Related papers: Ergodicity of an Adaptive MCMC Sampler under a Pro…
We prove bounds on the variance of a function $f$ under the empirical measure of the samples obtained by the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm, with time complexity depending on local rather than global Markov chain mixing dynamics.…
A Monte Carlo algorithm is said to be adaptive if it automatically calibrates its current proposal distribution using past simulations. The choice of the parametric family that defines the set of proposal distributions is critical for good…
We study the convergence properties of a collapsed Gibbs sampler for Bayesian vector autoregressions with predictors, or exogenous variables. The Markov chain generated by our algorithm is shown to be geometrically ergodic regardless of…
We study the limit behaviour of upper and lower bounds on expected time averages in imprecise Markov chains; a generalised type of Markov chain where the local dynamics, traditionally characterised by transition probabilities, are now…
The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are popular when considering sampling from a high-dimensional random variable $\mathbf{x}$ with possibly unnormalised probability density $p$ and observed data $\mathbf{d}$. However, MCMC requires…
Adaptive Monte Carlo methods can be viewed as implementations of Markov chains with infinite memory. We derive a general condition for the convergence of a Monte Carlo method whose history dependence is contained within the simulated…
Computing the marginal likelihood or evidence is one of the core challenges in Bayesian analysis. While there are many established methods for estimating this quantity, they predominantly rely on using a large number of posterior samples…
Two popular classes of methods for approximate inference are Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational inference. MCMC tends to be accurate if run for a long enough time, while variational inference tends to give better approximations…
This article studies the convergence properties of trans-dimensional MCMC algorithms when the total number of models is finite. It is shown that, for reversible and some non-reversible trans-dimensional Markov chains, under mild conditions,…
Practitioners of Bayesian statistics have long depended on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to obtain samples from intractable posterior distributions. Unfortunately, MCMC algorithms are typically serial, and do not scale to the large…
We propose a robust adaptive Model Predictive Control (MPC) strategy with online set-based estimation for constrained linear systems with unknown parameters and bounded disturbances. A sample-based test applied to predicted trajectories is…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are simple and extremely powerful techniques to sample from almost arbitrary distributions. The flaw in practice is that it can take a large and/or unknown amount of time to converge to the…
Exact approximations of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a general emerging class of sampling algorithms. One of the main ideas behind exact approximations consists of replacing intractable quantities required to run standard…
This paper is concerned with ergodic properties of inhomogeneous Markov processes. Since the transition probabilities depend on initial times, the existing methods to obtain invariant measures for homogeneous Markov processes are not…
An irreversible Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm with skew detailed balance conditions originally proposed by Turitsyn et al. is extended to general discrete systems on the basis of the Metropolis-Hastings scheme. To evaluate the…
Given a real symmetric positive semi-definite matrix E, and an approximation S that is a sum of n independent matrix-valued random variables, we present bounds on the relative error in S due to randomization. The bounds do not depend on the…
Random Walk Metropolis Hastings (RWMH) algorithm, is quite inefficient in high dimensions because of its abysmally slow acceptance rate. The slow acceptance rate results from the fact that RWMH separately updates each coordinate of the…
The particle Gibbs (PG) sampler is a systematic way of using a particle filter within Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). This results in an off-the-shelf Markov kernel on the space of state trajectories, which can be used to simulate from the…
A generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator is unreliable for a large number of moment conditions, that is, it is comparable, or larger than the sample size. While classical GMM literature proposes several provisions to this problem,…
Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods for estimating integrals are attractive since the resulting estimators typically converge at a faster rate than pseudo-random Monte Carlo. However, they can be difficult to set up on arbitrary posterior…