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Recent claims of strong performance by Large Language Models (LLMs) on causal discovery are undermined by a key flaw: many evaluations rely on benchmarks likely included in pretraining corpora. Thus, apparent success suggests that LLM-only…

Text-based financial networks are increasingly used to study cross-stock return predictability. A common approach constructs links from similarities in firms' disclosure embeddings, but such networks often contain spurious edges because…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-28 Yikuan Huang , Zheqi Fan , Kaiqi Hu , Yifan Ye

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in agentic frameworks, in which prompts trigger complex tool-based analysis in pursuit of a goal. While these frameworks have shown promise across multiple domains including in finance,…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-14 Dimitrios Emmanoulopoulos , Ollie Olby , Justin Lyon , Namid R. Stillman

Algorithmic trading requires short-term tactical decisions consistent with long-term financial objectives. Reinforcement Learning (RL) has been applied to such problems, but adoption is limited by myopic behaviour and opaque policies. Large…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Adam Darmanin , Vince Vella

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently been leveraged for asset pricing tasks and stock trading applications, enabling AI agents to generate investment decisions from unstructured financial data. However, most evaluations of LLM…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-26 Weixian Waylon Li , Hyeonjun Kim , Mihai Cucuringu , Tiejun Ma

Purpose: This study introduces a novel framework for identifying and exploiting predictive lead-lag relationships in financial markets. We propose an integrated approach that combines advanced statistical methodologies with machine learning…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-15 Ivan Letteri

This study proposes a novel hybrid deep learning framework that integrates a Large Language Model (LLM) with a Transformer architecture for stock price forecasting. The research addresses a critical theoretical gap in existing approaches…

Large language models (LLMs) fine-tuned on multimodal financial data have demonstrated impressive reasoning capabilities in various financial tasks. However, they often struggle with multi-step, goal-oriented scenarios in interactive…

Large language models are increasingly used to evaluate other models, yet these judgments typically lack any representation of confidence. This pilot study tests whether framing an evaluation task as a betting game (a fictional prediction…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-12-09 Michael Todasco

Large Language Models (LLMs) and causal learning each hold strong potential for clinical decision making (CDM). However, their synergy remains poorly understood, largely due to the lack of systematic benchmarks evaluating their integration…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-14 Linna Wang , Zhixuan You , Qihui Zhang , Jiunan Wen , Ji Shi , Yimin Chen , Yusen Wang , Fanqi Ding , Ziliang Feng , Li Lu

Process Reward Models (PRMs) have emerged as a promising approach to enhance the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) by guiding their step-by-step reasoning toward a final answer. However, existing PRMs either treat each…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Zheng Zhang , Ziwei Shan , Kaitao Song , Yexin Li , Kan Ren

Large Language Models (LLMs) excel at understanding context and qualitative nuances but struggle with the rigorous and transparent reasoning required in high-stakes quantitative domains such as financial trading. We propose a model-first…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-02 Xiaoting Kuang , Boken Lin

Mainstream methods for Legal Judgment Prediction (LJP) based on Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs) heavily rely on the statistical correlation between case facts and judgment results. This paradigm lacks explicit modeling of legal…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Yuzhi Liang , Lixiang Ma , Xinrong Zhu

Event detection and text reasoning have become critical applications across various domains. While LLMs have recently demonstrated impressive progress in reasoning abilities, they often struggle with event detection, particularly due to the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-04 Mazal Bethany , Emet Bethany , Brandon Wherry , Cho-Yu Chiang , Nishant Vishwamitra , Anthony Rios , Peyman Najafirad

As the significance of understanding the cause-and-effect relationships among variables increases in the development of modern systems and algorithms, learning causality from observational data has become a preferred and efficient approach…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-28 Xiaoxuan Li , Yao Liu , Ruoyu Wang , Lina Yao

Dynamic hedging strategies are essential for effective risk management in derivatives markets, where volatility and market sentiment can greatly impact performance. This paper introduces a novel framework that leverages large language…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Jie Yang , Yiqiu Tang , Yongjie Li , Lihua Zhang , Haoran Zhang

Financial sentiment analysis is critical for valuation and investment decision-making. Traditional NLP models, however, are limited by their parameter size and the scope of their training datasets, which hampers their generalization…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-07 Boyu Zhang , Hongyang Yang , Tianyu Zhou , Ali Babar , Xiao-Yang Liu

This study explores the capability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to evaluate causality in causal graphs generated by conventional statistical causal discovery methods-a task traditionally reliant on manual assessment by human subject…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-16 Yuni Susanti , Nina Holsmoelle

This paper investigates whether large language models (LLMs) can improve cross-sectional momentum strategies by extracting predictive signals from firm-specific news. We combine daily U.S. equity returns for S&P 500 constituents with…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-31 Nikolas Anic , Andrea Barbon , Ralf Seiz , Carlo Zarattini

In the constantly changing field of data-driven decision making, accurately predicting future events is crucial for strategic planning in various sectors. The emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs) marks a significant advancement in this…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-01-10 Tommaso Soru , Jim Marshall
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