Related papers: Future-blindness and the product topology
This paper investigates a robust optimal consumption, investment, and reinsurance problem for an insurer with Epstein-Zin recursive preferences operating under model uncertainty. The insurer's surplus follows the diffusion approximation of…
Existential rules have been proposed for representing ontological knowledge, specifically in the context of Ontology- Based Data Access. Entailment with existential rules is undecidable. We focus in this paper on conditions that ensure the…
This paper formulates a model of utility for a continuous time framework that captures the decision-maker's concern with ambiguity about both the drift and volatility of the driving process. At a technical level, the analysis requires a…
Continuous monitoring is becoming more popular due to its significant benefits, including reducing sample sizes and reaching earlier conclusions. In general, it involves monitoring nuisance parameters (e.g., the variance of outcomes) until…
In a dynamic matching market, such as a marriage or job market, how should agents balance accepting a proposed match with the cost of continuing their search? We consider this problem in a discrete setting, in which agents have cardinal…
In this paper we study a rational inattention model in environments where the decision maker faces uncertainty about the true prior distribution over states. The decision maker seeks to select a stochastic choice rule over a finite set of…
In this paper, we study the finite-horizon problem of an economic agent's optimal consumption, investment, and job-switching decisions. The key new feature of our model is that the job-switching cost is time-varying. This extension leads to…
Temporal logics over finite traces have recently seen wide application in a number of areas, from business process modelling, monitoring, and mining to planning and decision making. However, real-life dynamic systems contain a degree of…
We study an optimal stopping problem with an unbounded, time-dependent and discontinuous reward function. This problem is motivated by the pricing of a variable annuity contract with guaranteed minimum maturity benefit, under the assumption…
We assume that an individual invests in a financial market with one riskless and one risky asset, with the latter's price following geometric Brownian motion as in the Black-Scholes model. Under a constant rate of consumption, we find the…
The efficacy of robust optimization spans a variety of settings with uncertainties bounded in predetermined sets. In many applications, uncertainties are affected by decisions and cannot be modeled with current frameworks. This paper takes…
Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological…
Ambiguity-averse decision makers typically dislike not only the presence of ambiguous events but also their increase, contrary to what standard ambiguity models predict. We axiomatically study such a decision maker. She avoids ex ante…
The concordance model of cosmology predicts a universe which finishes in a finite amount of conformal time at a future conformal boundary. We show that for particular cases we study, the background variables and perturbations may be…
This paper describes prediction methods for the number of future events from a population of units associated with an on-going time-to-event process. Examples include the prediction of warranty returns and the prediction of the number of…
Bipartite networks provide an insightful representation of many systems, ranging from mutualistic networks of species interactions to investment networks in finance. The analysis of their topological structures has revealed the ubiquitous…
We establish explicit socially optimal rules for an irreversible investment deci- sion with time-to-build and uncertainty. Assuming a price sensitive demand function with a random intercept, we provide comparative statics and economic…
HCI is future-oriented by nature: it explores new human--technology interactions and applies the findings to promote and shape vital visions of society. Still, the visions of futures in HCI publications seem largely implicit,…
Prediction is arguably one of the most basic functions of an intelligent system. In general, the problem of predicting events in the future or between two waypoints is exceedingly difficult. However, most phenomena naturally pass through…
We give a topological classification of the evolution of entanglement, particularly the different ways the entanglement can disappear. Four categories exhaust all possibilities given the initial quantum state is entangled and the final one…