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The applications of artificial intelligence (AI) are rapidly evolving, and they are also commonly used in safety-critical domains, such as autonomous driving and medical diagnosis, where functional safety is paramount. In AI-driven systems,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-12 Soyed Tuhin Ahmed , Michael Hefenbrock , Mehdi B. Tahoori

Predictions of uncertainty-aware models are diverse, ranging from single point estimates (often averaged over prediction samples) to predictive distributions, to set-valued or credal-set representations. We propose a novel unified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Shireen Kudukkil Manchingal , Muhammad Mubashar , Kaizheng Wang , Fabio Cuzzolin

Due to the inherent aleatory uncertainties in renewable generators, the reliability/adequacy assessments of distributed generation (DG) systems have been particularly focused on the probabilistic modeling of random behaviors, given…

Performance · Computer Science 2012-06-07 Yanfu Li , Enrico Zio

Ensemble disagreement is widely used as a proxy for epistemic uncertainty in medical image segmentation. In practice, many studies form ensembles via K-fold cross-validation (CV), yet refer to them as ``deep ensembles'' (DE). Because CV…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Tristan Kirscher , Markus Bujotzek , Yannick Kirchhoff , Maximilian Rokuss , Fabian Isensee , Kim-Celine Kahl , Balint Kovacs , Klaus Maier-Hein

Epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) identifies where models lack knowledge. Traditional UQ methods, often based on Bayesian neural networks, are not suitable for pre-trained non-Bayesian models. Our study addresses quantifying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Hanjing Wang , Qiang Ji

Deep Ensembles, as a type of Bayesian Neural Networks, can be used to estimate uncertainty on the prediction of multiple neural networks by collecting votes from each network and computing the difference in those predictions. In this paper,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-10 Illia Oleksiienko , Alexandros Iosifidis

Developing deep generative models that flexibly incorporate diverse measures of probability distance is an important area of research. Here we develop an unified mathematical framework of f-divergence generative model, f-GM, that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-05-12 Jaime Roquero Gimenez , James Zou

The vast majority of uncertainty quantification methods for deep object detectors such as variational inference are based on the network output. Here, we study gradient-based epistemic uncertainty metrics for deep object detectors to obtain…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-03-21 Tobias Riedlinger , Matthias Rottmann , Marius Schubert , Hanno Gottschalk

We present Epistemic Variational Onsager Diffusion Models (EVODMs), a machine learning framework that integrates Onsager's variational principle with diffusion models to enable thermodynamically consistent learning of free energy and…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-02-18 Zequn He , Celia Reina

The ability to estimate epistemic uncertainty is often crucial when deploying machine learning in the real world, but modern methods often produce overconfident, uncalibrated uncertainty predictions. A common approach to quantify epistemic…

Estimating and disentangling epistemic uncertainty, uncertainty that is reducible with more training data, and aleatoric uncertainty, uncertainty that is inherent to the task at hand, is critically important when applying machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-08 Matthew A. Chan , Maria J. Molina , Christopher A. Metzler

Inexpensive machine learning potentials are increasingly being used to speed up structural optimization and molecular dynamics simulations of materials by iteratively predicting and applying interatomic forces. In these settings, it is…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2023-09-12 Jonas Busk , Mikkel N. Schmidt , Ole Winther , Tejs Vegge , Peter Bjørn Jørgensen

This paper introduces an efficient sub-model ensemble framework aimed at enhancing the interpretability of medical deep learning models, thus increasing their clinical applicability. By generating uncertainty maps, this framework enables…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-11 Weijie Chen , Alan McMillan

Deep neural networks have become the default choice for many of the machine learning tasks such as classification and regression. Dropout, a method commonly used to improve the convergence of deep neural networks, generates an ensemble of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-11 Tal Kachman , Michal Moshkovitz , Michal Rosen-Zvi

Deep learning has been shown to be highly effective for automatic modulation classification (AMC), which is a pivotal technology for next-generation cognitive communications. Yet, existing deep learning methods for AMC often lack robust…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-03 Huian Yang , Rajeev Sahay

The ability to accurately model random fields plays a critical role in science and engineering for problems involving uncertain, spatially-varying quantities such as heterogeneous material properties and turbulent flows. Deep generative…

Deep Ensemble (DE) is an effective alternative to Bayesian neural networks for uncertainty quantification in deep learning. The uncertainty of DE is usually conveyed by the functional inconsistency among the ensemble members, say, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-03 Zhijie Deng , Feng Zhou , Jianfei Chen , Guoqiang Wu , Jun Zhu

In this paper, we present an uncertainty-aware INVASE to quantify predictive confidence of healthcare problem. By introducing learnable Gaussian distributions, we lever-age their variances to measure the degree of uncertainty. Based on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-07 Jia-Xing Zhong , Hongbo Zhang

Uncertain knowledge graph embedding (UnKGE) methods learn vector representations that capture both structural and uncertainty information to predict scores of unseen triples. However, existing methods produce only point estimates, without…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-30 Yuqicheng Zhu , Jingcheng Wu , Yizhen Wang , Hongkuan Zhou , Jiaoyan Chen , Evgeny Kharlamov , Steffen Staab

Standard deep learning methods, such as Ensemble Models, Bayesian Neural Networks and Quantile Regression Models provide estimates to prediction uncertainties for data-driven deep learning models. However, they can be limited in their…