth Paulson , Dominik Rothenhäusler , Jeremy Ferwerda , Jens Hainmueller , Michael Hotard

We introduce a constrained priority mechanism that combines outcome-based matching from machine-learning with preference-based allocation schemes common in market design. Using real-world data, we illustrate how our mechanism could be…

General Economics · Economics 2020-08-13 Avidit Acharya , Kirk Bansak , Jens Hainmueller

Accurate prediction of outcomes is crucial for clinical decision-making and personalized patient care. Supervised machine learning algorithms, which are commonly used for outcome prediction in the medical domain, optimize for predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-09 Nithya Bhasker , Fiona R. Kolbinger , Susu Hu , Gitta Kutyniok , Stefanie Speidel

The beneficial effects of treatments vary across individuals in most studies. Treatment heterogeneity motivates practitioners to search for the optimal policy based on personal characteristics. A long-standing common practice in policy…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-06 Xuqiao Li , Ying Yan

Risk assessment algorithms in criminal justice put people's lives at the discretion of a simple statistical tool. This thesis explores how algorithmic decision-making in criminal policy can exhibit feedback effects, where disadvantage…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2020-05-28 Benjamin Laufer

When subjected to automated decision-making, decision subjects may strategically modify their observable features in ways they believe will maximize their chances of receiving a favorable decision. In many practical situations, the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2022-10-10 Keegan Harris , Valerie Chen , Joon Sik Kim , Ameet Talwalkar , Hoda Heidari , Zhiwei Steven Wu

Any probabilistic model of a problem is based on assumptions which, if violated, invalidate the model. Users of probability based decision aids need to be alerted when cases arise that are not covered by the aid's model. Diagnosis of model…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-26 Kathryn Blackmond Laskey

Causal discovery aims to learn causal relationships between variables from targeted data, making it a fundamental task in machine learning. However, causal discovery algorithms often rely on unverifiable causal assumptions, which are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Huiyang Yi , Yanyan He , Duxin Chen , Mingyu Kang , He Wang , Wenwu Yu

Estimating causal effects from observational data informs us about which factors are important in an autonomous system, and enables us to take better decisions. This is important because it has applications in selecting a treatment in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-29 Plabon Shaha , Talha Islam Zadid , Ismat Rahman , Md. Mosaddek Khan

When users can benefit from certain predictive outcomes, they may be prone to act to achieve those outcome, e.g., by strategically modifying their features. The goal in strategic classification is therefore to train predictive models that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-12 Guy Horowitz , Nir Rosenfeld