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In this paper, we consider contextual stochastic optimization problems under endogenous uncertainty, where decisions affect the underlying distributions. To implement such decisions in practice, it is crucial to ensure that their outcomes…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-16 Jasone Ramírez-Ayerbe , Emma Frejinger

We describe an adaptive context tree weighting (ACTW) algorithm, as an extension to the standard context tree weighting (CTW) algorithm. Unlike the standard CTW algorithm, which weights all observations equally regardless of the depth, ACTW…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2012-01-11 Alexander O'Neill , Marcus Hutter , Wen Shao , Peter Sunehag

We study the scenario approach for solving chance-constrained optimization in time-coupled dynamic environments. Scenario generation methods approximate the true feasible region from scenarios generated independently and identically from…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-04-02 Apurv Shukla , Qian Zhang , Le Xie

This work investigates the challenge of ensuring safety guarantees in the presence of uncontrollable agents, whose behaviors are stochastic and depend on both their own and the system's states. We present a neural model predictive control…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-21 Shuqi Wang , Mingyang Feng , Yu Chen , Yue Gao , Xiang Yin

We study uncertainty quantification for contextual stochastic optimization, focusing on weighted sample average approximation (wSAA), which uses machine-learned relevance weights based on covariates. Although wSAA is widely used for…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-14 Yanyuan Wang , Xiaowei Zhang

In this paper, we present an efficient algorithm for solving a class of chance constrained optimization under non-parametric uncertainty. Our algorithm is built on the possibility of representing arbitrary distributions as functions in…

Robotics · Computer Science 2018-11-26 Bharath Gopalakrishnan , Arun Kumar Singh , K. Madhava Krishna , Dinesh Manocha

Contextual stochastic optimization is an advanced methodology to model uncertainty in the presence of contextual information during decision planning processes. Although classical methodologies focus on minimizing the expectation of a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-11-24 Man Yiu Tsang , Tony Sit , Hoi Ying Wong

We develop Clustered Random Forests, a random forests algorithm for clustered data, arising from independent groups that exhibit within-cluster dependence. The leaf-wise predictions for each decision tree making up clustered random forests…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-26 Elliot H. Young , Peter Bühlmann

Feature selection is a crucial tool in machine learning and is widely applied across various scientific disciplines. Traditional supervised methods generally identify a universal set of informative features for the entire population.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-11 Ram Dyuthi Sristi , Ofir Lindenbaum , Shira Lifshitz , Maria Lavzin , Jackie Schiller , Gal Mishne , Hadas Benisty

Selecting a coherent sequence or subset of elements is a fundamental problem in structured prediction, arising in tasks such as detection, trajectory forecasting, and representative subset selection. In many such settings, the target is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Noam Mizrachi , Nadav Har-Tuv , Shai Shalev-Shwartz

Chance constrained programming (CCP) refers to a type of optimization problem with uncertain constraints that are satisfied with at least a prescribed probability level. In this work, we study the sample average approximation (SAA) of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-04-30 Peng Wang , Rujun Jiang , Qingyuan Kong , Laura Balzano

Real-world data streams can change unpredictably due to distribution shifts, feedback loops and adversarial actors, which challenges the validity of forecasts. We present a forecasting framework ensuring valid uncertainty estimates…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Charles Marx , Volodymyr Kuleshov , Stefano Ermon

Causal inference requires evaluating models on balanced distributions between treatment and control groups, while training data often exhibits imbalance due to historical decision-making policies. Most conventional statistical methods…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-21 Akira Tanimoto

The rapid growth of AI applications is dramatically increasing data center energy demand, exacerbating carbon emissions, and necessitating a shift towards 24/7 carbon-free energy (CFE). Unlike traditional annual energy matching, 24/7 CFE…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-07 Yijie Yang , Jian Shi , Dan Wang , Chenye Wu , Zhu Han

We consider chance-constrained problems with discrete random distribution. We aim for problems with a large number of scenarios. We propose a novel method based on the stochastic gradient descent method which performs updates of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-05-28 Lukáš Adam , Martin Branda

Keeping the balance between supply and demand is a fundamental task in power system operational planning practices. This task becomes particularly challenging due to the deepening penetration of renewable energy resources, which induces a…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-10-24 Xinbo Geng , Le Xie

Traditional end-to-end contextual robust optimization models are trained for specific contextual data, requiring complete retraining whenever new contextual information arrives. This limitation hampers their use in online decision-making…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-20 Carlos Gamboa , Alexandre Street , Davi Valladão , Bernardo Pagnocelli

Distributionally robust chance constrained programs minimize a deterministic cost function subject to the satisfaction of one or more safety conditions with high probability, given that the probability distribution of the uncertain problem…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-11-22 Zhi Chen , Daniel Kuhn , Wolfram Wiesemann

The cluster-weighted model (CWM) is a mixture model with random covariates which allows for flexible clustering and density estimation of a random vector composed by a response variable and by a set of covariates. In this class of models,…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-08-06 Salvatore Ingrassia , Antonio Punzo

In this paper, we develop an exact reformulation and a deterministic approximation for distributionally robust joint chance-constrained programmings (DRCCPs) with a general class of convex uncertain constraints under data-driven Wasserstein…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-09-07 Yining Gu , Yanjun Wang