Related papers: Linear Response and Optimal Fingerprinting for Non…
Climate change detection and attribution play a central role in establishing the causal influence of human activities on global warming. The dominant framework, optimal fingerprinting, is a linear errors-in-variables model in which each…
The optimal fingerprint method serves as a potent approach for detecting and attributing climate change. However, its experimental validation encounters challenges due to the intricate nature of climate systems. Here, we experimentally…
Detection and attribution (D&A) studies are cornerstones of climate science, providing crucial evidence for policy decisions. Their goal is to link observed climate change patterns to anthropogenic and natural drivers via the optimal…
The optimal fingerprinting method for detection and attribution of climate change is based on a multiple regression where each covariate has measurement error whose covariance matrix is the same as that of the regression error up to a known…
We provide a review on the "optimal fingerprinting" approach as summarized in Allen and Tett (1999) from a point view of statistical inference in light of the recent criticism of McKitrick (2021). Our review finds that the "optimal…
Linear Response theory aims to predict how added forcing alters the statistical properties of an unforced system. These kinds of questions have been studied predominantly for autonomous dynamical systems, yet many systems in the physical,…
The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere…
The linear response of a dynamical system refers to changes to properties of the system when small external perturbations are applied. We consider the little-studied question of selecting an optimal perturbation so as to (i) maximise the…
The climate belongs to the class of non-equilibrium forced and dissipative systems, for which most results of quasi-equilibrium statistical mechanics, including the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, do not apply. We show for the first time…
Fingerprints are key tools in climate change detection and attribution (D&A) that are used to determine whether changes in observations are different from internal climate variability (detection), and whether observed changes can be…
Contrary to the actual nonlinear Glauber model (NLGM), the linear Glauber model (LGM) is exactly solvable, although the detailed balance condition is not generally satisfied. This motivates us to address the issue of writing the transition…
Changing some of its parameters over time is a paradigmatic way of driving an otherwise isolated many-body quantum system out of equilibrium, and a vital ingredient for building quantum computers and simulators. Here, we further develop a…
Climate models exhibit an approximately invariant surface warming pattern in typical end-of-century projections. This observation has been used extensively in climate impact assessments for fast calculations of local temperature anomalies,…
Fluctuation dissipation theorems connect the linear response of a physical system to a perturbation to the steady-state correlation functions. Until now, most of these theorems have been derived for finite-dimensional systems. However, many…
The theory of nonlinear response for Markov processes obeying a master equation is formulated in terms of time-dependent perturbation theory for the Green's functions and general expressions for the response functions up to third order in…
A theory of temperature dynamics in many-body systems driven by time-dependent external sources is introduced. The formalism based on the combination of the perturbation theory and the fluctuational-electrodynamics approach in many-body…
Inference-time controllable generation is essential for real-world applications of unconditional diffusion models. However, most existing techniques focus on individual samples, struggling in applications that require the sample population…
When the climate system is forced, e.g. by emission of greenhouse gases, it responds on multiple time scales. As temperatures rise, feedback processes might intensify or weaken. Current methods to analyze feedback strength, however, do not…
Decision makers exploiting photonic chaotic dynamics obtained by semiconductor lasers provide an ultrafast approach to solving multi-armed bandit problems by using a temporal optical signal as the driving source for sequential decisions. In…
Klaus Hasselmann's revolutionary intuition in climate science was to take advantage of the stochasticity associated with fast weather processes to probe the slow dynamics of the climate system. This has led to fundamentally new ways to…