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Machine-learning models have demonstrated great success in learning complex patterns that enable them to make predictions about unobserved data. In addition to using models for prediction, the ability to interpret what a model has learned…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-15 W. James Murdoch , Chandan Singh , Karl Kumbier , Reza Abbasi-Asl , Bin Yu

Explanations in Machine Learning come in many forms, but a consensus regarding their desired properties is yet to emerge. In this paper we introduce a taxonomy and a set of descriptors that can be used to characterise and systematically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-12 Kacper Sokol , Peter Flach

Feature-based methods are commonly used to explain model predictions, but these methods often implicitly assume that interpretable features are readily available. However, this is often not the case for high-dimensional data, and it can be…

The field of time series forecasting has garnered significant attention in recent years, prompting the development of advanced models like TimeSieve, which demonstrates impressive performance. However, an analysis reveals certain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-31 Songning Lai , Ninghui Feng , Haochen Sui , Ze Ma , Hao Wang , Zichen Song , Hang Zhao , Yutao Yue

Modern time series classifiers display impressive predictive capabilities, yet their decision-making processes mostly remain black boxes to the user. At the same time, model-agnostic explainers, such as the recently proposed SHAP, promise…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-21 Felix Mujkanovic , Vanja Doskoč , Martin Schirneck , Patrick Schäfer , Tobias Friedrich

Models often need to be constrained to a certain size for them to be considered interpretable. For example, a decision tree of depth 5 is much easier to understand than one of depth 50. Limiting model size, however, often reduces accuracy.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-02 Abhishek Ghose , Balaraman Ravindran

There is a growing concern about typically opaque decision-making with high-performance machine learning algorithms. Providing an explanation of the reasoning process in domain-specific terms can be crucial for adoption in risk-sensitive…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-11-28 Aditya Chattopadhyay , Stewart Slocum , Benjamin D. Haeffele , Rene Vidal , Donald Geman

The anomaly detection of time series is a hotspot of time series data mining. The own characteristics of different anomaly detectors determine the abnormal data that they are good at. There is no detector can be optimizing in all types of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-19 Hui Ye , Xiaopeng Ma , Qingfeng Pan , Huaqiang Fang , Hang Xiang , Tongzhen Shao

Hierarchical time-series forecasting is essential for demand prediction across various industries. While machine learning models have obtained significant accuracy and scalability on such forecasting tasks, the interpretability of their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-09 Harshavardhan Kamarthi , Shangqing Xu , Xinjie Tong , Xingyu Zhou , James Peters , Joseph Czyzyk , B. Aditya Prakash

Researchers in explainable artificial intelligence have developed numerous methods for helping users understand the predictions of complex supervised learning models. By contrast, explaining the $\textit{uncertainty}$ of model outputs has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-01 David S. Watson , Joshua O'Hara , Niek Tax , Richard Mudd , Ido Guy

Time-series forecasts are essential for planning and decision-making in many domains. Explainability is key to building user trust and meeting transparency requirements. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) is a popular explainable AI…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-24 Matthias Hertel , Sebastian Pütz , Ralf Mikut , Veit Hagenmeyer , Benjamin Schäfer

Multivariate time series forecasting is crucial across various industries, where accurate extraction of complex periodic and trend components can significantly enhance prediction performance. However, existing models often struggle to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-08 Yulong Wang , Yushuo Liu , Xiaoyi Duan , Kai Wang

Predictability estimates of ensemble prediction systems are uncertain due to limited numbers of past forecasts and observations. To account for such uncertainty, this paper proposes a Bayesian inferential framework that provides a simple…

Much of modern practice in financial forecasting relies on technicals, an umbrella term for several heuristics applying visual pattern recognition to price charts. Despite its ubiquity in financial media, the reliability of its signals…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-07-12 Sid Ghoshal , Stephen J. Roberts

Continual learning aims to update models under distribution shift without forgetting, yet many high-stakes deployments, such as healthcare, also require interpretability. In practice, models that adapt well (e.g., deep networks) are often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Dongkyu Cho , Xiyue Li , Samrachana Adhikari , Rumi Chunara

Machine learning solutions for pattern classification problems are nowadays widely deployed in society and industry. However, the lack of transparency and accountability of most accurate models often hinders their safe use. Thus, there is a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-24 Gonzalo Nápoles , Yamisleydi Salgueiro , Isel Grau , Maikel Leon Espinosa

Experimental data is often affected by uncontrolled variables that make analysis and interpretation difficult. For spatiotemporal systems, this problem is further exacerbated by their intricate dynamics. Modern machine learning methods are…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-09-16 Peter Y. Lu , Samuel Kim , Marin Soljačić

A salient approach to interpretable machine learning is to restrict modeling to simple models. In the Bayesian framework, this can be pursued by restricting the model structure and prior to favor interpretable models. Fundamentally,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-08 Homayun Afrabandpey , Tomi Peltola , Juho Piironen , Aki Vehtari , Samuel Kaski

Traditional saliency map methods, popularized in computer vision, highlight individual points (pixels) of the input that contribute the most to the model's output. However, in time series, they offer limited insights, as semantically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Christodoulos Kechris , Jonathan Dan , David Atienza

This paper presents an automated approach for interpretable feature recommendation for solving signal data analytics problems. The method has been tested by performing experiments on datasets in the domain of prognostics where…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-07 Snehasis Banerjee , Tanushyam Chattopadhyay , Ayan Mukherjee