Related papers: BayesFlow 2: Multi-Backend Amortized Bayesian Infe…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a framework for performing likelihood-free posterior inference for simulation models. Stochastic Variational inference (SVI) is an appealing alternative to the inefficient sampling approaches…
Approximate Bayesian Computation is a family of likelihood-free inference techniques that are well-suited to models defined in terms of a stochastic generating mechanism. In a nutshell, Approximate Bayesian Computation proceeds by computing…
Motivated by big data and the vast parameter spaces in modern machine learning models, optimisation approaches to Bayesian inference have seen a surge in popularity in recent years. In this paper, we address the connection between the…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a popular likelihood-free inference method for models with intractable likelihood functions. As ABC methods usually rely on comparing summary statistics of observed and simulated data, the choice of…
This chapter will appear in the forthcoming Handbook of Approximate Bayesian Computation (2018). Indirect inference (II) is a classical likelihood-free approach that pre-dates the main developments of ABC and relies on simulation from a…
How can one perform Bayesian inference on stochastic simulators with intractable likelihoods? A recent approach is to learn the posterior from adaptively proposed simulations using neural network-based conditional density estimators.…
Material Flow Analysis (MFA) is used to quantify and understand the life cycles of materials from production to end of use, which enables environmental, social and economic impacts and interventions. MFA is challenging as available data is…
One of the core facets of Bayesianism is in the updating of prior beliefs in light of new evidence$\text{ -- }$so how can we maintain a Bayesian approach if we have no prior beliefs in the first place? This is one of the central challenges…
Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables amortized Bayesian inference for simulators with implicit likelihoods. But when we are primarily interested in the quality of predictive simulations, or when the model cannot exactly reproduce the…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a statistical learning technique to calibrate and select models by comparing observed data to simulated data. This technique bypasses the use of the likelihood and requires only the ability to…
The Python package pyABC provides a framework for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), a likelihood-free parameter inference method popular in many research areas. At its core, it implements a sequential Monte-Carlo (SMC) scheme, with…
Averaging predictions from multiple competing inferential models frequently outperforms predictions from any single model, providing that models are optimally weighted to maximize predictive performance. This is particularly the case in…
Deep learning has revolutionized the last decade, being at the forefront of extraordinary advances in a wide range of tasks including computer vision, natural language processing, and reinforcement learning, to name but a few. However, it…
This study proposes the novel Bayesian and inverse Bayesian (BIB) inference framework that incorporates symmetry bias into the Bayesian updating process to perform both conventional and inverse Bayesian updates concurrently. Conventional…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) using a sequential Monte Carlo method provides a comprehensive platform for parameter estimation, model selection and sensitivity analysis in differential equations. However, this method, like other…
We present a novel technique for amortized posterior estimation using Normalizing Flows trained with likelihood-weighted importance sampling. This approach allows for the efficient inference of theoretical parameters in high-dimensional…
Bayesian predictive inference propagates parameter uncertainty to quantities of interest through the posterior-predictive distribution. In practice, this is typically performed using a two-stage procedure: first approximating the posterior…
Neural networks are popular state-of-the-art models for many different tasks.They are often trained via back-propagation to find a value of the weights that correctly predicts the observed data. Although back-propagation has shown good…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a family of computational techniques in Bayesian statistics. These techniques allow to fi t a model to data without relying on the computation of the model likelihood. They instead require to…
Bayesian inference provides an attractive online-learning framework to analyze sequential data, and offers generalization guarantees which hold even with model mismatch and adversaries. Unfortunately, exact Bayesian inference is rarely…